Palermo vs Catanzaro Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Renzo Barbera Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Palermo PAL
3 Winner 2
Catanzaro CAT
Full Time Fri, 1 May 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Joel Pohjanpalo - 86' (P)
Patrick Nuamah - 54' (Own Goal)
Dennis Johnsen - 15'
Goal
|
Goal
Filippo Pittarello - 32', 3'

CONTEXT

In a gripping Serie B clash at the Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo mounted a stunning comeback to edge Catanzaro 3-2. The stronger home side found themselves trailing 1-2 at halftime, with Catanzaro dominating possession at 59% to Palermo's 41%. However, Palermo's second-half resurgence saw them net two unanswered goals initially before conceding once, clinching a hard-fought victory. No red cards disrupted play, keeping the contest open and intense. This outcome reflects Palermo's pre-match superiority, featuring a moderate 10% structural deviation. Efficiency stayed in line with expectations, and the result aligned with market views, underscoring Palermo's clinical edge despite limited ball control.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Palermo's 3-2 win featured a moderate 10% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed with Palermo's victory as the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events impacted the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards caused no distortion in match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Allegretta

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Aloise

4th Official

A. Niedda

1st Assistant

D. Santarossa

2nd Assistant

Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
VS
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
2.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.81
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Reggiana Rank: 47 D
Cesena Rank: 52 W
Frosinone Rank: 66 D
Avellino Rank: 53 W
Calcio Padova Rank: 50 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spezia Rank: 51 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
Modena Rank: 57 D
Avellino Rank: 51 D
Monza Rank: 66 D
Cesena Rank: 53 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Palermo
89.99%
Draw
9.54%
Away Catanzaro
0.47%

Movement

Changes since opening
Palermo
-0.86%
Draw
+0.87%
Catanzaro
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.81
60.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Palermo
Catanzaro
Power Score
64.81
60.24
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
333
467

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Palermo Catanzaro

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Palermo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.63
28.81
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.81
34.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Palermo +0.55 Efficiency Index
vs
Catanzaro -0.55 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Catanzaro
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Palermo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Palermo Catanzaro
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Palermo Catanzaro
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Catanzaro
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Palermo
vs
Catanzaro
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Palermo Catanzaro
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Palermo 0.27
Catanzaro 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Palermo Catanzaro
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Palermo 0.05
Catanzaro 0.07
Palermo
Catanzaro
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CAT had peak pressure around 78'.
  • PAL started the game with stronger pressure.
PAL Pressure CAT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CAT reached the top pressure at 78' (84.74).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Palermo PAL Home
5 matches
Catanzaro CAT Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
6
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:01:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Joronen
Finland
66 J. Joronen
G. Magnani
Substitution
Italy
96 G. Magnani
M. Bani
Substitution
Italy
13 M. Bani
D. Veroli
Italy
72 D. Veroli
N. Pierozzi
Substitution
Italy
27 N. Pierozzi
S. Giovane
Substitution
Italy
17 S. Giovane
F. Ranocchia
Italy
10 F. Ranocchia
R. Muati Modesto
Angola
18 R. Muati Modesto
E. Gyasi
Substitution
Ghana
11 E. Gyasi
D. Johnsen
Norway
7 D. Johnsen
J. Pohjanpalo
Finland
20 J. Pohjanpalo
Pitch
M. Pigliacelli
Italy
22 M. Pigliacelli
F. Moreira Pacheco
Brazil
6 F. Moreira Pacheco
M. Antonini Lui
Substitution
Brazil
4 M. Antonini Lui
R. Frosinini
Substitution
Italy
62 R. Frosinini
F. Di Francesco
Substitution
Italy
94 F. Di Francesco
S. Pontisso
Italy
20 S. Pontisso
M. Pompetti
Italy
21 M. Pompetti
C. Favasuli
Italy
27 C. Favasuli
P. Amoako Nuamah
Substitution
Italy
19 P. Amoako Nuamah
R. Oudin
Substitution
France
28 R. Oudin
F. Pittarello
Italy
8 F. Pittarello

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Capacity :
36365
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Francesco Aloise
Andrea Niedda
Davide Santarossa
Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Statistics

Possession
PAL
44%
CAT
56%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 1
44 Dangerous attacks 40
41 Possession 59
4 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 17
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
6 Goal Kicks 4
14 Throwins 14
8 Dribble Attempts 10
3 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
3 Injuries 1
9 Goal Attempts 15
63 Ball Safe 79
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

66 Attacks 58
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

6 Key Passes 11
316 Passes 461
76 Successful Passes Percentage 86
54 Long Passes 41
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
241 Successful Passes 397
25 Successful Long Passes 14

Defensive

37 Duels Won 45
7 Interceptions 12
6 Saves 3
11 Tackles 13

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 12
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
17 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Starting XI ▼

