Nice vs Lens Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Allianz Riviera Sat, 2 May - 7:05 PM
Ligue 1
Nice NCE
1 – 1
Lens LEN
Full Time Sat, 2 May 7:05 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Ali Abdi - 84'
Goal
|
Goal
Allan Saint-Maximin - 60'
|
Red Card Saud Abdulhamid 81'

CONTEXT

Nice and Lens played out a 1-1 draw in Ligue 1, with no goals in the first half as both teams were level at 0-0 at halftime. Lens controlled 54% of possession against Nice's 46%, establishing themselves as the stronger team on the balance of play. The second half saw Lens reduced to ten men after receiving a red card, which introduced significant distortion and forced tactical adjustments. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Lens managed to score once, matching Nice's goal for a shared result. This outcome reflected a moderate 8.8% structural deviation favoring Lens, while efficiency stayed in line with expectations. Market alignment held true, though xG metrics were unavailable for deeper analysis. The red card event notably impacted proceedings, preventing a potential Lens victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited moderate 8.8% structural deviation towards Lens.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as true.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: Red card to Lens altered second-half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Lens red card caused second-half distortion listed in adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Léonard

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

H. Ocak

1st Assistant

C. Mouysset

2nd Assistant

R. Landry

4th Official

Nice C. Puel
C. Puel
VS
Lens P. Sage
P. Sage
0.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.2
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Olympique Marseille Rank: 80 D
LOSC Lille Rank: 80 D
Le Havre Rank: 66 D
Strasbourg Rank: 79 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 L
Angers SCO Rank: 68 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brest Rank: 73 D
Toulouse Rank: 72 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
Angers SCO Rank: 68 W
Lorient Rank: 75 L
Metz Rank: 62 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 8 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nice
5.53%
Draw
91.23%
Away Lens
3.24%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nice
-2.29%
Draw
+3.52%
Lens
-1.23%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.43
82.13
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nice
Lens
Power Score
72.43
82.13
League Position
15
2
Global Rank
149
49

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nice — Opponent-weighted form score
Lens — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nice Lens

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lens

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lens
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.48
33.52
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.52
23.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nice -0.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Lens +0.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nice
Lens
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lens
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nice Lens
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nice Lens
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nice
Lens
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nice
vs
Lens
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nice Lens
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nice 0.25
Lens 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nice Lens
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nice 0.02
Lens 0.03
Nice
Lens
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEN had peak pressure around 7'.
  • LEN started the game with stronger pressure.
NCE Pressure LEN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LEN reached the top pressure at 7' (65.02).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nice NCE Home
23 matches
Lens LEN Away
Match Record
9
Wins
6
8
Draws
8
6
Losses
9
Goals
19
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
19
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
Y. Diouf
France
80 Y. Diouf
T. Louchet
France
20 T. Louchet
A. Mendy
France
33 A. Mendy
A. Juma Bah
Sierra Leone
28 A. Juma Bah
K. Peprah Oppong
Ghana
37 K. Peprah Oppong
M. Bard
France
26 M. Bard
K. Boudache
Substitution
France
32 K. Boudache
H. Boudaoui
Substitution
Algeria
6 H. Boudaoui
M. Sanson
Substitution
France
8 M. Sanson
S. Diop
Substitution
Morocco
10 S. Diop
M. Cho
Substitution
France
25 M. Cho
Pitch
R. Risser
France
40 R. Risser
M. Sarr
France
20 M. Sarr
S. Baidoo
Austria
6 S. Baidoo
P. Ganiou
France
25 P. Ganiou
M. Udol
France
14 M. Udol
A. Thomasson
France
28 A. Thomasson
M. Sangare
Mali
8 M. Sangare
S. Abdul Hamid
Saudi Arabia
23 S. Abdul Hamid
A. Saint-Maximin
France
9 A. Saint-Maximin
F. Thauvin
Substitution
France
10 F. Thauvin
O. Édouard
Substitution
France
11 O. Édouard

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 07:05 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Allianz Riviera
Capacity :
36178
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Thomas Léonard
Huseyin Ocak
Christophe Mouysset
Remi Landry

Statistics

Possession
NCE
46%
LEN
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 6
36 Dangerous attacks 42
46 Possession 54
7 Corners 8
10 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

19 Throwins 19
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 37
26 Dribble Attempts 19
9 Successful Headers 15
9 Successful Dribbles 7
7 Goal Kicks 5
1 Injuries 0
4 Goal Attempts 10
101 Ball Safe 86
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 2
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

88 Attacks 105
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

326 Successful Passes 398
84 Successful Passes Percentage 86
17 Successful Long Passes 20
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
40 Long Passes 38
387 Passes 465
5 Key Passes 15

Defensive

18 Tackles 30
46 Duels Won 63
13 Interceptions 13
3 Saves 1

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 15
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Léonard

