Ried vs Blau-Weiß Linz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
josko ARENA Sat, 2 May - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Ried Ried
2 Winner 0
Blau-Weiß Linz BWL
Full Time Sat, 2 May 3:00 PM
Round 8 Relegation Round
Kingstone Mutandwa - 81' (P)
Ante Bajic - 29'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Ried clinched a convincing 2-0 win against Blau-Weiß Linz, defying pre-match perceptions that positioned the visitors as the stronger outfit. The home side struck first in the opening half, leading 1-0 at halftime, and added a second goal after the break to seal the victory. Possession was evenly split at 50% apiece, underscoring a balanced affair where Ried's clinical finishing made the difference. No red cards disrupted play, allowing the match to flow naturally without disciplinary distortions. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 59.9%, with Ried outperforming expectations in a result that aligned with market assessments. Efficiency stayed in line throughout, though xG data was unavailable for deeper chance quality analysis. Ried's resilience turned the tide, capitalizing on limited opportunities while frustrating Blau-Weiß Linz's efforts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Ried's 2-0 victory represented a 59.9% significant structural deviation favoring the home team.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned fully with pre-match market evaluations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were indeterminable without underlying metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Talic

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Rekik

2nd Assistant

M. Hartl

1st Assistant

M. Baumann

4th Official

Ried M. Senft
M. Senft
VS
Blau-Weiß Linz M. Köllner
M. Köllner
1.39
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.06
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
WSG Tirol Rank: 52 L
Grazer AK Rank: 52 W
Grazer AK Rank: 51 D
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 59 D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 53 W
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 53 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 54 W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 59 W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 58 D
WSG Tirol Rank: 54 W
Grazer AK Rank: 52 L
Ried Rank: 54 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ried
40.09%
Draw
29.11%
Away Blau-Weiß Linz
30.8%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ried
-57.34%
Draw
+26.73%
Blau-Weiß Linz
+30.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.21
52.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ried
Blau-Weiß Linz
Power Score
47.21
52.59
League Position
9
12
Global Rank
676
712

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ried — Opponent-weighted form score
Blau-Weiß Linz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ried Blau-Weiß Linz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ried

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Blau-Weiß Linz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ried ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Blau-Weiß Linz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.80
32.10
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.10
25.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ried -0.53 Efficiency Index
vs
Blau-Weiß Linz +0.53 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ried
Blau-Weiß Linz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ried ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Blau-Weiß Linz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ried Blau-Weiß Linz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ried Blau-Weiß Linz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ried
Blau-Weiß Linz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ried
vs
Blau-Weiß Linz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ried Blau-Weiß Linz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ried 0.29
Blau-Weiß Linz 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ried Blau-Weiß Linz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ried 0.00
Blau-Weiß Linz 0.05
Ried
Blau-Weiß Linz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BWL had peak pressure around 23'.
  • Ried started the game with stronger pressure.
Ried Pressure BWL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BWL reached the top pressure at 23' (93.92).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ried Ried Home
3 matches
Blau-Weiß Linz BWL Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
6
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
1.40
xG
4.26
4.26
xGA
1.40

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:05:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
A. Leitner
Austria
1 A. Leitner
P. Pomer
Austria
17 P. Pomer
N. Havenaar
Japan
5 N. Havenaar
M. Sollbauer
Austria
23 M. Sollbauer
O. Steurer
Germany
30 O. Steurer
M. Maart
South Africa
6 M. Maart
N. Bajlicz
Substitution
Austria
28 N. Bajlicz
A. Bajic
Substitution
Austria
12 A. Bajic
Y. Nasrawe
Substitution
Germany
19 Y. Nasrawe
J. Boguo
Substitution
15 J. Boguo
K. Mutandwa
Substitution
Zambia
7 K. Mutandwa
Pitch
N. Mantl
Germany
58 N. Mantl
F. Strauss
Austria
2 F. Strauss
M. Maranda
Austria
15 M. Maranda
A. Pasic
Austria
17 A. Pasic
S. Pirkl
Substitution
Austria
60 S. Pirkl
A. Briedl
Austria
19 A. Briedl
S. Seidl
Substitution
Austria
20 S. Seidl
N. Maier
Substitution
Switzerland
30 N. Maier
D. Reiter
Substitution
Austria
29 D. Reiter
S. Weissman
Israel
18 S. Weissman
R. Sales
Substitution
Brazil
9 R. Sales

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 8 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
josko ARENA
Capacity :
5000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Arnes Talic
Amar Rekik
Mattias Hartl
Manuel Baumann

Statistics

Possession
Ried
50%
BWL
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 0
11 Shots 14
38 Dangerous attacks 41
50 Possession 50
5 Corners 9
11 Free kicks 8
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Assists 0
18 Throwins 27
5 Successful Dribbles 8
17 Dribble Attempts 16
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
14 Goal Kicks 7
10 Goal Attempts 9
1 Hit Woodwork 0
75 Ball Safe 78
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 0
74 Attacks 91

Possession

71 Successful Passes Percentage 66
65 Long Passes 76
24 Successful Long Passes 30
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
219 Successful Passes 198
309 Passes 298
9 Key Passes 7

Defensive

5 Saves 2
6 Interceptions 10
62 Duels Won 47
13 Tackles 15

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 21
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
6 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Arnes Talic

