Carrarese vs Cesena Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio dei Marmi Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Carrarese CAR
0 – 0
Cesena CES
Full Time Fri, 1 May 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Carrarese and Cesena played out a goalless 0-0 draw in a tightly contested match. The home side, identified as the stronger team, controlled 59% of possession compared to Cesena's 41%, yet failed to convert dominance into goals. The halftime score was 0-0, with the game remaining even at the break. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half adjustments reported. This outcome represents a significant 72% structural deviation from expectations favoring a Carrarese victory. Market alignment was absent, as pre-match probabilities leaned towards a home win at 39.8% versus 28% for draw and 32.3% for Cesena. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with prior assessments, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The result underscores Carrarese's inability to capitalize on territorial advantage against a resilient Cesena defense.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The draw showed a 72% significant deviation from expectations favoring Carrarese.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome consistency.
  • Market alignment: Market probabilities did not align with the draw result.
  • xG expectations: No xG expectations available due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No key events like second-half adjustments impacted the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards caused no distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Perenzoni

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Pascarella

1st Assistant

Gilberto Laghezza

2nd Assistant

A. Bortolussi

4th Official

Carrarese A. Calabro
A. Calabro
VS
Cesena A. Cole
A. Cole
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.96
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: 66 L
Pescara Rank: 48 D
Reggiana Rank: 45 L
Spezia Rank: 51 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 W
Sampdoria Rank: 53 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sampdoria Rank: 52 D
Palermo Rank: 63 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 55 L
Südtirol Rank: 51 D
Catanzaro Rank: 60 W
Mantova Rank: 55 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Carrarese
39.76%
Draw
27.95%
Away Cesena
32.29%

Movement

Changes since opening
Carrarese
+34.23%
Draw
-63.28%
Cesena
+29.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.47
52.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Carrarese
Cesena
Power Score
53.47
52.58
League Position
11
9
Global Rank
681
705

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score
Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Carrarese Cesena

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Carrarese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cesena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cesena
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.80
17.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.68
42.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Carrarese +2.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Cesena -2.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Carrarese
Cesena
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cesena
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Carrarese Cesena
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Carrarese Cesena
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Carrarese
Cesena
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Carrarese
vs
Cesena
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Carrarese Cesena
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Carrarese 0.51
Cesena 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Carrarese Cesena
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Carrarese 0.00
Cesena 0.00
Carrarese
Cesena
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CAR had peak pressure around 75'.
  • CAR started the game with stronger pressure.
CAR Pressure CES Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CAR reached the top pressure at 75' (92.30).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Carrarese CAR Home
3 matches
Cesena CES Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:01:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Bleve
Italy
1 M. Bleve
N. Calabrese
Italy
37 N. Calabrese
J. Illanes Minucci
Argentina
4 J. Illanes Minucci
F. Oliana
Italy
6 F. Oliana
S. Zanon
Substitution
Italy
72 S. Zanon
G. Parlanti
Substitution
Italy
77 G. Parlanti
N. Schiavi
Substitution
Argentina
18 N. Schiavi
L. Hasa
Italy
70 L. Hasa
N. Belloni
Italy
7 N. Belloni
F. Abiuso
Substitution
Italy
9 F. Abiuso
E. Torregrossa
Substitution
Venezuela
92 E. Torregrossa
Pitch
A. Siano
Italy
1 A. Siano
G. Frabotta
Substitution
Italy
99 G. Frabotta
M. Mangraviti
Substitution
Italy
24 M. Mangraviti
G. Zaro
Italy
19 G. Zaro
A. Ciofi
Italy
15 A. Ciofi
D. Bisoli
Italy
25 D. Bisoli
T. Berti
Italy
14 T. Berti
M. Olivieri
Italy
32 M. Olivieri
C. Shpendi
Substitution
Albania
9 C. Shpendi
R. Ciervo
Substitution
Italy
11 R. Ciervo
A. Cerri
Substitution
Italy
7 A. Cerri

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio dei Marmi
Capacity :
5000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mattia Pascarella
Gilberto Laghezza
Andrea Bortolussi
Daniele Perenzoni

Statistics

Possession
CAR
58%
CES
42%

Top Statistics

9 Shots 2
45 Dangerous attacks 25
59 Possession 41
10 Corners 4
8 Free kicks 18
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
4 Goal Kicks 15
21 Throwins 18
13 Dribble Attempts 13
7 Successful Dribbles 6
76 Ball Safe 88
9 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

78 Attacks 67

Possession

44 Long Passes 57
403 Successful Passes 261
477 Passes 348
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
84 Successful Passes Percentage 75
20 Successful Long Passes 22
19 Key Passes 3

Defensive

38 Duels Won 40
16 Tackles 11
8 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 3

Build-up

44 Total Crosses 8
15 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
18 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Perenzoni

