Porto vs Alverca Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Do Dragão Sat, 2 May - 7:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Porto FCP
1 Winner 0
Alverca ALV
Full Time Sat, 2 May 7:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Jan Bednarek - 40'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Porto clinched a narrow 1-0 win against Alverca, replicating the halftime scoreline of 1-0. Holding 56% possession to Alverca's 44%, Porto dictated the tempo but faced a resilient defense that restricted clear openings, with xG data unavailable for deeper chance quality analysis. As the stronger team, Porto delivered the expected outcome with minimal structural deviation of 3.9%. The result aligned with pre-match market assessments, and efficiency remained in line throughout. No red cards disrupted play, and the second half saw no notable adjustments from either side. Porto's first-half goal proved decisive, allowing them to manage the game conservatively post-interval while Alverca pushed forward without reward. This performance highlights Porto's control in a low-scoring encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Porto exhibited minimal structural deviation of 3.9% from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome fully aligned with pre-match market view.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards caused no distortion to proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Oliveira Silva

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Campos

1st Assistant

N. Cunha

2nd Assistant

M. Monteiro Fonseca

4th Official

Porto F. Farioli
F. Farioli
VS
Alverca C. Dias de Castro
C. Dias de Castro
2.59
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estrela Amadora Rank: 58 W
Tondela Rank: 60 W
Estoril Rank: 68 W
Famalicão Rank: 74 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 82 W
Moreirense Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arouca Rank: 65 W
Nacional Rank: 63 L
Casa Pia Rank: 63 W
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Porto
96.07%
Draw
3.73%
Away Alverca
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Porto
+2.72%
Draw
-2.68%
Alverca
-0.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
86.87
57.36
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Porto
Alverca
Power Score
86.87
57.36
League Position
1
9
Global Rank
25
284

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Porto — Opponent-weighted form score
Alverca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Porto Alverca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Porto

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Alverca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Porto ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Alverca
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.64
25.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.91
24.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Porto -0.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Alverca +0.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Porto
Alverca
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Porto ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Alverca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Porto Alverca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Porto Alverca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Porto
Alverca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Porto
vs
Alverca
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Porto Alverca
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Porto 0.33
Alverca 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Porto Alverca
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Porto 0.00
Alverca 0.03
Porto
Alverca
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ALV had peak pressure around 89'.
  • FCP started the game with stronger pressure.
FCP Pressure ALV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ALV reached the top pressure at 89' (98.19).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Porto FCP Home
1 matches
Alverca ALV Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
3
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
D. Meireles Costa
Portugal
99 D. Meireles Costa
A. Costa
Portugal
20 A. Costa
J. Bednarek
Poland
5 J. Bednarek
J. Kiwior
Substitution
Poland
4 J. Kiwior
Z. Sanusi
Substitution
Nigeria
12 Z. Sanusi
V. Froholdt
Denmark
8 V. Froholdt
P. Rosario
Netherlands
13 P. Rosario
G. Veiga Novas
Substitution
Spain
10 G. Veiga Novas
E. Aquino Cossa
Substitution
Brazil
11 E. Aquino Cossa
D. Gül
Sweden
27 D. Gül
O. Pietuszewski
Substitution
Poland
77 O. Pietuszewski
Pitch
Matheus Mendes
Brazil
31 Matheus Mendes
N. Meupiyou Menadjou
France
33 N. Meupiyou Menadjou
S. Gómez Solà
Spain
5 S. Gómez Solà
K. Marques Naves
Substitution
Brazil
4 K. Marques Naves
I. James
Nigeria
12 I. James
L. Oliveira dos Santos
Brazil
18 L. Oliveira dos Santos
R. Simião Gomes
Substitution
Brazil
26 R. Simião Gomes
N. Zoubdi Touaizi
Morocco
2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
L. Figueiredo dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
20 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
S. Cesar
Substitution
Brazil
91 S. Cesar
Chiquinho
Substitution
Portugal
10 Chiquinho

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Do Dragão
Capacity :
50033
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
David Rafael Oliveira Silva
Carlos Campos
Nélson Cunha
Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca

Statistics

Possession
FCP
56%
ALV
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
0 Big Chances Created 1
12 Shots 10
36 Dangerous attacks 28
56 Possession 44
5 Corners 4
19 Free kicks 21
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

16 Throwins 20
14 Successful Headers 6
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
6 Goal Kicks 5
12 Dribble Attempts 6
2 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 0
6 Successful Dribbles 3
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1
6 Goal Attempts 8
69 Ball Safe 69

Attacking

121 Attacks 66
0 Counter Attacks 1
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

23 Successful Long Passes 20
87 Successful Passes Percentage 80
437 Passes 339
382 Successful Passes 270
40 Long Passes 45
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
9 Key Passes 7

Defensive

16 Tackles 20
54 Duels Won 49
8 Interceptions 2
4 Saves 2

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 15
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

21 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : David Rafael Oliveira Silva

