Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Parc des Princes Sat, 2 May - 3:00 PM
Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain PSG
2 – 2
Lorient LOR
Full Time Sat, 2 May 3:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Warren Zaïre-Emery - 62'
Ibrahim Mbaye - 6'
Goal
|
Goal
Aiyegun Tosin - 78'
Pablo Pagis - 12'

CONTEXT

Paris Saint Germain hosted Lorient in a match that concluded 2-2. The halftime score was 1-1, maintaining parity into the second half. PSG controlled 69% of possession against Lorient's 31%, generating sustained pressure but conceding twice on the break. As the stronger team, PSG's draw reflects a moderate structural deviation of 9.4%. No red cards were shown, and no notable second-half adjustments occurred. Efficiency remained in line with assessments, while the result achieved market alignment. Lacking xG data, chance quality alignment is unavailable. Lorient's resilience neutralized PSG's dominance, securing a point through clinical finishing from limited opportunities. The even halftime score underscored early balance, with both sides scoring once before the break.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Moderate structural deviation of 9.4% occurred for Paris Saint Germain.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome was fully market aligned.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable as data was null.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or major events influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards issued, so no distortion present.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Dechepy

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Haulbert

1st Assistant

G. Pasqualotti

2nd Assistant

F. Benchabane

4th Official

Paris Saint Germain L. Martínez García
L. Martínez García
VS
Lorient O. Pantaloni
O. Pantaloni
2.37
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.52
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Nantes Rank: 65 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 81 L
Toulouse Rank: 73 W
Nice Rank: 72 W
Monaco Rank: 80 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Strasbourg Rank: 78 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 81 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 80 L
Paris Rank: 72 D
Toulouse Rank: 73 L
Lens Rank: 82 W
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 7 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paris Saint Germain
7.17%
Draw
90.55%
Away Lorient
2.27%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
94.72
62.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paris Saint Germain
Lorient
Power Score
94.72
62.04
League Position
1
9
Global Rank
5
120

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paris Saint Germain — Opponent-weighted form score
Lorient — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paris Saint Germain Lorient

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Paris Saint Germain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lorient

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Paris Saint Germain ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lorient
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.87
18.06
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.06
40.87
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Paris Saint Germain +2.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Lorient -2.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Paris Saint Germain
Lorient
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paris Saint Germain ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lorient
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Paris Saint Germain Lorient
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Paris Saint Germain Lorient
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Paris Saint Germain
Lorient
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Paris Saint Germain
vs
Lorient
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Paris Saint Germain Lorient
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Paris Saint Germain 0.29
Lorient 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Paris Saint Germain Lorient
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Paris Saint Germain 0.17
Lorient 0.02
Paris Saint Germain
Lorient
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PSG had peak pressure around 35'.
  • PSG started the game with stronger pressure.
PSG Pressure LOR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PSG reached the top pressure at 35' (79.71).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paris Saint Germain PSG Home
31 matches
Lorient LOR Away
Match Record
17
Wins
7
7
Draws
7
7
Losses
17
Goals
57
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
57
+22
Goal Difference
-22

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:05:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
R. Bellucci Marin
Italy
89 R. Bellucci Marin
S. Mayulu
France
24 S. Mayulu
L. Lopes Beraldo
Brazil
4 L. Lopes Beraldo
W. Pacho Tenorio
Ecuador
51 W. Pacho Tenorio
L. Hernández Pi
France
21 L. Hernández Pi
K. Lee
South Korea
19 K. Lee
F. Ruiz Peña
Substitution
Spain
8 F. Ruiz Peña
P. Fernández Sarmiento
27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
I. Mbaye
Substitution
France
49 I. Mbaye
D. Doue
Substitution
France
14 D. Doue
B. Barcola
France
29 B. Barcola
Pitch
Y. Mvogo
Switzerland
38 Y. Mvogo
A. Faye
Senegal
25 A. Faye
M. Talbi
Tunisia
3 M. Talbi
N. Adjei
Ghana
32 N. Adjei
K. Kouassi
Burkina Faso
43 K. Kouassi
N. Cadiou
France
8 N. Cadiou
L. Abergel
France
6 L. Abergel
P. Katseris
Substitution
Greece
77 P. Katseris
P. Pagis
Substitution
France
10 P. Pagis
A. Ebong Avon
Substitution
Cameroon
62 A. Ebong Avon
Bamba Dieng
Substitution
Senegal
12 Bamba Dieng

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Parc des Princes
Capacity :
48583
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bastien Dechepy
Julien Haulbert
Gwenaël Pasqualotti
Faouzi Benchabane

Statistics

Possession
PSG
66%
LOR
34%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 3
84 Dangerous attacks 12
69 Possession 31
12 Corners 2
7 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

16 Dribble Attempts 12
8 Successful Headers 2
9 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Assists 1
27 Throwins 10
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
3 Goal Kicks 15
14 Goal Attempts 6
49 Ball Safe 71
3 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Injuries 1
3 Substitutions 4

Attacking

129 Attacks 44
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

565 Successful Passes 232
91 Successful Passes Percentage 80
619 Passes 289
42 Long Passes 54
28 Successful Long Passes 27
67 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
15 Key Passes 4

Defensive

13 Tackles 12
4 Interceptions 14
36 Duels Won 27
1 Saves 4

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 2
29 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Bastien Dechepy

