Modena vs Reggiana Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Braglia Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Modena MOD
2 Winner 1
Reggiana Reggiana
Full Time Fri, 1 May 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Giuseppe Ambrosino - 56'
Francesco Zampano - 13'
Goal
|
Goal
Francesco Vicari - 65'
Giuseppe Ambrosino 69' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Modena defeated Reggiana 2-1 in a hard-fought encounter, taking a 1-0 lead into halftime with 53% possession. The second half saw Modena extend their advantage before Reggiana responded with a goal, but the home side held firm despite a red card reducing them to ten men. As the pre-designated stronger team, Modena demonstrated resilience under pressure, navigating the numerical disadvantage effectively. The match featured no knockout tie implications, with the final score reflecting Modena's overall control. Structural elements showed a significant 41.4% deviation favoring Modena, while efficiency stayed in line with norms. Market assessments aligned with the outcome, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The red card introduced distortion in second-half proceedings, altering flow and intensity.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Modena's 2-1 win exhibited a 41.4% significant structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned fully with pre-match market evaluations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without provided metrics.
  • Event impact: Home red card influenced second-half event dynamics significantly.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to Modena caused second-half adjustment distortions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Abisso

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Capaldo

1st Assistant

D. Garzelli

2nd Assistant

N. Turrini

4th Official

Modena A. Sottil
A. Sottil
VS
Reggiana P. Bisoli
P. Bisoli
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.73
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monza Rank: 66 L
Frosinone Rank: 65 L
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Südtirol Rank: 55 D
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 L
Mantova Rank: 55 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Palermo Rank: 64 D
Calcio Padova Rank: 48 L
Carrarese Rank: 55 W
Pescara Rank: 48 L
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 L
Monza Rank: 66 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Modena
58.58%
Draw
23.32%
Away Reggiana
18.11%

Movement

Changes since opening
Modena
-36.65%
Draw
+18.74%
Reggiana
+17.92%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.41
46.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Modena
Reggiana
Power Score
57.41
46.82
League Position
6
20
Global Rank
565
868

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Modena — Opponent-weighted form score
Reggiana — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Modena Reggiana

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Modena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Reggiana

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Modena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Reggiana
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.53
38.62
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.62
19.53
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Modena -1.82 Efficiency Index
vs
Reggiana +1.82 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Modena
Reggiana
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Modena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Reggiana
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Modena Reggiana
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Modena Reggiana
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Modena
Reggiana
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Modena
vs
Reggiana
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Modena Reggiana
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Modena 0.33
Reggiana 0.37
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Modena Reggiana
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Modena 0.02
Reggiana 0.07
Modena
Reggiana
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Reggiana had peak pressure around 87'.
  • MOD started the game with stronger pressure.
MOD Pressure Reggiana Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Reggiana reached the top pressure at 87' (87.45).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Modena MOD Home
5 matches
Reggiana Reggiana Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:02:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch
M. Pezzolato
Italy
22 M. Pezzolato
D. Tonoli
Italy
77 D. Tonoli
S. Nador
Togo
19 S. Nador
B. Nieling
Netherlands
20 B. Nieling
L. Zanimacchia
Italy
98 L. Zanimacchia
Y. Massolin
Substitution
France
17 Y. Massolin
F. Gerli
Substitution
Italy
16 F. Gerli
N. Pyyhtiä
Substitution
Finland
18 N. Pyyhtiä
F. Zampano
Substitution
Italy
7 F. Zampano
G. Ambrosino
Italy
10 G. Ambrosino
M. De Luca
Substitution
Italy
99 M. De Luca
Pitch
A. Micai
Italy
1 A. Micai
S. Bonetti
Substitution
Italy
43 S. Bonetti
M. Vanelli Lusuardi
Brazil
47 M. Vanelli Lusuardi
F. Vicari
Italy
34 F. Vicari
L. Libutti
Substitution
Italy
17 L. Libutti
M. Portanova
Italy
90 M. Portanova
L. Belardinelli
Substitution
Italy
57 L. Belardinelli
M. Bertagnoli
Substitution
Italy
26 M. Bertagnoli
N. Girma
Substitution
Switzerland
80 N. Girma
M. Lambourde
France
93 M. Lambourde
C. Gondo
Ivory Coast
11 C. Gondo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Alberto Braglia
Capacity :
21092
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Pasquale Capaldo
Dario Garzelli
Niccolò Turrini
Rosario Abisso

