Spezia vs Venezia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Picco Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Spezia SPE
2 – 2
Venezia VEN
Full Time Fri, 1 May 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Gabriele Artistico - 90'
Mattia Valoti - 73'
Goal
|
Goal
Richie Sagrado - 70'
John Yeboah - 7'
Filippo Bandinelli 45+2' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Spezia and Venezia played out a 2-2 draw in Serie B, with Venezia leading 1-0 at halftime despite Spezia's home advantage. Venezia controlled possession at 63% to Spezia's 37%, establishing themselves as the stronger team. However, Spezia suffered a red card, reducing them to 10 men for much of the second half, yet they fought back to level the score. This outcome marked a significant 77.5% structural deviation from pre-match expectations favoring Venezia. Market projections did not align with the draw, as Venezia underperformed relative to their favored status. Efficiency remained in line with typical patterns, but the red card introduced notable distortion in second-half play. The resilience shown by Spezia despite numerical inferiority and lower possession highlighted key tactical adjustments and individual efforts that neutralized Venezia's dominance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match showed a 77.5% significant structural deviation against expectations for Venezia.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match norms.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as the draw contradicted pre-match favoritism toward Venezia.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: The home red card altered game dynamics, enabling Spezia's second-half recovery.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was the primary second-half adjustment factor.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Colombo

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Meli

1st Assistant

S. Alassio

2nd Assistant

Andrea Rapuano

4th Official

Spezia L. D'Angelo
L. D'Angelo
VS
Venezia G. Stroppa
G. Stroppa
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.38
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Catanzaro Rank: 60 L
Südtirol Rank: 54 W
Mantova Rank: 52 L
Carrarese Rank: 53 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 L
Empoli Rank: 55 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Empoli Rank: 54 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 47 D
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 W
Monza Rank: 66 D
Calcio Padova Rank: 50 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Spezia
19.16%
Draw
22.5%
Away Venezia
58.34%

Movement

Changes since opening
Spezia
+16.87%
Draw
-65.32%
Venezia
+48.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.31
62.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spezia
Venezia
Power Score
51.31
62.73
League Position
19
1
Global Rank
741
199

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Venezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spezia Venezia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Spezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Venezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Spezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Venezia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.38
29.52
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.52
33.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Spezia +0.37 Efficiency Index
vs
Venezia -0.37 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Spezia
Venezia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Spezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Venezia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Spezia Venezia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Spezia Venezia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Spezia
Venezia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Spezia
vs
Venezia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Spezia Venezia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Spezia 0.41
Venezia 0.53
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Spezia Venezia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Spezia 0.06
Venezia 0.07
Spezia
Venezia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SPE had peak pressure around 91'.
  • VEN started the game with stronger pressure.
SPE Pressure VEN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SPE reached the top pressure at 91' (96.93).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spezia SPE Home
12 matches
Venezia VEN Away
Match Record
3
Wins
4
5
Draws
5
4
Losses
3
Goals
9
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
9
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:01:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
D. Mascardi
Italy
12 D. Mascardi
L. Sernicola
Italy
17 L. Sernicola
A. Matějů
Czech Republic
37 A. Matějů
G. Bonfanti
Italy
94 G. Bonfanti
L. Vignali
Substitution
Italy
32 L. Vignali
F. Bandinelli
Italy
25 F. Bandinelli
A. Romano
Substitution
Switzerland
60 A. Romano
M. Valoti
Substitution
Italy
5 M. Valoti
G. Aurelio
Substitution
Italy
31 G. Aurelio
G. Di Serio
Substitution
Italy
20 G. Di Serio
G. Lapadula
Peru
10 G. Lapadula
Pitch
F. Stankovic
Serbia
1 F. Stankovic
B. Franjić
Croatia
4 B. Franjić
M. Svoboda
Austria
30 M. Svoboda
J. Schingtienne
Belgium
3 J. Schingtienne
R. Haps
Substitution
Suriname
5 R. Haps
I. Doumbia
Italy
8 I. Doumbia
G. Busio
United States
6 G. Busio
E. Pérez Muñoz
Substitution
Spain
71 E. Pérez Muñoz
A. Hainaut
France
18 A. Hainaut
A. Adorante
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Adorante
J. Zamora
Substitution
Ecuador
10 J. Zamora

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Alberto Picco
Capacity :
10336
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Filippo Meli
Stefano Alassio
Andrea Rapuano
Andrea Colombo

Statistics

Possession
SPE
40%
VEN
60%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 4
3 Shots 4
27 Dangerous attacks 32
37 Possession 63
6 Corners 6
16 Free kicks 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

6 Dribble Attempts 12
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
19 Throwins 12
3 Successful Dribbles 7
2 Assists 2
10 Goal Kicks 8
0 Penalties 1
8 Goal Attempts 8
60 Ball Safe 93
1 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

52 Attacks 59
0 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
54 Long Passes 54
59 Successful Passes Percentage 82
124 Successful Passes 320
18 Successful Long Passes 28
211 Passes 391
8 Key Passes 12

Defensive

61 Duels Won 73
14 Tackles 14
7 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 1

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 9
8 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

23 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Andrea Colombo

Starting XI ▼

12
Diego Mascardi
Diego Mascardi Goalkeeper
6.8
17
Leonardo Sernicola
Leonardo Sernicola Defender
6.71
37
Ales Mateju
Ales Mateju Defender
6.81
94
Giovanni Bonfanti
Giovanni Bonfanti Defender
6.67
5
Mattia Valoti
Mattia Valoti Midfielder
7.15
90
Laurs Skjellerup
Laurs Skjellerup
Attacker80'
6.52
25
Filippo Bandinelli
Filippo Bandinelli Midfielder
6.67
31
Giuseppe Aurelio
Giuseppe Aurelio Midfielder
6.62
11
Pietro Beruatto
Pietro Beruatto
Defender66'
6.83
32
Luca Vignali
Luca Vignali Midfielder
6.52
34
Christian Comotto
Christian Comotto
Midfielder58'
6.69
60
Alessandro Romano
Alessandro Romano Midfielder
6.89
8
Ádám Nagy
Ádám Nagy
Midfielder80'
6.55
10
Gianluca Lapadula
Gianluca Lapadula Attacker
6.85
20
Giuseppe Di Serio
Giuseppe Di Serio Attacker
6.65
9
Gabriele Artistico
Gabriele Artistico
Attacker65'
6.93
Referee : Andrea Colombo

