CSKA Moskva vs Zenit Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
VEB Arena Sat, 2 May - 4:00 PM
Premier League
CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva
1 Winner 3
Zenit ZSP
Full Time Sat, 2 May 4:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Ivan Oblyakov - 4' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Aleksandr Sobolev - 51'
Igor Diveev - 30'

CONTEXT

CSKA Moskva faced Zenit in a Russian Premier League match at home, concluding with a 1-3 defeat for the hosts. The halftime score stood at 1-1, reflecting a balanced opening period before Zenit asserted dominance in the second half. CSKA managed 43% possession against Zenit's 57%, yet failed to convert limited opportunities effectively. No red cards were issued, ensuring continuous play without disciplinary interruptions. Zenit, identified as the stronger team, secured the win with a significant structural deviation of 100% in their favor. Efficiency shift aligned with norms, and market alignment held true. Absent xG data prevents precise chance quality assessment, but the outcome underscores Zenit's superior execution and post-halftime adjustments. The result highlights Zenit's control despite even early exchanges.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed significant structural deviation of 100% favoring Zenit.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as true.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable from null data.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Tanashev

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Khatuev

2nd Assistant

N. Novikov

4th Official

R. Mukhtarov

1st Assistant

CSKA Moskva F. Celestini
F. Celestini
VS
Zenit S. Semak
S. Semak
1.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.31
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 D
Rostov Rank: 60 D
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 54 D
Sochi Rank: 47 L
Akron Rank: 56 W
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 56 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 71 D
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 W
Krasnodar Rank: 76 D
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 58 W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 15 - 19
19

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home CSKA Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Zenit
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.67
80.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
CSKA Moskva
Zenit
Power Score
69.67
80.9
League Position
6
1
Global Rank
212
55

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
CSKA Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Zenit — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) CSKA Moskva Zenit

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

CSKA Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zenit

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zenit
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.00
33.51
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.51
30.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
CSKA Moskva -0.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Zenit +0.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Zenit
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zenit
Created Set-piece attacking threat
CSKA Moskva Zenit
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
CSKA Moskva Zenit
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Zenit
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
CSKA Moskva
vs
Zenit
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
CSKA Moskva Zenit
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
CSKA Moskva 0.29
Zenit 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
CSKA Moskva Zenit
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
CSKA Moskva 0.05
Zenit 0.03
CSKA Moskva
Zenit
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ZSP had peak pressure around 68'.
  • CSKA Moskva started the game with stronger pressure.
CSKA Moskva Pressure ZSP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ZSP reached the top pressure at 68' (91.86).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 45 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva Home
45 matches
Zenit ZSP Away
Match Record
11
Wins
19
15
Draws
15
19
Losses
11
Goals
43
Goals Scored
55
55
Goals Conceded
43
-12
Goal Difference
+12

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:05:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
V. Torop
Russia
49 V. Torop
M. Gajić
Serbia
22 M. Gajić
J. Da Silva Marcelino
Brazil
4 J. Da Silva Marcelino
K. Danilov
Russia
79 K. Danilov
D. Krugovoi
Russia
3 D. Krugovoi
D. Barinov
Russia
6 D. Barinov
M. Kislyak
Substitution
Russia
31 M. Kislyak
L. Gondou
Substitution
Argentina
9 L. Gondou
I. Oblyakov
Substitution
Russia
10 I. Oblyakov
M. Popović
Substitution
Serbia
20 M. Popović
T. Musaev
Substitution
Russia
11 T. Musaev
Pitch
D. Adamov
Russia
16 D. Adamov
D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
Brazil
3 D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
M. Mota Filho
Brazil
33 M. Mota Filho
I. Diveev
Russia
78 I. Diveev
V. Drkušić
Slovenia
6 V. Drkušić
M. Valle da Silva
Brazil
8 M. Valle da Silva
W. Barrios Terán
Colombia
5 W. Barrios Terán
P. Silva dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
20 P. Silva dos Santos
M. Glushenkov
Substitution
Russia
10 M. Glushenkov
L. Rosa da Silva
Brazil
11 L. Rosa da Silva
A. Sobolev
Substitution
Russia
7 A. Sobolev

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
VEB Arena
Capacity :
30457
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Inal Tanashev
Adlan Khatuev
Nikita Novikov
Rustam Mukhtarov

Statistics

Possession
CSKA Moskva
43%
ZSP
57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 9
38 Dangerous attacks 62
43 Possession 57
2 Corners 7
8 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

84 Ball Safe 81
5 Substitutions 3
0 Injuries 2
5 Goal Attempts 12
32 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
9 Goal Kicks 8
0 Assists 3
19 Dribble Attempts 9
2 Penalties 0
9 Successful Headers 20
14 Throwins 18
6 Successful Dribbles 5

Attacking

92 Attacks 98

Possession

320 Successful Passes 434
381 Passes 508
50 Long Passes 79
84 Successful Passes Percentage 85
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 63
22 Successful Long Passes 50

Defensive

32 Duels Won 55
10 Tackles 15
9 Interceptions 4
6 Saves 0

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 22
2 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

