Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dinamo Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
RZD Arena Fri, 1 May - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
1 – 1
Dinamo Moskva DMO
Full Time Fri, 1 May 4:30 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Artem Karpukas - 53'
Goal
|
Goal
Nicolás Marichal - 24'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Lokomotiv Moskva 1–1 Dinamo Moskva. The match ended in a draw. Dinamo Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The 1-1 draw showed a significant 100% deviation from expectations for stronger team Dinamo Moskva.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevents assessment of outcome alignment with chance quality.
  • Market alignment: Final draw outcome aligned fully with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: Lack of xG data leaves pre-match expectations unquantified against actual performance.
  • Event impact: No major events like red cards or adjustments altered the match's structural flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from disciplinary actions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Kukulyak

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Bolotenkov

2nd Assistant

A. Prokopov

4th Official

D. Mosyakin

1st Assistant

Lokomotiv Moskva M. Galaktionov
M. Galaktionov
VS
Dinamo Moskva P. Alpatov
P. Alpatov
1.57
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.57
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 L
Zenit Rank: 80 D
Orenburg Rank: 52 W
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 56 D
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 L
Akron Rank: 55 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sochi Rank: 51 W
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 L
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 D
Akron Rank: 54 W
Orenburg Rank: 54 D
Zenit Rank: 80 L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 12 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lokomotiv Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Dinamo Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.52
69.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lokomotiv Moskva
Dinamo Moskva
Power Score
69.52
69.78
League Position
3
7
Global Rank
206
203

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lokomotiv Moskva Dinamo Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lokomotiv Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lokomotiv Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.40
23.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.50
33.40
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lokomotiv Moskva +1.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Moskva -1.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiv Moskva
Dinamo Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lokomotiv Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lokomotiv Moskva Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lokomotiv Moskva Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiv Moskva
Dinamo Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lokomotiv Moskva
vs
Dinamo Moskva
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lokomotiv Moskva Dinamo Moskva
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.26
Dinamo Moskva 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lokomotiv Moskva Dinamo Moskva
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.03
Dinamo Moskva 0.02
Lokomotiv Moskva
Dinamo Moskva
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lokomotiv Moskva had peak pressure around 17'.
  • Lokomotiv Moskva started the game with stronger pressure.
Lokomotiv Moskva Pressure DMO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lokomotiv Moskva reached the top pressure at 17' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 43 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Home
43 matches
Dinamo Moskva DMO Away
Match Record
17
Wins
14
12
Draws
12
14
Losses
17
Goals
75
Goals Scored
70
70
Goals Conceded
75
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:03:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Mitryushkin
Russia
1 A. Mitryushkin
A. Silyanov
Russia
45 A. Silyanov
E. Morozov
Russia
85 E. Morozov
C. Montes Castro
Substitution
Mexico
23 C. Montes Castro
Lucas Fasson
Brazil
3 Lucas Fasson
D. Prutsev
Substitution
Russia
25 D. Prutsev
A. Karpukas
Russia
93 A. Karpukas
A. Rudenko
Substitution
Russia
19 A. Rudenko
A. Batrakov
Russia
83 A. Batrakov
S. Pinyaev
Substitution
Russia
9 S. Pinyaev
D. Vorobyev
Substitution
Russia
10 D. Vorobyev
Pitch
K. Rasulov
Russia
40 K. Rasulov
M. Majstorovic
Substitution
Serbia
5 M. Majstorovic
M. Osipenko
Russia
55 M. Osipenko
N. Marichal
Uruguay
2 N. Marichal
J. Cáceres
Substitution
Argentina
4 J. Cáceres
D. Fomin
Russia
74 D. Fomin
L. Chávez Magallón
Substitution
Mexico
24 L. Chávez Magallón
A. Gomes Lourenço
Substitution
Brazil
11 A. Gomes Lourenço
J. de Souza Mares
Substitution
Brazil
10 J. de Souza Mares
Y. Gladyshev
Russia
91 Y. Gladyshev
K. Tyukavin
Russia
70 K. Tyukavin

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
RZD Arena
Capacity :
28800
Attendance :
15894
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrey Bolotenkov
Andrey Prokopov
Evgeny Kukulyak
Dmitri Mosyakin

Statistics

Possession
Lokomotiv Moskva
50%
DMO
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 7
54 Dangerous attacks 35
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 24
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

15 Throwins 21
13 Successful Headers 15
16 Dribble Attempts 11
6 Successful Dribbles 4
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
1 Assists 1
4 Goal Kicks 7
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5
81 Ball Safe 78
2 Injuries 1
11 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

87 Attacks 88
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
327 Successful Passes 330
423 Passes 421
77 Successful Passes Percentage 78
15 Successful Long Passes 34
52 Long Passes 63

Defensive

8 Interceptions 14
41 Duels Won 48
11 Tackles 11
3 Saves 2

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 20
9 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

