Grazer AK vs WSG Tirol Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena Sat, 2 May - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Grazer AK GAK
4 Winner 0
WSG Tirol WSG
Full Time Sat, 2 May 3:00 PM
Round 8 Relegation Round
Christian Lichtenberger - 70'
Mark Grosse - 54', 42'
Jacob Italiano - 32'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Grazer AK secured a convincing 4-0 win over WSG Tirol in their home match, leading 2-0 at halftime with goals reflecting their control. Home possession stood at 55% compared to the visitors' 45%, aligning with Grazer AK's status as the stronger team. The final score demonstrated a significant structural deviation of 58% in favor of Grazer AK, marking a substantial outperformance relative to pre-match expectations where home win probability was assessed at 42%. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half adjustments reported. The absence of xG data limits deeper shot quality analysis, but the result was consistent with market alignments. Grazer AK's efficiency remained in line with expectations, contributing to a clean sheet and multi-goal margin. This outcome reinforces Grazer AK's dominance in the fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Grazer AK showed a significant 58% deviation outperforming pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiency finished in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned fully with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No impactful events like red cards or adjustments occurred.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards issued, so no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Untergasser

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Brandner

1st Assistant

M. Diesenberger

2nd Assistant

D. Divkovic

4th Official

Grazer AK F. Feldhofer
F. Feldhofer
VS
WSG Tirol P. Semlic
P. Semlic
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 57 L
Ried Rank: 52 L
Ried Rank: 51 D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 53 L
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 53 W
WSG Tirol Rank: 52 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ried Rank: 53 W
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 54 D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 53 D
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 48 L
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 58 W
Grazer AK Rank: 52 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Grazer AK
41.98%
Draw
30.1%
Away WSG Tirol
27.91%

Movement

Changes since opening
Grazer AK
-55.62%
Draw
+28.19%
WSG Tirol
+27.42%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.48
51.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Grazer AK
WSG Tirol
Power Score
52.48
51.8
League Position
11
7
Global Rank
717
731

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Grazer AK — Opponent-weighted form score
WSG Tirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Grazer AK WSG Tirol

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Grazer AK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

WSG Tirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Grazer AK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy WSG Tirol
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.18
22.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.89
19.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Grazer AK -0.31 Efficiency Index
vs
WSG Tirol +0.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Grazer AK
WSG Tirol
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Grazer AK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy WSG Tirol
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Grazer AK WSG Tirol
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Grazer AK WSG Tirol
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Grazer AK
WSG Tirol
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Grazer AK
vs
WSG Tirol
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Grazer AK WSG Tirol
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Grazer AK 0.29
WSG Tirol 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Grazer AK WSG Tirol
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Grazer AK 0.00
WSG Tirol 0.13
Grazer AK
WSG Tirol
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GAK had peak pressure around 76'.
  • WSG started the game with stronger pressure.
GAK Pressure WSG Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GAK reached the top pressure at 76' (77.47).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Grazer AK GAK Home
7 matches
WSG Tirol WSG Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
4
Draws
4
1
Losses
2
Goals
9
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
9
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
3.01
xG
0.35
0.35
xGA
3.01

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:05:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
F. Stolz
Austria
12 F. Stolz
B. Owusu
France
82 B. Owusu
D. Pines
2 D. Pines
M. Kreuzriegler
Substitution
Austria
4 M. Kreuzriegler
M. Olesen
Substitution
Luxembourg
6 M. Olesen
J. Italiano
Australia
14 J. Italiano
T. Schriebl
Austria
20 T. Schriebl
C. Lichtenberger
Substitution
Austria
10 C. Lichtenberger
L. Klassen
Russia
32 L. Klassen
M. Grosse
Substitution
Austria
11 M. Grosse
R. Harakaté
Substitution
France
22 R. Harakaté
Pitch
A. Stejskal
Czech Republic
40 A. Stejskal
D. Gugganig
Austria
3 D. Gugganig
J. Lawrence
Substitution
Germany
5 J. Lawrence
M. Boras
Substitution
Croatia
23 M. Boras
L. Sulzbacher
Austria
6 L. Sulzbacher
M. Taferner
Substitution
Austria
30 M. Taferner
V. Müller
Austria
4 V. Müller
J. Naschberger
Austria
17 J. Naschberger
N. Frederiksen
Substitution
Denmark
8 N. Frederiksen
M. Wels
Austria
37 M. Wels
L. Hinterseer
Substitution
Austria
16 L. Hinterseer

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 8 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Merkur Arena
Capacity :
16764
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Roland Brandner
Achim Untergasser
Mario Diesenberger
Davor Divkovic

Statistics

Possession
GAK
54%
WSG
46%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
9 Shots 9
31 Dangerous attacks 26
55 Possession 45
4 Corners 5
17 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

79 Ball Safe 70
0 Injuries 1
7 Goal Attempts 5
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
7 Successful Dribbles 3
17 Dribble Attempts 9
27 Throwins 19
2 Goal Kicks 8
3 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

74 Attacks 91
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

28 Successful Long Passes Percentage 23
72 Successful Passes Percentage 70
80 Long Passes 61
380 Passes 300
22 Successful Long Passes 14
274 Successful Passes 210
7 Key Passes 4