15 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Inal Tanashev

Starting XI ▼

49
Vladislav Torop
Vladislav Torop Goalkeeper
6.89
3
Danil Krugovoy
Danil Krugovoy Defender
7.06
4
João Victor
João Victor Defender
7
22
Milan Gajić
Milan Gajić Defender
6.73
79
Kirill Danilov
Kirill Danilov Defender
6.8
6
Dmitri Barinov
Dmitri Barinov Midfielder
7.14
9
Luciano Gondou
Luciano Gondou Midfielder
6.62
37
Henrique Carmo
Henrique Carmo
Attacker66'
6.74
10
Ivan Oblyakov
Ivan Oblyakov Midfielder
7.43
7
Matheus Alves Nascimento
Matheus Alves Nascimento
Midfielder82'
6.86
20
Matija Popović
Matija Popović Midfielder
6.64
2
Matheus Reis
Matheus Reis
Defender57'
6.81
31
Matvey Kislyak
Matvey Kislyak Midfielder
7.21
97
Maksim Voronov
Maksim Voronov
Attacker82'
6.58
11
Tamerlan Musaev
Tamerlan Musaev Attacker
6.86
18
Danila Kozlov
Danila Kozlov
Midfielder82'
6.56
Referee : Inal Tanashev

Starting XI ▼

16
Denis Adamov
Denis Adamov Goalkeeper
7.03
3
Douglas Santos
Douglas Santos Defender
7.06
6
Vanja Drkusic
Vanja Drkusic Defender
6.75
33
Nino
Nino Defender
7.07
78
Igor Diveev
Igor Diveev Defender
7
5
Wilmar Barrios
Wilmar Barrios Midfielder
6.94
8
Wendel
Wendel Midfielder
7.09
10
Maksim Glushenkov
Maksim Glushenkov Midfielder
7.36
61
Daniil Kondakov
Daniil Kondakov
Midfielder82'
6.68
11
Luiz Henrique
Luiz Henrique Midfielder
7.05
20
Pedro
Pedro Midfielder
6.92
66
Román Vega
Román Vega
Defender88'
6.89
7
Aleksandr Sobolev
Aleksandr Sobolev Attacker
6.96
21
Aleksandr Erokhin
Aleksandr Erokhin
Midfielder90+3'
6.58

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Aleksandr Erokhin → Aleksandr Sobolev
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Román Vega → Pedro
7th Substitution
Event
Danila Kozlov → Tamerlan Musaev
5th Substitution
82'
Event
Matheus Alves Nascimento → Ivan Oblyakov
3rd Substitution
82'
Event
Maksim Voronov → Matvey Kislyak
6th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Daniil Kondakov → Maksim Glushenkov
4th Substitution
Event
Dmitri Barinov
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
76'
67'
Event
Maksim Glushenkov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Henrique Carmo → Luciano Gondou
2nd Substitution
66'
60'
Event
Luiz Henrique
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Milan Gajić
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Matheus Reis → Matija Popović
1st Substitution
57'
51'
Event
Aleksandr Sobolev
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Matija Popović
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Igor Diveev
Header / 1st Goal
19'
Event
Nino
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ivan Oblyakov
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
4'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Aleksandr Erokhin comes on for Alexander Sobolev.
90
Attempt Attempt
Vanja Drkusic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Vanja Drkusic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Update Update
Roman Vega replaces Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos.
82
Update Update
Danila Kozlov is on, and Tamerlan Musaev is off.
82
Update Update
Maksim Voronov is on, and Matvey Kislyak is off.
82
Update Update
Daniil Kondakov comes on for Maksim Glushenkov.
82
Update Update
Matheus Alves Nascimento is on, and Ivan Oblyakov is off.
81
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
77
Attempt Attempt
Tamerlan Musaev attempts a header but misses the shot.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dmitriy Barinov receives a yellow card.
73
Attempt Attempt
Matvey Kislyak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Wendel Valle da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
68
Update Update
Henrique Carmo is on, and Luciano Emilio Gondou Zanelli is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov's left-footed shot is saved.
60
Update Update
Goal! Luiz Henrique Andre Rosa da Silva scores, making it 1-3.
60
Attempt Attempt
Luiz Henrique Andre Rosa da Silva takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
57
Update Update
Matheus Reis de Lima comes on for Matija Popovic.
56
Attempt Attempt
Luiz Henrique Andre Rosa da Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Luiz Henrique Andre Rosa da Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
Update Update
Alexander Sobolev scores with a header.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matija Popovic receives a yellow card.
43
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Igor Diveev takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Wendel Valle da Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
30
Update Update
Igor Diveev scores with a header.
29
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov has a left-footed shot that is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Igor Diveev's header is saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
26
Attempt Attempt
Daniil Krugovoy takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Daniil Krugovoy takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Oblyakov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Nino of Marcilio Florencia Mota Filho.
16
Attempt Attempt
Matija Popovic's right-footed shot is blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Milan Gajic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Ivan Oblyakov scores, making it 1-0.
4
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Ivan Oblyakov with his left foot results in a goal.

CONCLUSION

Zenit's 1-3 triumph over CSKA Moskva affirms their stronger standing, with the halftime 1-1 tie giving way to second-half superiority via 57% possession and clinical finishing. Significant 100% structural deviation underscores Zenit's overperformance relative to baselines. Market alignment validates the result against pre-match frameworks, while efficiency remained consistent. Lacking xG metrics limits chance conversion insights, yet no red cards or events distorted proceedings, attributing the scoreline to tactical execution. CSKA's lower possession correlated with their single goal, exposing defensive vulnerabilities. This outcome reinforces Zenit's command in key metrics without external influences.

CSKA Moskva vs Zenit preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.