Starting XI ▼

99
Diogo Costa
Diogo Costa Goalkeeper
6.93
4
Jakub Kiwior
Jakub Kiwior Defender
7.19
22
Alan Varela
Alan Varela
Midfielder46'
6.97
5
Jan Bednarek
Jan Bednarek Defender
7.18
12
Zaidu Sanusi
Zaidu Sanusi Defender
6.89
52
Martim Fernandes
Martim Fernandes
Defender46'
6.75
20
Alberto Costa
Alberto Costa Defender
6.99
8
Victor Froholdt
Victor Froholdt Midfielder
7.02
10
Gabri Veiga
Gabri Veiga Midfielder
7.02
42
Seko Fofana
Seko Fofana
Midfielder74'
6.88
13
Pablo Rosario
Pablo Rosario Midfielder
6.9
11
Pepê
Pepê Attacker
6.96
86
Rodrigo Mora
Rodrigo Mora
Midfielder86'
6.83
27
Deniz Gül
Deniz Gül Attacker
6.66
77
Oskar Pietuszewski
Oskar Pietuszewski Attacker
6.98
17
Borja Sainz
Borja Sainz
Attacker63'
6.86
Referee : David Rafael Oliveira Silva

Starting XI ▼

31
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira Goalkeeper
7.07
4
Kaiky Marques Naves
Kaiky Marques Naves Defender
6.95
82
Diogo Spencer
Diogo Spencer
Defender90'
6.63
5
Sergi Gómez Solà
Sergi Gómez Solà Defender
6.53
33
Bastien Meupiyou
Bastien Meupiyou Defender
6.57
2
Nabil Touaizi
Nabil Touaizi Midfielder
6.74
12
Isaac James
Isaac James Midfielder
6.73
18
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos Midfielder
7.05
26
Rhaldney
Rhaldney Midfielder
6.71
35
Zakaria Kessary
Zakaria Kessary
Midfielder89'
10
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira Attacker
6.99
9
Marko Milovanović
Marko Milovanović
Attacker77'
6.72
20
Figueiredo
Figueiredo Attacker
6.98
6
Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui
Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui
Midfielder77'
6.65
91
Sandro Lima
Sandro Lima Attacker
6.73
11
Cédric Jean-Luc Nuozzi
Cédric Jean-Luc Nuozzi
Attacker90'
6.54

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Diogo Spencer → Kaiky Marques Naves
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Cédric Jean-Luc Nuozzi → Sandro Lima
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Zakaria Kessary → Rhaldney
8th Substitution
Event
Rodrigo Mora → Pepê
7th Substitution
86'
77'
Event
Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui → Figueiredo
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Marko Milovanović → Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Figueiredo
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Seko Fofana → Gabri Veiga
4th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Sandro Lima
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Borja Sainz → Oskar Pietuszewski
3rd Substitution
63'
52'
Event
Kaiky Marques Naves
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Martim Fernandes → Zaidu Sanusi
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Alan Varela → Jakub Kiwior
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jan Bednarek
Header / 1st Goal
40'
Event
Jakub Kiwior
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
38'
Event
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Var
25'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Diogo Spencer comes on for Kaiky Naves.
90
Attempt Attempt
Cedric Nuozzi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Update Update
Cedric Nuozzi replaces Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sergi Gomez Sola takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Bastien Meupiyou's right-footed shot is saved.
89
Update Update
Zakaria Kassary comes on for Rhaldney.
86
Update Update
Rodrigo Mora replaces Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa.
84
Attempt Attempt
Nabili Zoubdi Touaizi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
78
Update Update
Marko Milovanovic comes on for Francisco Chiquinho.
78
Update Update
Davy Gui is on, and Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos is off.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos receives a yellow card.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima receives a yellow card.
74
Update Update
Seko Fofana comes on for Gabriel Veiga.
73
Attempt Attempt
Borja Sainz Eguskiza's header is saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Update Update
Borja Sainz Eguskiza comes on for Oskar Pietuszewski.
61
Attempt Attempt
Denis Gul takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Denis Gul takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kaiky Naves receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Alan Varela comes on for Jakub Kiwior.
46
Attempt Attempt
Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Martim Fernandes comes on for Zaidu Sanusi.
45
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
40
Update Update
Jan Bednarek scores with a header.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jakub Kiwior receives a yellow card.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Francisco Chiquinho receives a yellow card.
36
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa with his right foot is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Nabili Zoubdi Touaizi attempts a header but misses the shot.
26
Attempt Attempt
Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima attempts a header but misses the shot.
24
Attempt Attempt
Victor Froholdt takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Veiga takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa with his right foot is blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Costa takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Zaidu Sanusi takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Rosario takes a header shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Chiquinho takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Costa takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Porto's 1-0 triumph over Alverca affirmed their superiority, leveraging 56% possession to secure an early lead that held firm. The minimal 3.9% deviation and market alignment reflect a predictable result for the stronger outfit. Without xG metrics or disruptive events like red cards, the match underscored defensive solidity on both ends, with Porto's efficiency matching expectations. Alverca's 44% possession yielded no goals, exposing their limitations against top-tier control. This outcome provides a stable foundation for Porto's campaign, emphasizing pragmatic play over flair in a contest defined by first-half execution.

Porto vs Alverca preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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