NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Goffertstadion Sat, 2 May - 7:00 PM
Eredivisie
NEC Nijmegen NEC
1 – 1
Telstar TEL
Full Time Sat, 2 May 7:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Tjaronn Chery - 85'
Goal
|
Goal
Sem van Duijn - 32'

CONTEXT

NEC Nijmegen played out a frustrating 1-1 draw against Telstar at home in the Eerste Divisie. As the stronger team, NEC dominated possession with 70% compared to Telstar's 30%, yet trailed 0-1 at halftime after the visitors capitalized on their limited chances. The home side pushed hard in the second half, equalizing through persistent pressure, but failed to find a winner despite their superiority. This result represents a significant structural deviation, with NEC underperforming relative to expectations. No red cards disrupted play, and there were no notable second-half adjustments. The stalemate highlights NEC's challenges in converting dominance into goals, while Telstar's defensive resilience secured a valuable point. Both teams shared the spoils in a match full of what-ifs.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant 79.3% structural deviation occurred as stronger NEC Nijmegen drew 1-1 with Telstar.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as the draw defied pre-match expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without available data.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments influenced the 1-1 outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards resulted in no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Manschot

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

K. Bodde

1st Assistant

N. van Kampen

2nd Assistant

R. Sturm

4th Official

NEC Nijmegen D. Schreuder
D. Schreuder
VS
Telstar A. Correia
A. Correia
1.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Twente Rank: 75 D
Feyenoord Rank: 74 D
Excelsior Rank: 62 W
SC Heerenveen Rank: 70 D
PSV Rank: 86 W
FC Volendam Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 67 W
FC Utrecht Rank: 72 L
FC Groningen Rank: 66 L
PSV Rank: 86 W
SC Heerenveen Rank: 70 L
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 61 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home NEC Nijmegen
61.37%
Draw
20.66%
Away Telstar
17.97%

Movement

Changes since opening
NEC Nijmegen
+25.2%
Draw
-7%
Telstar
-18.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.05
52.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
NEC Nijmegen
Telstar
Power Score
74.05
52.79
League Position
3
15
Global Rank
127
409

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
NEC Nijmegen — Opponent-weighted form score
Telstar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) NEC Nijmegen Telstar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

NEC Nijmegen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Telstar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

NEC Nijmegen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Telstar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.93
36.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.67
35.93
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
NEC Nijmegen -0.08 Efficiency Index
vs
Telstar +0.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
NEC Nijmegen
Telstar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

NEC Nijmegen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Telstar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
NEC Nijmegen Telstar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
NEC Nijmegen Telstar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
NEC Nijmegen
Telstar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
NEC Nijmegen
vs
Telstar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
NEC Nijmegen Telstar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
NEC Nijmegen 0.25
Telstar 0.50
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
NEC Nijmegen Telstar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
NEC Nijmegen 0.05
Telstar 0.01
NEC Nijmegen
Telstar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NEC had peak pressure around 112'.
  • NEC started the game with stronger pressure.
NEC Pressure TEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NEC reached the top pressure at 112' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

NEC Nijmegen NEC Home
1 matches
Telstar TEL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
G. Crettaz
Argentina
1 G. Crettaz
E. Dasa
Substitution
Israel
14 E. Dasa
B. Nuytinck
Substitution
Netherlands
17 B. Nuytinck
D. Fonville
Netherlands
24 D. Fonville
S. Ouaissa
Netherlands
25 S. Ouaissa
D. Nejašmić
Croatia
6 D. Nejašmić
P. Sandler
Netherlands
3 P. Sandler
N. Lebreton
Substitution
France
20 N. Lebreton
K. Sano
Japan
23 K. Sano
T. Chery
Suriname
10 T. Chery
B. Linssen
Substitution
Netherlands
30 B. Linssen
Pitch
R. Koeman Jr.
Netherlands
1 R. Koeman Jr.
D. Bakker
Netherlands
6 D. Bakker
D. Koswal
Netherlands
21 D. Koswal
N. Ogidi Nwankwo
Netherlands
14 N. Ogidi Nwankwo
J. Hardeveld
Netherlands
2 J. Hardeveld
C. Hatenboer
23 C. Hatenboer
G. Offerhaus
Netherlands
4 G. Offerhaus
T. Noslin
Substitution
Netherlands
11 T. Noslin
P. Brouwer
Netherlands
27 P. Brouwer
T. Owusu
Substitution
Netherlands
8 T. Owusu
S. van Duijn
Substitution
Netherlands
37 S. van Duijn

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Goffertstadion
Capacity :
12500
Attendance :
12650
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Kevin Bodde
Jeroen Manschot
Nils van Kampen
Rick Sturm

Statistics

Possession
NEC
65%
TEL
35%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
21 Shots 10
83 Dangerous attacks 20
70 Possession 30
9 Corners 0
11 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
17 Throwins 16
9 Goal Kicks 20
17 Successful Headers 13
10 Successful Dribbles 4
18 Dribble Attempts 11
1 Assists 1
2 Hit Woodwork 0
18 Goal Attempts 6
89 Ball Safe 88
2 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 3

Attacking

144 Attacks 73
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

46 Long Passes 65
86 Successful Passes Percentage 65
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
458 Successful Passes 157
535 Passes 243
21 Successful Long Passes 25
16 Key Passes 6