Starting XI ▼

89
Renato Marin
Renato Marin Goalkeeper
6.24
4
Lucas Beraldo
Lucas Beraldo Defender
7.23
21
Lucas Hernández
Lucas Hernández Defender
6.95
24
Senny Mayulu
Senny Mayulu Defender
7.01
51
Willian Pacho
Willian Pacho Defender
6.93
8
Fabián Ruiz
Fabián Ruiz Midfielder
7.01
33
Warren Zaïre-Emery
Warren Zaïre-Emery
Midfielder61'
7.1
19
Kang-in Lee
Kang-in Lee Midfielder
7.18
27
Pedro Fernández
Pedro Fernández Midfielder
6.81
14
Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué Attacker
7.18
57
Pierre Mounguengue
Pierre Mounguengue
Attacker75'
5.49
29
Bradley Barcola
Bradley Barcola Attacker
7.13
49
Ibrahim Mbaye
Ibrahim Mbaye Attacker
6.8
87
João Neves
João Neves
Midfielder62'
7.19
Referee : Bastien Dechepy

Starting XI ▼

38
Yvon Mvogo
Yvon Mvogo Goalkeeper
6.86
3
Montassar Talbi
Montassar Talbi Defender
6.8
25
Abdoulaye Faye
Abdoulaye Faye Defender
6.62
32
Nathaniel Adjei
Nathaniel Adjei Defender
6.61
6
Laurent Abergel
Laurent Abergel Midfielder
6.81
8
Noah Doriann Cadiou
Noah Doriann Cadiou Midfielder
6.8
43
Arsène Kouassi
Arsène Kouassi Midfielder
6.92
77
Panos Katseris
Panos Katseris Midfielder
6.69
44
Darlin Yongwa
Darlin Yongwa
Defender80'
6.57
10
Pablo Pagis
Pablo Pagis Attacker
7.27
29
Karim Dermane
Karim Dermane
Midfielder72'
6.74
12
Bamba Dieng
Bamba Dieng Attacker
6.91
15
Aiyegun Tosin
Aiyegun Tosin
Attacker72'
6.68
62
Arthur Avom
Arthur Avom Attacker
6.95
17
Jean-Victor Makengo
Jean-Victor Makengo
Midfielder73'
6.92

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Noah Doriann Cadiou
Penalty disallowed
90+6'
90+1'
Event
Darlin Yongwa
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Darlin Yongwa → Panos Katseris
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Aiyegun Tosin
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Pierre Mounguengue → Désiré Doué
6th Substitution
75'
73'
Event
Jean-Victor Makengo → Arthur Avom
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Karim Dermane → Pablo Pagis
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Aiyegun Tosin → Bamba Dieng
4th Substitution
Event
João Neves → Ibrahim Mbaye
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Warren Zaïre-Emery
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
62'
Event
Warren Zaïre-Emery → Fabián Ruiz
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Lucas Hernández
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
47'
1ST-HALF
12'
Event
Pablo Pagis
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Ibrahim Mbaye
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
6'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Darlin Yongwa receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
The VAR decision results in the penalty being cancelled.
90
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Fernandez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Fernandez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Senny Mayulu takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
88
Attempt Attempt
Joao Neves takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Bradley Barcola takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
85
Update Update
Lucas Hernandez takes a header, but it hits the post.
85
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Hernandez takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Tosin Aiyegun takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Mounguengue's right-footed shot is blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Mounguengue's left-footed shot is saved.
80
Update Update
Darlin Yongwa is coming on for Panos Katseris.
78
Update Update
Goal! Tosin Aiyegun scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
78
Attempt Attempt
Tosin Aiyegun scores with a right-footed shot.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Pierre Mounguengue comes on for Desire Doue.
73
Update Update
Jean Victor Makengo replaces Arthur Avom.
72
Update Update
Dermane Karim comes on for Pablo Pagis.
72
Update Update
Tosin Aiyegun comes on for Ahmadou Bamba Dieng.
71
Attempt Attempt
Lee Kang In takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
62
Update Update
Joao Neves comes on for Ibrahim Mbaye.
62
Attempt Attempt
Warren Zaire-Emery takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
61
Update Update
Warren Zaire-Emery replaces Fabian Ruiz Pena.
57
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Mbaye takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Senny Mayulu takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Montassar Talbi attempts a header but misses the shot.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucas Hernandez receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue's right-footed shot is blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Fabian Ruiz Pena takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Lee Kang In takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Hernandez takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
34
Attempt Attempt
Senny Mayulu's right-footed shot is saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Bradley Barcola takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Senny Mayulu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
12
Update Update
Goal! Pablo Pagis scores, making it 1-1.
12
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Pagis scores with a left-footed shot.
10
Attempt Attempt
Montassar Talbi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Update Update
Goal! Ibrahim Mbaye scores, making it 1-0.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw underscores Lorient's effectiveness in countering PSG's possession dominance, earning a valuable point away. PSG's 69% possession failed to yield a win, marking a moderate 9.4% deviation for the stronger side. With efficiency in line and market alignment confirmed, the result reflects balanced execution absent distorting factors like red cards. Halftime parity at 1-1 set the stage for a competitive finish. Both teams demonstrated capability, PSG in control and Lorient in opportunism, maintaining league standings without major shifts.

Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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