Starting XI ▼

1
Marco Bleve
Marco Bleve Goalkeeper
6.83
4
Julián Illanes
Julián Illanes Defender
6.87
6
Filippo Oliana
Filippo Oliana Defender
6.77
37
Nicolò Calabrese
Nicolò Calabrese Defender
6.75
7
Niccolò Belloni
Niccolò Belloni Midfielder
6.72
18
Nicolás Schiavi
Nicolás Schiavi Midfielder
7.15
8
Filippo Melegoni
Filippo Melegoni
Midfielder65'
6.7
70
Luis Hasa
Luis Hasa Midfielder
7.05
72
Simone Zanon
Simone Zanon Midfielder
7.01
13
Devid Eugene Bouah
Devid Eugene Bouah
Midfielder76'
6.69
77
Gabriele Parlanti
Gabriele Parlanti Midfielder
6.56
17
Emanuele Zuelli
Emanuele Zuelli
Midfielder46'
6.98
9
Fabio Abiuso
Fabio Abiuso Attacker
6.97
32
Mattia Finotto
Mattia Finotto
Attacker83'
6.67
92
Ernesto Torregrossa
Ernesto Torregrossa Attacker
6.6
21
Tommaso Rubino
Tommaso Rubino
Attacker46'
6.75
Referee : Daniele Perenzoni

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Siano
Alessandro Siano Goalkeeper
7.38
15
Andrea Ciofi
Andrea Ciofi Defender
6.8
19
Giovanni Zaro
Giovanni Zaro Defender
7.06
24
Massimiliano Mangraviti
Massimiliano Mangraviti Defender
6.78
26
Matteo Piacentini
Matteo Piacentini
Defender85'
6.65
99
Gianluca Frabotta
Gianluca Frabotta Defender
6.91
27
Tommaso Corazza
Tommaso Corazza
Defender58'
6.76
9
Cristian Shpendi
Cristian Shpendi Midfielder
6.71
4
Michele Castagnetti
Michele Castagnetti
Midfielder78'
6.9
11
Riccardo Ciervo
Riccardo Ciervo Midfielder
6.85
8
Gaetano Castrovilli
Gaetano Castrovilli
Midfielder58'
6.58
14
Tommaso Berti
Tommaso Berti Midfielder
7.04
25
Dimitri Bisoli
Dimitri Bisoli Midfielder
6.84
32
Marco Olivieri
Marco Olivieri Midfielder
6.66
7
Alberto Cerri
Alberto Cerri Attacker
7.04
22
Giacomo Vrioni
Giacomo Vrioni
Attacker85'
6.55

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Matteo Piacentini → Massimiliano Mangraviti
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Giacomo Vrioni → Alberto Cerri
10th Substitution
Event
Mattia Finotto → Fabio Abiuso
8th Substitution
83'
78'
Event
Michele Castagnetti → Cristian Shpendi
7th Substitution
Event
Devid Eugene Bouah → Simone Zanon
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Nicolò Calabrese
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
72'
Event
Filippo Melegoni → Nicolás Schiavi
5th Substitution
65'
58'
Event
Gaetano Castrovilli → Riccardo Ciervo
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Tommaso Corazza → Gianluca Frabotta
4th Substitution
Event
Fabio Abiuso
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
55'
Event
Tommaso Rubino → Ernesto Torregrossa
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Emanuele Zuelli → Gabriele Parlanti
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Gabriele Parlanti
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'

Match Commentary

89
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Rubino's right-footed shot is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Luis Hasa takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Update Update
Giacomo Vrioni comes on for Alberto Cerri.
85
Update Update
Matteo Piacentini replaces Massimiliano Mangraviti.
83
Update Update
Mattia Finotto comes on for Fabio Abiuso.
82
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Zuelli's right-footed shot is blocked.
78
Update Update
Michele Castagnetti is on, and Cristian Shpendi is off.
77
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Zuelli's right-footed shot is blocked.
76
Update Update
Devid Eugene Bouah is on, and Simone Zanon is off.
75
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Shpendi takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Rubino's left-footed shot is blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Zuelli's right-footed shot is blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Zuelli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Luis Hasa's right-footed shot is blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Zuelli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Rubino takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Simone Zanon attempts a header but misses the shot.
67
Attempt Attempt
Luis Hasa's left-footed shot is blocked.
65
Update Update
Filippo Melegoni replaces Nicolas Schiavi.
63
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Zuelli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Zuelli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
61
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Zuelli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Update Update
Tommaso Corazza replaces Gianluca Frabotta.
58
Update Update
Gaetano Castrovilli replaces Riccardo Ciervo.
51
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Schiavi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
49
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Calabrese's right-footed shot is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Marco Olivieri takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Emanuele Zuelli replaces Gabriele Parlanti.
46
Update Update
Tommaso Rubino is on, and Ernesto Torregrossa is off.
39
Attempt Attempt
Luis Hasa's right-footed shot is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Abiuso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Luis Hasa attempts a header but misses the shot.
29
Attempt Attempt
Dimitri Bisoli takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Cerri takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Ciofi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Ciofi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriele Parlanti receives a yellow card.
10
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Parlanti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Schiavi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Attempt Attempt
Ernesto Torregrossa takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

The 0-0 draw leaves Carrarese with a frustrating result despite superior possession and status as the stronger team. Cesena's defensive solidity neutralized home pressure, leading to a significant structural deviation and market misalignment. Without xG insights, the focus remains on Carrarese's finishing inefficiency against a compact away setup. No red cards or major events influenced proceedings, highlighting tactical discipline from both sides. This outcome may prompt Carrarese to refine attacking patterns, while Cesena gains confidence from the point earned away. Overall, the match exemplified a low-scoring stalemate driven by balanced execution.

Carrarese vs Cesena preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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