Defensive

49 Duels Won 42
11 Tackles 15
7 Interceptions 10
3 Saves 5

Build-up

37 Total Crosses 8
12 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Jeroen Manschot

Starting XI ▼

1
Gonzalo Crettaz
Gonzalo Crettaz Goalkeeper
6.83
14
Eli Dasa
Eli Dasa Defender
6.69
9
Danilo
Danilo
Attacker66'
6.6
17
Bram Nuytinck
Bram Nuytinck Defender
6.34
18
Koki Ogawa
Koki Ogawa
Attacker67'
6.93
24
Deveron Fonville
Deveron Fonville Defender
6.77
3
Philippe Sandler
Philippe Sandler Midfielder
6.62
6
Darko Nejasmic
Darko Nejasmic Midfielder
7.06
20
Noé Lebreton
Noé Lebreton Midfielder
7.05
34
Youssef El Kachati
Youssef El Kachati
Attacker67'
6.72
25
Sami Ouaissa
Sami Ouaissa Midfielder
7.03
10
Tjaronn Chery
Tjaronn Chery Attacker
7.25
23
Kodai Sano
Kodai Sano Attacker
7.06
30
Bryan Linssen
Bryan Linssen Attacker
7.07
2
Brayann Pereira
Brayann Pereira
Defender67'
6.7
Referee : Jeroen Manschot

Starting XI ▼

1
Ronald Koeman Jr.
Ronald Koeman Jr. Goalkeeper
7.24
6
Danny Bakker
Danny Bakker Defender
6.94
14
Neville Ogidi Nwankwo
Neville Ogidi Nwankwo Defender
6.56
21
Devon Koswal
Devon Koswal Defender
6.58
2
Jeff Hardeveld
Jeff Hardeveld Midfielder
7.15
4
Guus Offerhaus
Guus Offerhaus Midfielder
6.76
11
Tyrese Noslin
Tyrese Noslin Midfielder
6.73
9
Jelani Seedorf
Jelani Seedorf
Attacker74'
6.66
23
Cedric Hatenboer
Cedric Hatenboer Midfielder
6.91
8
Tyrone Owusu
Tyrone Owusu Attacker
6.76
7
Soufiane Hetli
Soufiane Hetli
Attacker52'
6.63
27
Patrick Brouwer
Patrick Brouwer Attacker
6.98
37
Sem van Duijn
Sem van Duijn Attacker
7.08
30
Kay Tejan
Kay Tejan
Attacker74'
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Deveron Fonville
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Youssef El Kachati
Goal disallowed
89'
Event
Tjaronn Chery
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
85'
82'
Event
Ronald Koeman Jr.
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Kay Tejan → Sem van Duijn
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Jelani Seedorf → Tyrese Noslin
6th Substitution
Event
Koki Ogawa → Bram Nuytinck
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Youssef El Kachati → Noé Lebreton
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Brayann Pereira → Bryan Linssen
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Danilo → Eli Dasa
2nd Substitution
66'
52'
Event
Soufiane Hetli → Tyrone Owusu
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
Guus Offerhaus
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Sem van Duijn
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Noé Lebreton
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
30'
Event
Philippe Sandler
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Deveron Fonville receives a yellow card.
88
Update Update
Goal! Youssef El Kachati scores, making it 2-1.
88
Update Update
Koki Ogawa's header hits the post.
88
Attempt Attempt
Youssef El Kachati scores with a right-footed shot.
88
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Youssef El Kachati.
87
Attempt Attempt
Jelani Seedorf's header is saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Soufiane Hetli takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Koki Ogawa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery scores with a left-footed shot.
84
Attempt Attempt
Soufiane Hetli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Ronald Koeman.
80
Update Update
Koki Ogawa's header attempt misses the target.
77
Attempt Attempt
Koki Ogawa's right-footed shot is blocked.
77
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa's right-footed shot is blocked.
76
Attempt Attempt
Soufiane Hetli takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Update Update
Kay Tejan replaces Sem van Duijn.
74
Update Update
Koki Ogawa's header attempt misses the target.
74
Update Update
Jelani Seedorf comes on for Tyrese Noslin.
72
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
67
Update Update
Koki Ogawa comes on for Bram Nuytinck.
67
Update Update
Youssef El Kachati is on, and Noe Lebreton is off.
67
Update Update
Brayann Pereira replaces Bryan Linssen.
67
Substitution Substitution
Danilo Pereira da Silva is substituted off for Eli Dasa.
64
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Attempt Attempt
Philippe Sandler takes a right-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Noe Lebreton's right-footed shot is blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Brouwer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Update Update
Soufiane Hetli replaces Tyrone Owusu.
45
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Tyrone Owusu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Guus Offerhaus receives a yellow card.
32
Update Update
Goal! Sem van Duijn scores, making it 0-1.
32
Attempt Attempt
Cedric Hatenboer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Sem van Duijn takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
31
Attempt Attempt
Danny Bakker attempts a header but misses the shot.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Noe Lebreton receives a yellow card.
28
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Linssen takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
24
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa's left-footed shot is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Noe Lebreton's right-footed shot is saved.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Philippe Sandler receives a yellow card.
11
Attempt Attempt
Cedric Hatenboer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Kodai Sano takes a right-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Eli Dasa's right-footed shot is saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jeroen Manschot.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between NEC Nijmegen and Telstar encapsulates football's unpredictability. NEC, with 70% possession and stronger billing, equalized after a 0-1 halftime deficit but couldn't capitalize further, marking a significant deviation from norms. Telstar's compact defense and clinical first-half finish earned a hard-fought point away. This result questions NEC's finishing prowess despite control, potentially denting their promotion push. Telstar gains morale from defying expectations. Without red cards or disruptions, the game underscores efficiency's role over mere dominance. Both sides depart with mixed feelings, NEC pondering missed chances and Telstar celebrating resilience.

NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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