Starting XI ▼

80
Yehvann Diouf
Yehvann Diouf Goalkeeper
7.01
20
Tom Louchet
Tom Louchet Defender
6.8
26
Melvin Bard
Melvin Bard Defender
6.78
28
Juma Bah
Juma Bah Defender
6.78
33
Antoine Mendy
Antoine Mendy Defender
6.68
37
Kojo Peprah Oppong
Kojo Peprah Oppong Defender
6.79
6
Hicham Boudaoui
Hicham Boudaoui Midfielder
6.74
24
Charles Vanhoutte
Charles Vanhoutte
Midfielder90+1'
6.75
8
Morgan Sanson
Morgan Sanson Midfielder
6.59
99
Salis Abdul Samed
Salis Abdul Samed
Midfielder71'
6.45
10
Sofiane Diop
Sofiane Diop Midfielder
6.95
90
Kevin Carlos
Kevin Carlos
Attacker90+1'
6.45
32
Kaïl Boudache
Kaïl Boudache Midfielder
6.6
2
Ali Abdi
Ali Abdi
Defender71'
6.56
25
Mohamed-Ali Cho
Mohamed-Ali Cho Attacker
6.82
21
Isak Jansson
Isak Jansson
Attacker71'
6.63
Referee : Thomas Léonard

Starting XI ▼

40
Robin Risser
Robin Risser Goalkeeper
6.87
6
Samson Baidoo
Samson Baidoo Defender
7.07
20
Malang Sarr
Malang Sarr Defender
7.14
25
Ismaëlo Ganiou
Ismaëlo Ganiou Defender
6.9
8
Mamadou Sangaré
Mamadou Sangaré Midfielder
7.25
14
Matthieu Udol
Matthieu Udol Midfielder
7.09
23
Saud Abdulhamid
Saud Abdulhamid Midfielder
6.82
28
Adrien Thomasson
Adrien Thomasson Midfielder
7.23
9
Allan Saint-Maximin
Allan Saint-Maximin Attacker
7.14
10
Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin Attacker
7.32
2
Ruben Aguilar
Ruben Aguilar
Defender86'
6.98
11
Odsonne Édouard
Odsonne Édouard Attacker
6.88
19
Abdallah Sima
Abdallah Sima
Attacker77'
6.76

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kevin Carlos → Sofiane Diop
6th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Charles Vanhoutte → Hicham Boudaoui
7th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Melvin Bard 
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90'
86'
Event
Ruben Aguilar → Florian Thauvin
5th Substitution
Event
Ali Abdi
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
84'
82'
Event
Adrien Thomasson 
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Saud Abdulhamid
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
77'
Event
Abdallah Sima → Odsonne Édouard
4th Substitution
Event
Isak Jansson → Mohamed-Ali Cho
2nd Substitution
71'
Event
Salis Abdul Samed → Morgan Sanson
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Ali Abdi → Kaïl Boudache
1st Substitution
71'
60'
Event
Allan Saint-Maximin
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Juma Bah
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
45'
44'
Event
Florian Thauvin
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
27'
Event
Malang Sarr
Argument / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Melvin Bard receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi Benjamin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Substitution Substitution
Charles Vanhoutte is substituted for Hichem Boudaoui.
90
Update Update
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi Benjamin comes on for Sofiane Diop.
86
Update Update
Ruben Aguilar replaces Florian Thauvin.
84
Update Update
Goal! Ali Abdi scores, making it 1-1.
84
Attempt Attempt
Ali Abdi takes a left-footed shot and scores.
84
Attempt Attempt
Ali Abdi scores with a left-footed shot.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adrien Thomasson receives a yellow card.
81
Red Card Red Card Important
Saud Abdulhamid receives a red card.
77
Update Update
Abdallah Sima is on, and Odsonne Edouard is off.
75
Attempt Attempt
Ali Abdi takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
74
Update Update
Allan Saint-Maximin attempts a header but misses the target.
71
Update Update
Isak Jansson replaces Mohamed Ali-Cho.
71
Substitution Substitution
Ali Abdi is substituted for Kail Boudache.
71
Update Update
Isak Jansson comes on for Mohamed Ali-Cho.
71
Attempt Attempt
Florian Thauvin takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
70
Attempt Attempt
Malang Sarr takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Allan Saint-Maximin scores with a left-footed shot.
54
Attempt Attempt
Allan Saint-Maximin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Allan Saint-Maximin takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Allan Saint-Maximin takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Ali-Cho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Abdulay Juma Bah receives a yellow card.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Florian Thauvin receives a yellow card.
40
Attempt Attempt
Odsonne Edouard takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Ganiou's header is saved.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Malang Sarr receives a yellow card.
22
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Sangare takes a left-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Diop takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Kail Boudache takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Abdulay Juma Bah takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Ganiou takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
Allan Saint-Maximin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Mohamed Ali-Cho with his right foot is blocked.
6
Update Update
Samson Baidoo's header is blocked.
6
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Sangare's right-footed shot is blocked.
4
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Sangare takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Odsonne Edouard takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between Nice and Lens underscored the impact of the red card on Lens, who were otherwise dominant with higher possession. Goalless at halftime, the game opened up post-interval, but the sending-off neutralized Lens's superiority, enabling Nice to secure a point. Moderate structural deviation of 8.8% towards Lens highlights underlying control not fully converted. Efficiency in line and market alignment suggest a predictable equilibrium despite the event. Without xG, full performance nuance is limited, yet the result aligns with adjusted expectations from the red card distortion, marking a resilient outcome for Nice.

Nice vs Lens preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.