Defensive

56 Duels Won 62
14 Tackles 27
3 Saves 2
6 Interceptions 5

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 9
2 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

11 Fouls 17
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Achim Untergasser

Starting XI ▼

12
Franz Stolz
Franz Stolz Goalkeeper
6.83
2
Donovan Pines
Donovan Pines Defender
6.93
4
Martin Kreuzriegler
Martin Kreuzriegler Defender
6.61
3
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen
Defender75'
6.53
82
Beres Owusu
Beres Owusu Defender
6.85
6
Mathias Olesen
Mathias Olesen Midfielder
6.85
8
Tobias Koch
Tobias Koch
Midfielder87'
6.74
10
Christian Lichtenberger
Christian Lichtenberger Midfielder
6.61
24
Tim Paumgartner
Tim Paumgartner
Midfielder87'
6.5
14
Jacob Italiano
Jacob Italiano Midfielder
6.91
20
Thorsten Schriebl
Thorsten Schriebl Midfielder
6.9
32
Leon Klassen
Leon Klassen Midfielder
7.02
11
Mark Grosse
Mark Grosse Attacker
2
7.14
28
Dominik Frieser
Dominik Frieser
Attacker86'
6.61
22
Ramiz Harakate
Ramiz Harakate Attacker
7.05
7
Murat Satin
Murat Satin
Midfielder58'
6.6
Referee : Achim Untergasser

Starting XI ▼

40
Adam Stejskal
Adam Stejskal Goalkeeper
6.65
3
David Gugganig
David Gugganig Defender
6.63
5
Jamie Lawrence
Jamie Lawrence Defender
7.02
14
David Kubatta
David Kubatta
Defender62'
6.56
23
Marco Boras
Marco Boras Defender
6.94
27
David Jaunegg
David Jaunegg
Defender67'
6.41
4
Valentino Müller
Valentino Müller Midfielder
7.08
6
Lukas Sulzbacher
Lukas Sulzbacher Midfielder
6.65
17
Johannes Naschberger
Johannes Naschberger Midfielder
6.68
30
Matthäus Taferner
Matthäus Taferner Midfielder
7.17
21
Yannick Vötter
Yannick Vötter
Attacker62'
6.59
8
N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen Attacker
7.2
10
Thomas Sabitzer
Thomas Sabitzer
Attacker62'
6.67
16
Lukas Hinterseer
Lukas Hinterseer Attacker
6.52
19
Christian Huetz
Christian Huetz
Attacker76'
6.4
37
Moritz Wels
Moritz Wels Attacker
6.7

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
David Jaunegg
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Tobias Koch → Mathias Olesen
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Tim Paumgartner → Christian Lichtenberger
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Dominik Frieser → Mark Grosse
8th Substitution
86'
76'
Event
Christian Huetz → Lukas Hinterseer
7th Substitution
Event
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen → Martin Kreuzriegler
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Christian Lichtenberger
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
70'
67'
Event
David Jaunegg → Marco Boras
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Yannick Vötter → Matthäus Taferner
4th Substitution
62'
Event
David Kubatta → Jamie Lawrence
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Thomas Sabitzer → N. Frederiksen
3rd Substitution
Event
Murat Satin → Ramiz Harakate
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Mark Grosse
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
54'
48'
Event
Jamie Lawrence
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Christian Lichtenberger
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+3'
Event
Mark Grosse
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
42'
Event
Jacob Italiano
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
32'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
David Gugganig receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Christian Huetz takes a shot with his head, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Frieser takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Johannes Naschberger takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Update Update
Dominik Frieser replaces Mark Grosse.
86
Update Update
Tobias Koch comes on for Christian Lichtenberger.
86
Update Update
Tim Paumgartner replaces Mathias Olesen.
76
Update Update
Christian Huetz comes on for Lukas Hinterseer.
75
Update Update
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen is on, and Martin Kreuzriegler is off.
70
Attempt Attempt
Christian Lichtenberger scores with a left-footed shot.
69
Attempt Attempt
Martin Kreuzriegler attempts a header but misses the shot.
66
Update Update
David Jaunegg replaces Marco Boras.
62
Update Update
Yannick Votter comes on for Matthaus Taferner.
62
Update Update
Thomas Sabitzer is on, and Nikolai Baden Frederiksen is off.
62
Substitution Substitution
David Kubatta is substituted for Jamie Lawrence.
60
Attempt Attempt
Beres Owusu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Christian Lichtenberger takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
57
Substitution Substitution
Murat Satin is substituted for Ramiz Harakate.
54
Attempt Attempt
Mark Grosse scores with a left-footed shot.
51
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Hinterseer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jamie Lawrence receives a yellow card.
44
Attempt Attempt
Nikolai Baden Frederiksen takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Jamie Lawrence takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Mark Grosse takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
32
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Italiano takes a left-footed shot and scores.
28
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Hinterseer takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Italiano scores with a left-footed shot.
20
Attempt Attempt
Valentino Muller takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
20
Attempt Attempt
Valentino Muller takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Moritz Wels takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Grazer AK exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Grazer AK vs WSG Tirol preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Admiral Bundesliga, Austria View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