Vukovar vs Osijek Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Tomorrow - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Vukovar Vukovar
Versus
Osijek Osijek
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 4:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

Vukovar vs Osijek preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

In the 1. HNL Regular Season clash at Stadion Gradski vrt, Vukovar welcomes Osijek for the 2025/2026 campaign. Osijek arrives as the clear favorite, holding a substantial power score edge of 23.52 to Vukovar's 16.77, translating to a 6.8-point advantage that underscores their overall superiority. Form metrics further tilt the scales, with Osijek's impressive 22.67 rating dwarfing Vukovar's modest 10.89, suggesting momentum lies firmly with the visitors. Despite close league positions—Osijek at 9th and Vukovar at 10th—this matchup pits a higher-powered side against a resilient but outmatched home team. Limited advanced data on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces hampers deeper tactical insights, as xG stats remain unavailable with low-confidence proxies in play. Vukovar will need a stout defensive showing to counter Osijek's structural dominance, while exploiting any transitional lapses could prove key in an otherwise lopsided encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Osijek possesses a 6.8-point power advantage over Vukovar, with scores of 23.52 versus 16.77.
  • Form: Osijek's form score of 22.67 significantly outpaces Vukovar's 10.89.
  • Squad: Osijek ranks as the stronger team overall, sitting just above Vukovar in 9th versus 10th place.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG, using low-confidence proxy.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables absent for both teams with low confidence.
  • Market: Vukovar 31.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.1% (Δ+0%) | Osijek 40.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Vukovar T. Stipić
T. Stipić
VS
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
0.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Gorica Rank: L
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: D
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: D
Hajduk Split Rank: W
Varaždin Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vukovar
31.35%
Draw
28.14%
Away Osijek
40.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.77
23.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vukovar
Osijek
Power Score
16.77
23.52
League Position
10
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vukovar Osijek

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vukovar Vukovar Home
3 matches
Osijek Osijek Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
2
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-30T01:02:56+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Đaković
42 A. Đaković
A. Bosec
8 A. Bosec
M. Živković
14 M. Živković
V. Čaić
13 V. Čaić
K. Cabrajic
20 K. Cabrajic
E. Shabani
77 E. Shabani
J. Gurlica
35 J. Gurlica
?. Butić
27 ?. Butić
R. Gonzales
10 R. Gonzales
L. Banovec
28 L. Banovec
J. Puljić
21 J. Puljić
M. Malenica
31 M. Malenica
D. Čolina
38 D. Čolina
L. Jelenić
26 L. Jelenić
I. Kolarik
49 I. Kolarik
D. Bukvić
39 D. Bukvić
O. Petrusenko
16 O. Petrusenko
D. Mejía Moscoso
6 D. Mejía Moscoso
M. Jovičić
98 M. Jovičić
S. Akere
57 S. Akere
A. Jakupovic
17 A. Jakupovic
V. Bubanja
21 V. Bubanja

General Information

Date & Time
May 02, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity
1000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

42
Antonio Đaković
Antonio Đaković Goalkeeper
7.2
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic Centre Forward
7.04
8
Antonio Bosec
Antonio Bosec Right Back
6.23
10
Robin González
Robin González Attacking Midfield
6.89
13
Vito Caic
Vito Caic Left Back
6.57
14
Moreno Zivkovic
Moreno Zivkovic Right Back
6.54
20
Kristijan Cabrajic
Kristijan Cabrajic Left Back
6.48
27
Simun Butic
Simun Butic Right Wing
6.41
28
Lovro Banovec
Lovro Banovec Left Wing
6.77
35
Jakov Gurlica
Jakov Gurlica Defensive Midfield
6.9
77
Eniss Shabani
Eniss Shabani Defensive Midfield
6.79

Starting XI ▼

31
Marko Malenica
Marko Malenica Goalkeeper
6.93
98
Miloš Jovičić
Miloš Jovičić Midfielder
6.43
39
Domagoj Bukvic
Domagoj Bukvic Midfielder
6.66
17
Arnel Jakupovic
Arnel Jakupovic Centre Forward
6.87
21
Vladan Bubanja
Vladan Bubanja Attacker
6.81
57
Samuel Akere
Samuel Akere Attacker
6.84
6
David Mejía
David Mejía Central Midfield
6.97
16
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Oleksandr Petrusenko Central Midfield
6.7
26
Luka Jelenic
Luka Jelenic Centre Back
6.81
38
David Colina
David Colina Left Back
6.71
49
Ivano Kolarik
Ivano Kolarik Right Back
6.65

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Osijek holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Osijek a 6.8-point edge. External projection is Vukovar 31.5%, draw 28.3%, and Osijek 40.3%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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