Starting XI ▼

1
Filip Stanković
Filip Stanković Goalkeeper
7.06
3
Joël Schingtienne
Joël Schingtienne Defender
6.77
4
Bartol Franjic
Bartol Franjic Defender
6.82
30
Michael Svoboda
Michael Svoboda Defender
7.13
5
Ridgeciano Haps
Ridgeciano Haps Midfielder
6.86
20
Richie Sagrado
Richie Sagrado
Defender67'
6.67
6
Gianluca Busio
Gianluca Busio Midfielder
7.35
8
Issa Doumbia
Issa Doumbia Midfielder
7.01
18
Antoine Hainaut
Antoine Hainaut Midfielder
7.12
71
Kike Pérez
Kike Pérez Midfielder
7.25
28
Matteo Dagasso
Matteo Dagasso
Midfielder68'
6.83
9
Andrea Adorante
Andrea Adorante Attacker
6.98
80
Antonio Casas
Antonio Casas
Attacker46'
6.64
10
John Yeboah
John Yeboah Attacker
7.33
21
Mattia Compagnon
Mattia Compagnon
Midfielder81'
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ádám Nagy
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Gabriele Artistico
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90'
87'
Event
Gianluca Busio
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Mattia Compagnon → John Yeboah
9th Substitution
Event
Ádám Nagy → Alessandro Romano
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Laurs Skjellerup → Mattia Valoti
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Ales Mateju
Goal awarded
75'
Event
Mattia Valoti
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
73'
70'
Event
Richie Sagrado
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
68'
Event
Matteo Dagasso → Kike Pérez
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Richie Sagrado → Ridgeciano Haps
5th Substitution
Event
Pietro Beruatto → Giuseppe Aurelio
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Gabriele Artistico → Giuseppe Di Serio
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Christian Comotto → Luca Vignali
2nd Substitution
58'
46'
Event
Antonio Casas → Andrea Adorante
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Filippo Bandinelli
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
45+2'
Event
Luca Vignali
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
43'
32'
Event
John Yeboah
GoalkeeperSave
29'
Event
Antoine Hainaut
Penalty awarded
14'
Event
Andrea Adorante
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
7'
Event
John Yeboah
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Mattia Valoti
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
5'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Lapadula attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Busio takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Artistico scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Christian Comotto attempts a header but misses the shot.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gianluca Busio receives a yellow card.
85
Attempt Attempt
Christian Comotto takes a right-footed shot but misses.
81
Update Update
Mattia Compagnon comes on for John Yeboah Zamora.
80
Update Update
Adam Nagy is on, and Alessandro Romano is off.
80
Update Update
Laurs Skjellerup replaces Mattia Valoti.
78
Attempt Attempt
Pietro Beruatto takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
76
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Dagasso's left-footed shot is blocked.
75
Update Update
The VAR decision confirms the goal.
73
Attempt Attempt
Ales Mateju attempted a header but missed the shot.
73
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Valoti scores with a right-footed shot.
70
Update Update
Goal! Richie Sagrado scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Michael Svoboda.
70
Attempt Attempt
Richie Sagrado scores with a right-footed shot.
68
Update Update
Matteo Dagasso replaces Enrique Perez Munoz.
67
Update Update
Richie Sagrado comes on for Ridgeciano Haps.
66
Substitution Substitution
Pietro Beruatto is substituted for Giuseppe Aurelio.
65
Update Update
Gabriele Artistico comes on for Giuseppe Di Serio.
64
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Manuel Casas Marin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
58
Update Update
Christian Comotto is on, and Luca Vignali is off.
57
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Busio takes a left-footed shot but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Ridgeciano Haps takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Issa Doumbia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Enrique Perez Munoz attempts a header but misses the shot.
46
Update Update
Antonio Manuel Casas Marin is on, and Andrea Adorante is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Lapadula's header is saved.
45
Red Card Red Card Important
Filippo Bandinelli receives a red card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Adorante attempts a header but misses the shot.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luca Vignali receives a yellow card.
37
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Romano's right-footed shot is blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Bandinelli takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
John Yeboah Zamora takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
John Yeboah Zamora takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! John Yeboah's attempt is stopped.
29
Update Update
Penalty confirmed after a VAR review.
28
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Hainaut takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Ridgeciano Haps takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Di Serio's right-footed shot is blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Ridgeciano Haps takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Romano's right-footed shot is saved.
7
Update Update
Goal! John Yeboah scores, making it 1-0 for Zamora.
7
Attempt Attempt
John Yeboah Zamora takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
5
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mattia Valoti receives a yellow card.
4
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Busio takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw reflected Spezia's determination, overcoming a halftime deficit and red card disadvantage against Venezia's 63% possession dominance. Venezia, despite superiority, could not secure victory, resulting in a significant deviation from structural expectations. Absent xG data, analysis hinges on possession disparity and disciplinary impact, with red card distortion explaining second-half shifts. Efficiency aligned with norms, but market misalignment underscores the upset nature. This result balances Venezia's control with Spezia's grit, typical of competitive Serie B fixtures where numerical challenges test resilience.

Spezia vs Venezia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.