19 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Evgeny Kukulyak

Starting XI ▼

1
Anton Mitryushkin
Anton Mitryushkin Goalkeeper
6.87
3
Lucas Fasson
Lucas Fasson Defender
6.87
23
César Montes
César Montes Defender
7.08
5
Gerzino Nyamsi
Gerzino Nyamsi
Defender22'
6.78
45
Alexander Silyanov
Alexander Silyanov Defender
6.85
85
Evgeniy Morozov
Evgeniy Morozov Defender
6.71
9
Sergey Pinyaev
Sergey Pinyaev Midfielder
6.71
7
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Midfielder46'
6.77
19
Aleksandr Rudenko
Aleksandr Rudenko Midfielder
6.84
14
Nikita Saltykov
Nikita Saltykov
Midfielder73'
6.55
25
Danil Prutsev
Danil Prutsev Midfielder
6.28
32
Lucas Vera
Lucas Vera
Midfielder73'
6.6
83
Aleksey Batrakov
Aleksey Batrakov Midfielder
7.72
93
Artem Karpukas
Artem Karpukas Midfielder
6.91
10
Dmitry Vorobyev
Dmitry Vorobyev Attacker
7.16
27
Nikolay Komlichenko
Nikolay Komlichenko
Attacker58'
6.87
Referee : Evgeny Kukulyak

Starting XI ▼

40
Kurban Rasulov
Kurban Rasulov Goalkeeper
6.7
2
Nicolás Marichal
Nicolás Marichal Defender
7.05
4
Juan José Cáceres
Juan José Cáceres Defender
6.92
57
David Ricardo
David Ricardo
Defender74'
6.86
5
M. Majstorović
M. Majstorović Defender
6.73
7
Dmitri Skopintsev
Dmitri Skopintsev
Defender57'
6.73
55
Maksim Osipenko
Maksim Osipenko Defender
7
10
Bitello
Bitello Midfielder
7.53
33
Ivan Sergeev
Ivan Sergeev
Attacker74'
6.77
11
Arthur Gomes
Arthur Gomes Midfielder
6.91
13
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Attacker46'
6.79
24
Luis Chávez
Luis Chávez Midfielder
6.83
15
Danil Glebov
Danil Glebov
Midfielder63'
6.72
74
Daniil Fomin
Daniil Fomin Midfielder
6.78
91
Y. Gladyshev
Y. Gladyshev Midfielder
6.61
70
K. Tyukavin
K. Tyukavin Attacker
7.07

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Aleksey Batrakov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+3'
Event
David Ricardo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Dmitri Skopintsev
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
Event
David Ricardo → Juan José Cáceres
9th Substitution
74'
Event
Ivan Sergeev → Bitello
10th Substitution
Event
Nikita Saltykov → Aleksandr Rudenko
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Lucas Vera → Danil Prutsev
8th Substitution
73'
Event
Gerzino Nyamsi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
70'
63'
Event
Danil Glebov → Luis Chávez
6th Substitution
Event
Nikolay Komlichenko → Dmitry Vorobyev
5th Substitution
58'
57'
Event
Dmitri Skopintsev → M. Majstorović
4th Substitution
Event
Artem Karpukas
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
53'
Event
Zelimkhan Bakaev → Sergey Pinyaev
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu → Arthur Gomes
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
24'
Event
Nicolás Marichal
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Gerzino Nyamsi → César Montes
1st Substitution
22'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Zelimkhan Bakaev takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Iaroslav Gladyshev takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Iaroslav Gladyshev takes a left-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Attempt Attempt
Nikita Saltykov takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Nikita Saltykov takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dmitri Skopintsev receives a yellow card.
77
Attempt Attempt
Gerzino Nyamsi takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
74
Update Update
David Ricardo Loiola da Silva replaces Juan Cáceres.
73
Update Update
Nikita Saltykov is on, and Aleksandr Rudenko is off.
73
Update Update
David Ricardo Loiola da Silva comes on for Juan Cáceres.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gerzino Nyamsi receives a yellow card.
65
Attempt Attempt
Danil Glebov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Marichal Perez takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
63
Update Update
Danil Glebov comes on for Luis Chavez.
58
Update Update
Nikolay Komlichenko comes on for Dmitry Vorobyev.
57
Update Update
Dmitri Skopintsev is on, and Milan Majstorovic is off.
54
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandr Rudenko takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Dmitry Vorobyev takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
53
Attempt Attempt
Gerzino Nyamsi takes a header shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Artem Karpukas takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
47
Attempt Attempt
Dmitry Vorobyev attempts a header but misses the shot.
46
Update Update
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu is on, and Arthur Gomes is off.
46
Update Update
Zelimkhan Bakaev is on, and Sergey Pinyaev is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandr Rudenko takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandr Rudenko takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Fasson takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Daniil Fomin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Alexey Batrakov took a left-footed shot, but it was saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Joao Paulo de Souza Mares takes a shot, but Bitello blocks it with his right foot.
24
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Marichal Perez takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
23
Attempt Attempt
Milan Majstorovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Substitution Substitution
Gerzino Nyamsi is substituted off for Cesar Jasib Montes Castro.
19
Attempt Attempt
Luis Chavez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Cesar Jasib Montes Castro attempts a header but misses the shot.

CONCLUSION

In a derby defined by balance and grit, Lokomotiv Moskva's second-half equalizer secured a vital point against favored Dinamo Moskva, flipping the halftime deficit into a 1-1 stalemate. Even possession reflected tactical parity, with neither side dominating. Dinamo's failure to hold their lead underscores the significant deviation from their stronger billing, yet efficiencies held steady without market misalignment. Absent xG insights or disruptive events, the draw feels like a fair reflection of a cagey affair. Both clubs gain momentum from the shared spoils, but Dinamo may rue missed opportunities to assert superiority, while Lokomotiv builds confidence in comebacks. This result sets up intriguing pathways ahead in the season.

Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dinamo Moskva preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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