Statistics

Possession
MOD
52%
Reggiana
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 5
27 Dangerous attacks 43
53 Possession 47
2 Corners 4
21 Free kicks 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

19 Throwins 25
7 Successful Dribbles 2
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 17
2 Assists 1
6 Goal Kicks 5
14 Dribble Attempts 12
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Goal Attempts 7
70 Ball Safe 56

Attacking

86 Attacks 71
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

351 Passes 298
12 Successful Long Passes 16
44 Long Passes 46
27 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
80 Successful Passes Percentage 78
282 Successful Passes 231
8 Key Passes 9

Defensive

52 Duels Won 44
15 Tackles 13
3 Interceptions 2
4 Saves 0

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 4
9 Total Crosses 27

Discipline

16 Fouls 21
2 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Rosario Abisso

Starting XI ▼

22
Michele Pezzolato
Michele Pezzolato Goalkeeper
7.13
19
Steven Nador
Steven Nador Defender
6.99
20
Bryant Nieling
Bryant Nieling Defender
6.94
77
Daniel Tonoli
Daniel Tonoli Defender
7.13
7
Francesco Zampano
Francesco Zampano Midfielder
6.76
29
Matteo Cotali
Matteo Cotali
Defender83'
6.63
16
Fabio Gerli
Fabio Gerli Midfielder
6.86
8
Simone Santoro
Simone Santoro
Midfielder6'
7.09
17
Yanis Massolin
Yanis Massolin Midfielder
6.94
71
Samuel Wiafe
Samuel Wiafe
Midfielder83'
6.63
18
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Niklas Pyyhtiä Midfielder
6.76
5
Alessandro Sersanti
Alessandro Sersanti
Midfielder72'
6.88
98
Luca Zanimacchia
Luca Zanimacchia Midfielder
6.94
10
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Giuseppe Ambrosino Attacker
6.94
99
Manuel De Luca
Manuel De Luca Attacker
6.83
11
Pedro Mendes
Pedro Mendes
Attacker72'
6.72
Referee : Rosario Abisso

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Micai
Alessandro Micai Goalkeeper
6.93
17
Lorenzo Libutti
Lorenzo Libutti Defender
6.56
16
Tobías Reinhart
Tobías Reinhart
Midfielder74'
7
34
Francesco Vicari
Francesco Vicari Defender
6.67
43
Simone Bonetti
Simone Bonetti Defender
6.49
33
Alessandro Tripaldelli
Alessandro Tripaldelli
Defender46'
6.56
47
Mateus Lusuardi
Mateus Lusuardi Defender
6.66
26
Massimo Bertagnoli
Massimo Bertagnoli Midfielder
6.73
77
Tommaso Fumagalli
Tommaso Fumagalli
Attacker84'
6.83
57
Luca Belardinelli
Luca Belardinelli Midfielder
6.49
9
Andrija Novakovich
Andrija Novakovich
Attacker58'
6.66
80
Natan Girma
Natan Girma Midfielder
6.9
10
Kleis Bozhanaj
Kleis Bozhanaj
Midfielder57'
6.6
90
Manolo Portanova
Manolo Portanova Midfielder
6.91
93
Mathis Lambourde
Mathis Lambourde Midfielder
6.66
11
Cedric Gondo
Cedric Gondo Attacker
6.83