66
Jesse Joronen
Jesse Joronen Goalkeeper
7.02
13
Mattia Bani
Mattia Bani Defender
7.22
19
Bartosz Bereszyński
Bartosz Bereszyński
Defender63'
6.55
72
Davide Veroli
Davide Veroli Defender
6.8
96
Giangiacomo Magnani
Giangiacomo Magnani Defender
6.95
29
Patryk Peda
Patryk Peda
Defender69'
6.73
10
Filippo Ranocchia
Filippo Ranocchia Midfielder
7.3
17
Samuel Giovane
Samuel Giovane Midfielder
6.44
6
Claudio Gomes
Claudio Gomes
Midfielder88'
6.53
18
Rui Modesto
Rui Modesto Midfielder
6.4
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Midfielder
6.92
3
Tommaso Augello
Tommaso Augello
Defender46'
7.11
7
Dennis Johnsen
Dennis Johnsen Attacker
6.58
11
Emmanuel Gyasi
Emmanuel Gyasi Attacker
6.57
14
Aljosa Vasic
Aljosa Vasic
Midfielder63'
6.6
20
Joel Pohjanpalo
Joel Pohjanpalo Attacker
7.22
Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
6.77
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Defender
6.92
5
Ervin Bashi
Ervin Bashi
Defender88'
6.56
6
Fellipe Jack
Fellipe Jack Defender
6.93
62
Ruggero Frosinini
Ruggero Frosinini Defender
6.59
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro
Defender87'
6.98
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Midfielder
7.2
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti Midfielder
6.65
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Midfielder
6.94
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco Midfielder
6.81
39
N'Dri Koffi
N'Dri Koffi
Attacker71'
6.52
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Attacker
2
7
19
Patrick Nuamah
Patrick Nuamah Attacker
6.47
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi
Attacker61'
6.71
28
Rémi Oudin
Rémi Oudin Attacker
6.62
32
Fabio Rispoli
Fabio Rispoli
Midfielder71'
6.78

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Claudio Gomes → Samuel Giovane
10th Substitution
88'
88'
Event
Ervin Bashi → Matias Antonini
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Tommaso Cassandro → Ruggero Frosinini
8th Substitution
Event
Joel Pohjanpalo
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
86'
Event
Patryk Peda
Penalty awarded
84'
Event
Dennis Johnsen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
77'
71'
Event
N'Dri Koffi → Federico Di Francesco
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Fabio Rispoli → Rémi Oudin
7th Substitution
Event
Patryk Peda → Giangiacomo Magnani
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Aljosa Vasic → Emmanuel Gyasi
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Bartosz Bereszyński → Mattia Bani
3rd Substitution
63'
61'
Event
Gabriele Alesi → Patrick Nuamah
2nd Substitution
Event
Patrick Nuamah
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
54'
Event
Tommaso Augello → Niccolò Pierozzi
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Emmanuel Gyasi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+2'
32'
Event
Filippo Pittarello
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Dennis Johnsen
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
15'
3'
Event
Filippo Pittarello
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Simone Pontisso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Augello takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Johnsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Update Update
Claudio Gome is on, and Samuel Giovane is off.
88
Update Update
Ervin Bashi comes on for Matias Antonini Lui.
87
Update Update
Tommaso Cassandro comes on for Ruggero Frosinini.
86
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Joel Pohjanpalo scores, making it 3-2.
86
Attempt Attempt
Joel Pohjanpalo takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
84
Update Update
Penalty confirmed after a VAR decision.
78
Attempt Attempt
Simone Pontisso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dennis Johnsen receives a yellow card.
74
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
73
Attempt Attempt
Simone Pontisso attempts a header but misses the shot.
71
Update Update
Ndri Koffi comes on for Federico Di Francesco.
71
Update Update
Fabio Rispoli replaces Remi Oudin.
69
Update Update
Patryk Peda replaces Giangiacomo Magnani.
67
Attempt Attempt
Remi Oudin's left-footed shot is saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello attempts a header but misses the shot.
63
Update Update
Bartosz Bereszynski comes on for Mattia Bani.
63
Update Update
Aljosa Vasic replaces Emmanuel Gyasi.
62
Attempt Attempt
Federico Di Francesco's right-footed shot is blocked.
62
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello attempts a header but misses the shot.
61
Update Update
Gabriele Alesi is on, and Patrick Nuamah is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Giangiacomo Magnani's header is saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Joel Pohjanpalo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Giovane takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Johnsen's right-footed shot is saved.
54
Update Update
Own goal by Patrick Nuamah levels the score at 2-2.
46
Attempt Attempt
Costantino Favasuli takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
46
Update Update
Tommaso Augello replaces Niccolo Pierozzi.
43
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Johnsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Update Update
Goal! Filippo Pittarello scores, making it 1-2.
32
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
31
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Costantino Favasuli takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Johnsen scores with a right-footed shot.
15
Attempt Attempt
Remi Oudin's left-footed shot is saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Gyasi's right-footed shot is saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Rui Modesto's right-footed shot is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
2
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Giovane's left-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Palermo's 3-2 victory over Catanzaro exemplifies resilience and tactical nous. Down 1-2 at halftime with just 41% possession, they flipped the script in the second half, scoring crucial goals to secure the points. As the pre-designated stronger team, this moderate deviation win bolsters their promotion push. Market alignment held firm, efficiency matched norms, and absence of red cards or events ensured a pure test of quality. Palermo's finishing prowess overcame Catanzaro's control, delivering a morale-boosting result that highlights their championship potential.

Palermo vs Catanzaro preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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