Pisa vs Lecce Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani Today - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Pisa PIS
Versus
Lecce LEC
KICKOFF : Today - 6:45 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

Pisa vs Lecce preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Pisa host Lecce at the Arena Garibaldi in a crucial Serie A regular season clash during the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting rock-bottom in 20th place, Pisa desperately need points to climb out of the relegation zone, while 17th-placed Lecce aim to solidify their mid-table safety. Lecce arrive as the stronger side, boasting a power score of 67.95 against Pisa's 54.27, translating to a 13.7-point advantage. Recent form slightly favors the hosts, with Pisa's 5.89 edging Lecce's 3.06, suggesting momentum could play a role in this survival scrap. The compact Stadio Romeo Anconetani often amplifies home advantage, where Pisa's defensive resilience might test Lecce's attacking intent. Both teams lurk in the lower echelons, making this a gritty encounter defined by tactical discipline and opportunistic moments. With limited advanced metrics available, the focus falls on execution and mentality.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Lecce possesses a clear structural edge with a 67.95 power score versus Pisa's 54.27, a 13.7-point advantage.
  • Form: Pisa shows superior recent form at 5.89 compared to Lecce's 3.06.
  • Squad: Lecce's higher power rating indicates stronger squad quality overall.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG information.
  • xVariable: Advanced xG variables not accessible for this fixture.
  • Market: Pisa 27.2% (Δ+0.2%) | Draw 31.7% (Δ+-0%) | Lecce 41.2% (Δ-0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Pisa O. Hiljemark
O. Hiljemark
VS
Lecce E. Di Francesco
E. Di Francesco
0.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.92
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Parma Rank: 72 L
Genoa Rank: 74 L
Roma Rank: 83 L
Torino Rank: 75 L
Como Rank: 83 L
Cagliari Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hellas Verona Rank: 63 D
Fiorentina Rank: 77 D
Bologna Rank: 78 L
Atalanta Rank: 84 L
Roma Rank: 84 L
Napoli Rank: 86 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Pisa
27.15%
Draw
31.66%
Away Lecce
41.2%

Movement

Changes since opening
Pisa
+0.23%
Draw
-0.01%
Lecce
-0.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.27
67.95
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Pisa
Lecce
Power Score
54.27
67.95
League Position
20
17
Global Rank
373
247

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Pisa — Opponent-weighted form score
Lecce — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Pisa Lecce

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Pisa PIS Home
7 matches
Lecce LEC Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
6
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T18:00:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Šemper
Croatia
1 A. Šemper
S. Canestrelli
Italy
5 S. Canestrelli
A. Caracciolo
Italy
4 A. Caracciolo
R. Bozhinov
Bulgaria
2 R. Bozhinov
M. Marcel Léris
Algeria
7 M. Marcel Léris
E. Akinsanmiro
Nigeria
14 E. Akinsanmiro
M. Aebischer
Switzerland
20 M. Aebischer
?. Vural
Sweden
21 ?. Vural
S. Angori
Italy
3 S. Angori
F. Stojilkovic
Switzerland
81 F. Stojilkovic
S. Moreo
Italy
32 S. Moreo
W. Falcone
Italy
30 W. Falcone
A. Gallo
Italy
25 A. Gallo
44
44
J. Siebert
Germany
5 J. Siebert
D. Melo Veiga
Portugal
17 D. Melo Veiga
79
79
Y. Ramadani
Albania
20 Y. Ramadani
L. Banda
Zambia
19 L. Banda
L. Coulibaly
Mali
29 L. Coulibaly
S. Pierotti
Argentina
50 S. Pierotti
W. Cheddira
Morocco
99 W. Cheddira

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
Capacity
10442
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniele Doveri
Paride Tremolada
Alessandro Lo Cicero
Paolo Laudato

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Doveri

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Semper
Adrian Semper Goalkeeper
6.94
2
Rosen Bozhinov
Rosen Bozhinov Defender
6.81
4
Antonio Caracciolo
Antonio Caracciolo Defender
6.72
5
Simone Canestrelli
Simone Canestrelli Defender
6.64
3
Samuele Angori
Samuele Angori Midfielder
6.75
7
Mehdi Léris
Mehdi Léris Midfielder
6.75
14
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro Midfielder
6.81
20
Michel Aebischer
Michel Aebischer Midfielder
6.85
21
İsak Vural
İsak Vural Midfielder
6.62
32
Stefano Moreo
Stefano Moreo Attacker
6.94
81
Filip Stojilkovic
Filip Stojilkovic Attacker
6.43
Referee : Daniele Doveri

Starting XI ▼

30
Wladimiro Falcone
Wladimiro Falcone Goalkeeper
6.79
5
Jamil Siebert
Jamil Siebert Defender
6.74
17
Danilo Veiga
Danilo Veiga Defender
6.69
25
Antonino Gallo
Antonino Gallo Defender
6.72
44
Tiago Gabriel Defender
19
Lameck Banda
Lameck Banda Midfielder
6.64
20
Ylber Ramadani
Ylber Ramadani Midfielder
6.82
29
Lassana Coulibaly
Lassana Coulibaly Midfielder
6.83
50
Santiago Pierotti
Santiago Pierotti Midfielder
6.54
79
Oumar Ngom Midfielder
99
Walid Cheddira
Walid Cheddira Attacker
6.6

CONCLUSION

This Serie A showdown pits desperate Pisa against marginally safer Lecce, with the visitors' superior power rating positioning them as favorites despite Pisa's form edge. Home support at Arena Garibaldi could fuel an upset, but Lecce's 13.7-point advantage underscores their quality gap. Expect a cagey affair low on clear chances, hinging on set pieces and transitions where data is sparse. Pisa's 20th-place peril demands bravery, yet Lecce's 17th standing allows calculated risk. Key battles in midfield will dictate control, with efficiency in both boxes proving decisive. Ultimately, Lecce's structural superiority likely tips the scales in a tightly contested battle for vital points.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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