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Manolo Portanova
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Tommaso Fumagalli → Massimo Bertagnoli
10th Substitution
Event
Samuel Wiafe → Yanis Massolin
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Matteo Cotali → Francesco Zampano
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Simone Santoro
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
76'
74'
Event
Tobías Reinhart → Lorenzo Libutti
7th Substitution
Event
Alessandro Sersanti → Niklas Pyyhtiä
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Pedro Mendes → Manuel De Luca
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
69'
65'
Event
Francesco Vicari
Header / 3rd Goal
58'
Event
Andrija Novakovich → Luca Belardinelli
4th Substitution
Event
Giuseppe Ambrosino
4th Yellowcard
57'
57'
Event
Kleis Bozhanaj → Natan Girma
3rd Substitution
Event
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
56'
56'
Event
Luca Belardinelli
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Alessandro Tripaldelli → Simone Bonetti
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Simone Bonetti
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Francesco Zampano
1st Yellowcard
14'
Event
Francesco Zampano
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
13'
Event
Simone Santoro → Fabio Gerli
1st Substitution
6'
Event
Manuel De Luca
Penalty disallowed
2'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Fumagalli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Fumagalli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Andrija Novakovich takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Manolo Portanova receives a yellow card.
84
Update Update
Tommaso Fumagalli comes on for Massimo Bertagnoli.
84
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Fumagalli takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Update Update
Matteo Cotali replaces Francesco Zampano.
83
Substitution Substitution
Samuel Wiafe is substituted for Yanis Massolin.
83
Attempt Attempt
Andrija Novakovich takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Attempt Attempt
Cedric Gondo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Andrija Novakovich's left-footed shot is blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Cedric Gondo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Kleis Bozhanaj takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
74
Attempt Attempt
Simone Santoro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Tobias Reinhart is on, and Lorenzo Libutti is off.
72
Update Update
Alessandro Sersanti comes on for Niklas Pyyhtia.
72
Substitution Substitution
Pedro Manuel Lobo Peixoto Mineiro Mendes is substituted for Manuel De Luca.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card shown to Giuseppe Ambrosino.
67
Attempt Attempt
Andrija Novakovich takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Lambourde takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Update Update
Francesco Vicari scores with a header.
65
Attempt Attempt
Andrija Novakovich takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Update Update
Kleis Bozhanaj comes on for Natan Girma.
58
Attempt Attempt
Cedric Gondo takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
57
Update Update
Andrija Novakovich comes on for Luca Belardinelli.
56
Update Update
Goal! Giuseppe Ambrosino scores, making it 2-0.
56
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Ambrosino takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
50
Attempt Attempt
Yanis Massolin's left-footed shot is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Lusuardi's right-footed shot is blocked.
46
Update Update
Alessandro Tripaldelli comes on for Simone Bonetti.
37
Attempt Attempt
Luca Zanimacchia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Niklas Pyyhtia takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Ambrosino takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Francesco Zampano takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Francesco Zampano receives a yellow card.
13
Attempt Attempt
Manolo Portanova takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
13
Update Update
Goal! Francesco Zampano scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Luca Zanimacchia.
11
Attempt Attempt
Natan Girma's right-footed shot is blocked.
6
Update Update
Simone Santoro comes on for Fabio Gerli.
2
Update Update
The VAR decision has cancelled the penalty.
1
Attempt Attempt
Manuel De Luca's right-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Modena's 2-1 triumph over Reggiana underscores their status as the stronger side, overcoming a halftime lead protection and a critical red card in the second period. Holding 53% possession and scoring twice against a resilient opponent highlights defensive solidity post-red card. The significant 41.4% structural deviation amplified Modena's edge, with efficiencies holding steady and market alignment confirmed. Absent xG data limits performance nuance, but red card distortion clearly shaped the latter stages, forcing adaptive play that secured victory. This result bolsters Modena's standing analytically.

Modena vs Reggiana preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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