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Leitner
Andreas Leitner Goalkeeper
6.84
5
Benjamin Garcia
Benjamin Garcia Defender
7
17
Philipp Pomer
Philipp Pomer Defender
6.94
23
Michael Sollbauer
Michael Sollbauer Defender
6.76
30
Oliver Steurer
Oliver Steurer Defender
6.87
6
Yusuf Maart
Yusuf Maart Midfielder
6.99
12
Ante Bajic
Ante Bajic Midfielder
6.98
25
Dominik Kirnbauer
Dominik Kirnbauer
Defender83'
6.42
15
Joris Boguo
Joris Boguo Midfielder
6.51
18
Fabian Rossdorfer
Fabian Rossdorfer
Midfielder59'
6.69
19
Yussef Nasrawe
Yussef Nasrawe Midfielder
6.65
26
Jonas Mayer
Jonas Mayer
Midfielder59'
6.64
28
Nicolas Bajlicz
Nicolas Bajlicz Midfielder
6.78
8
Martin Rasner
Martin Rasner
Midfielder59'
6.51
7
Kingstone Mutandwa
Kingstone Mutandwa Attacker
7.01
9
Saliou Sané
Saliou Sané
Attacker89'
6.42
Referee : Arnes Talic

Starting XI ▼

58
Nico Mantl
Nico Mantl Goalkeeper
6.6
2
Fabio Varesi-Strauss
Fabio Varesi-Strauss Defender
6.72
15
Manuel Maranda
Manuel Maranda Defender
6.83
17
Alem Pasic
Alem Pasic Defender
6.66
19
Alexander Briedl
Alexander Briedl Midfielder
6.85
20
Simon Seidl
Simon Seidl Midfielder
6.97
6
Mamadou Fofana
Mamadou Fofana
Midfielder77'
6.64
29
Dominik Reiter
Dominik Reiter Midfielder
6.8
5
Isak Dahlqvist
Isak Dahlqvist
Midfielder68'
6.72
30
Nico Maier
Nico Maier Midfielder
6.86
11
João Luiz
João Luiz
Midfielder84'
6.54
60
Simon Pirkl
Simon Pirkl Midfielder
6.62
23
David Bumberger
David Bumberger
Defender77'
6.74
9
Ronivaldo
Ronivaldo Attacker
6.94
10
Paul Mensah
Paul Mensah
Attacker84'
6.56
18
Shon Weissman
Shon Weissman Attacker
6.98

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Saliou Sané → Kingstone Mutandwa
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Oliver Steurer
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
89'
84'
Event
João Luiz → Nico Maier
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Paul Mensah → Ronivaldo
9th Substitution
Event
Dominik Kirnbauer → Ante Bajic
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Kingstone Mutandwa
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
81'
78'
Event
Fabio Varesi-Strauss
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
77'
Event
David Bumberger → Simon Pirkl
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Mamadou Fofana → Simon Seidl
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Simon Seidl
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Isak Dahlqvist → Dominik Reiter
4th Substitution
Event
Jonas Mayer → Yussef Nasrawe
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Martin Rasner → Nicolas Bajlicz
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Fabian Rossdorfer → Joris Boguo
3rd Substitution
59'
1ST-HALF
Event
Maximilian Senft
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Joris Boguo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
Event
Ante Bajic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
33'
Event
Ante Bajic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
29'
Event
Ante Bajic
Penalty cancelled
25'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Briedl takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
89
Update Update
Saliou Sane is on, and Kingstone Mutandwa is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Kingstone Mutandwa takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Update Update
Joao Luiz replaces Nico Maier.
83
Substitution Substitution
Paul Mensah is substituted for Ronivaldo Bernardo Sales.
82
Update Update
Dominik Kirnbauer comes on for Ante Bajic.
81
Attempt Attempt
Kingstone Mutandwa takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
77
Update Update
David Bumberger is on, and Simon Pipkl is off.
76
Update Update
Mamadou Fofana comes on for Simon Seidl.
70
Attempt Attempt
Fabian Rossdorfer attempts a header but misses the shot.
67
Update Update
Isak Dahlqvist replaces Dominik Reiter.
58
Substitution Substitution
Martin Rasner is substituted for Nicolas Bajlicz.
58
Update Update
Fabian Rossdorfer replaces Jores Boguo.
58
Update Update
Jonas Mayer is on, and Jussef Nasrawe is off.
55
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Reiter's right-footed shot is saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Ronivaldo Bernardo Sales takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jores Boguo receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shon Weissman takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shon Weissman takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Simon Seidl takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Bajlicz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Nikki Havenaar's header is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Ante Bajic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
28
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Reiter's right-footed shot is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Kingstone Mutandwa attempts a header but misses the shot.
25
Update Update
The VAR decision results in the penalty being cancelled.
22
Attempt Attempt
Simon Seidl takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Shon Weissman takes a right-footed shot but misses.
20
Attempt Attempt
Shon Weissman takes a right-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Ronivaldo Bernardo Sales takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Kingstone Mutandwa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Joris Boguo's right-footed shot is blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Ante Bajic takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
8
Attempt Attempt
Ronivaldo Bernardo Sales takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
8
Attempt Attempt
Shon Weissman takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
5
Attempt Attempt
Joris Boguo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Shon Weissman takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Ried's 2-0 triumph over Blau-Weiß Linz highlighted their ability to exceed expectations in a balanced encounter, overcoming the visitors' favored status through sharp execution. With halftime at 1-0 and even possession, the hosts maintained composure to extend their lead post-interval. The significant 59.9% deviation underscores Ried's opportunistic edge, while market alignment confirms the result's plausibility despite the surprise element. Absent xG insights or disruptions like reds, this win bolsters Ried's momentum, exposing Blau-Weiß Linz's failure to convert parity into points. A testament to tactical discipline, Ried's performance sets a strong tone for upcoming fixtures.

Ried vs Blau-Weiß Linz preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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