FC Groningen vs Excelsior Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Euroborg Sat, 2 May - 4:45 PM
Eredivisie
FC Groningen GRO
2 Winner 3
Excelsior EXC
Full Time Sat, 2 May 4:45 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Younes Taha - 47'
Tika de Jonge - 3'
Goal
|
Goal
Gyan de Regt - 90'
Derensili Sanches Fernandes - 65'
Casper Widell - 40'

CONTEXT

FC Groningen faced Excelsior at home in a closely contested match that concluded 2-3 in favor of the away side. As the stronger team with 56% possession, Groningen entered with higher structural expectations but faltered, particularly after a level 1-1 halftime score. Excelsior mounted a decisive second-half response, scoring twice to Groningen's one, resulting in a significant 78.7% structural deviation favoring the visitors. No red cards disrupted play, maintaining a full complement of players throughout. Efficiency metrics aligned with pre-match assessments, though detailed xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Possession dominance did not translate to goals for the home team, exposing vulnerabilities in conversion. This outcome flipped pre-match projections where Groningen held a 55.1% implied probability of victory against Excelsior's 21.3%. The even halftime footing gave way to Excelsior's clinical finishing.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Excelsior's 2-3 win marked a significant 78.7% structural deviation from pre-match expectations favoring FC Groningen.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, so alignment with expected goals could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable due to absent performance data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events notably altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Oostrom

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. de Koning

2nd Assistant

R. van Marrewijk

1st Assistant

W. Wiersma

4th Official

FC Groningen D. Lukkien
D. Lukkien
VS
Excelsior R. den Uil
R. den Uil
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Feyenoord Rank: 74 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 66 D
Telstar Rank: 62 W
AZ Rank: 76 W
PEC Zwolle Rank: 63 D
Ajax Rank: 77 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Utrecht Rank: 72 W
PEC Zwolle Rank: 63 D
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 74 L
Heracles Almelo Rank: 56 D
Feyenoord Rank: 76 L
SC Heerenveen Rank: 70 L
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Groningen
55.09%
Draw
23.63%
Away Excelsior
21.28%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC Groningen
+54.77%
Draw
+16.25%
Excelsior
-71.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.61
52.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Groningen
Excelsior
Power Score
65.61
52.43
League Position
9
13
Global Rank
312
424

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Groningen — Opponent-weighted form score
Excelsior — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Groningen Excelsior

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Groningen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Excelsior

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Groningen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Excelsior
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.93
44.32
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
44.32
23.93
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Groningen -2.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Excelsior +2.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Groningen
Excelsior
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Groningen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Excelsior
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Groningen Excelsior
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Groningen Excelsior
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Groningen
Excelsior
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Groningen
vs
Excelsior
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Groningen Excelsior
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Groningen 0.43
Excelsior 0.60
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Groningen Excelsior
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Groningen 0.10
Excelsior 0.07
FC Groningen
Excelsior
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GRO had peak pressure around 5'.
  • EXC started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
GRO Pressure EXC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GRO reached the top pressure at 5' (78.53).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Groningen GRO Home
21 matches
Excelsior EXC Away
Match Record
13
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
13
Goals
37
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
37
+19
Goal Difference
-19

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
E. Vaessen
Netherlands
1 E. Vaessen
M. Rente
Substitution
Germany
5 M. Rente
T. Blokzijl
Netherlands
3 T. Blokzijl
D. Janse
Netherlands
4 D. Janse
M. Peersman
Belgium
43 M. Peersman
T. Land
Substitution
Netherlands
18 T. Land
T. de Jonge
Netherlands
8 T. de Jonge
Y. Taha El Idrissi
Substitution
Morocco
10 Y. Taha El Idrissi
D. van der Werff
Substitution
17 D. van der Werff
J. Schreuders
Netherlands
14 J. Schreuders
T. van Bergen
Netherlands
26 T. van Bergen
Pitch
S. van Gassel
Netherlands
1 S. van Gassel
A. Zagre
France
12 A. Zagre
L. Schouten
Netherlands
14 L. Schouten
C. Widell
Sweden
4 C. Widell
R. Meissen
Netherlands
3 R. Meissen
I. Yegoian
Georgia
23 I. Yegoian
L. Hartjes
Substitution
Netherlands
20 L. Hartjes
N. Naujoks
Substitution
Netherlands
10 N. Naujoks
E. Hansson
Substitution
Sweden
7 E. Hansson
G. de Regt
Netherlands
11 G. de Regt
D. Sanches Fernandes
Substitution
Netherlands
30 D. Sanches Fernandes

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Euroborg
Capacity :
22525
Attendance :
22525
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Luc de Koning
Ingmar Oostrom
Roan van Marrewijk
Wouter Wiersma

Statistics

Possession
GRO
54%
EXC
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
5 Big Chances Created 6
3 Shots 5
28 Dangerous attacks 30
56 Possession 44
5 Corners 8
10 Free kicks 5

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0
101 Ball Safe 86
0 Injuries 2
10 Goal Attempts 16
4 Substitutions 5
6 Dribble Attempts 17
83 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
5 Successful Dribbles 6
2 Assists 3
4 Goal Kicks 7
26 Throwins 16
14 Successful Headers 15

Attacking

112 Attacks 95
3 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
80 Successful Passes Percentage 73
10 Key Passes 10
62 Long Passes 75
364 Successful Passes 269
31 Successful Long Passes 27
457 Passes 367

Defensive

5 Saves 3
15 Tackles 9
44 Duels Won 37
8 Interceptions 9

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 13
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
5 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Ingmar Oostrom

Starting XI ▼

1
Etienne Vaessen
Etienne Vaessen Goalkeeper
6.85
3
Thijmen Blokzijl
Thijmen Blokzijl Defender
6.87
4
Dies Janse
Dies Janse Defender
7.05
5
Marco Rente
Marco Rente Defender
6.98
16
Tyrique Mercera
Tyrique Mercera
Defender87'
6.55
43
Marvin Peersman
Marvin Peersman Defender
6.77
8
Tika de Jonge
Tika de Jonge Midfielder
6.72
10
Younes Taha
Younes Taha Midfielder
7.05
20
Mats Seuntjens
Mats Seuntjens
Midfielder87'
6.56
14
Jorg Schreuders
Jorg Schreuders Midfielder
6.86
17
David van der Werff
David van der Werff Midfielder
6.88
34
Ryan Metu
Ryan Metu
Attacker56'
6.5
18
Tygo Land
Tygo Land Midfielder
6.47
9
Brynjólfur Willumsson
Brynjólfur Willumsson
Attacker71'
6.75
26
Thom van Bergen
Thom van Bergen Attacker
6.97
Referee : Ingmar Oostrom

Starting XI ▼

1
Stijn van Gassel
Stijn van Gassel Goalkeeper
7.17
3
Rick Meissen
Rick Meissen Defender
6.76
4
Casper Widell
Casper Widell Defender
6.88
12
Arthur Zagré
Arthur Zagré Defender
6.79
14
Lewis Schouten
Lewis Schouten Defender
6.67
10
Noah Naujoks
Noah Naujoks Midfielder
6.89
33
Jerolldino Bergraaf
Jerolldino Bergraaf
Attacker77'
6.55
20
Lennard Hartjes
Lennard Hartjes Midfielder
6.76
6
Adam Carlén
Adam Carlén
Midfielder77'
6.66
23
Irakli Yegoian
Irakli Yegoian Midfielder
7.02
7
Emil Hansson
Emil Hansson Attacker
6.7
9
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Attacker60'
6.64
11
Gyan de Regt
Gyan de Regt Attacker
6.8
30
Derensili Sanches Fernandes
Derensili Sanches Fernandes Attacker
6.84
2
Ilias Bronkhorst
Ilias Bronkhorst
Defender85'
6.82

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Gyan de Regt
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
88'
Event
Mike van Duinen → Jerolldino Bergraaf
9th Substitution
Event
Tyrique Mercera → Marco Rente
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Mats Seuntjens → Younes Taha
8th Substitution
87'
85'
Event
Ilias Bronkhorst → Derensili Sanches Fernandes
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Adam Carlén → Lennard Hartjes
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Jerolldino Bergraaf → Noah Naujoks
4th Substitution
Event
Brynjólfur Willumsson → Tygo Land
3rd Substitution
71'
65'
Event
Derensili Sanches Fernandes
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
60'
Event
Szymon Wlodarczyk → Emil Hansson
2nd Substitution
Event
Ryan Metu → David van der Werff
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Younes Taha
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Casper Widell
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Tika de Jonge
Header / 1st Goal
3'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Thom van Bergen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Gyan de Regt scores with a left-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Irakli Yegoian takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Brynjolfur Darri Willumsson's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Szymon Wlodarczyk takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tika de Jonge's right-footed shot is blocked.
87
Update Update
Tyrique Mercera comes on for Marco Rente.
87
Update Update
Mats Seuntjens comes on for Younes Taha.
86
Attempt Attempt
Szymon Wlodarczyk's right-footed shot is blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Derensili Sanches Fernandes takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
77
Update Update
Jerroldino Armantrading is on, and Noah Naujoks is off.
77
Update Update
Jerroldino Armantrading is on, and Noah Naujoks is off.
71
Update Update
Brynjolfur Darri Willumsson is on, and Tygo Land is off.
70
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Metu takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
65
Attempt Attempt
Derensili Sanches Fernandes takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
64
Attempt Attempt
Casper Widell takes a header shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Noah Naujoks takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
61
Update Update
Szymon Wlodarczyk comes on for Emil Hansson.
61
Update Update
Noah Naujoks' header is blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Arthur Zagre takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Thijmen Blokzijl takes a right-footed shot but misses.
56
Update Update
Elvis van der Laan comes on for David van der Werff.
47
Update Update
Goal! Younes Taha scores, making it 2-1.
47
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha scores with a left-footed shot.
44
Attempt Attempt
Noah Naujoks takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Casper Widell takes a shot with his head and scores.
36
Attempt Attempt
Thom van Bergen takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Derensili Sanches Fernandes takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
26
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha's left-footed shot is blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Casper Widell's header is saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Derensili Sanches Fernandes takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Derensili Sanches Fernandes takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
6
Update Update
Rick Meissen takes a header, but it goes wide.
5
Attempt Attempt
Emil Hansson's left-footed shot is saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Noah Naujoks takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
3
Update Update
Marco Rente's header is blocked.
3
Update Update
Goal! Tika de Jonge scores to make it 1-0.
3
Attempt Attempt
Tika de Jonge takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.

CONCLUSION

Excelsior's triumph over FC Groningen, 3-2 away, defied the home side's status as the stronger team and possession leaders at 56%. The significant structural deviation of 78.7% underscores how second-half execution trumped overall control, with no red cards influencing proceedings. Halftime parity at 1-1 evaporated as visitors converted opportunities more effectively. Absent xG data limits granular insights, yet market misalignment highlights the upset's scale against Groningen's 55.1% pre-match edge. Efficiency holding steady suggests tactical discipline from Excelsior propelled the result, offering lessons in resilience for underdogs.

FC Groningen vs Excelsior preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Eredivisie, Netherlands View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