Leeds United vs Burnley Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Elland Road Fri, 1 May - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Leeds United LEE
3 Winner 1
Burnley BUR
Full Time Fri, 1 May 7:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Dominic Calvert-Lewin - 56'
Noah Okafor - 52'
Anton Stach - 8'
Goal
|
Goal
Loum Tchaouna - 71'

CONTEXT

Leeds United claimed a convincing 3-1 victory over Burnley, reinforcing their status as the stronger side in this Championship encounter. The hosts struck first in the opening half, leading 1-0 at halftime despite Burnley enjoying 52% possession compared to Leeds' 48%. After the break, Leeds capitalized on their opportunities, netting two more goals to pull ahead decisively, while Burnley managed only a late consolation. Without any red cards or major disruptions, the game flowed naturally, allowing tactical battles to unfold. Leeds' clinical finishing overcame Burnley's territorial advantage, marking a performance with notable structural deviation. This win extends Leeds' positive momentum, highlighting their ability to convert limited possession into tangible results against a resilient opponent.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed a significant 31.2% structural deviation in favor of Leeds United.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiency remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without differential data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's course.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Bramall

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Hatzidakis

1st Assistant

A. Herczeg

4th Official

C. Taylor

2nd Assistant

Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
VS
Burnley M. James Jackson
M. James Jackson
1.16
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.4
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 W
Manchester United Rank: 91 W
Brentford Rank: 88 D
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 D
Sunderland Rank: 81 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester City Rank: 98 L
Nottingham Forest Rank: 85 L
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 89 L
Fulham Rank: 86 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 D
Everton Rank: 87 L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 4 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Leeds United
68.82%
Draw
19.95%
Away Burnley
11.22%

Movement

Changes since opening
Leeds United
-29.04%
Draw
+18.03%
Burnley
+11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
86.84
64.26
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Leeds United
Burnley
Power Score
86.84
64.26
League Position
14
19
Global Rank
26
86

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Burnley — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Leeds United Burnley

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Leeds United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Burnley

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Leeds United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burnley
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.50
20.77
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.77
42.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Leeds United +2.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Burnley -2.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Leeds United
Burnley
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Leeds United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burnley
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Leeds United Burnley
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Leeds United Burnley
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Leeds United
Burnley
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Leeds United
vs
Burnley
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Leeds United Burnley
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Leeds United 0.38
Burnley 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Leeds United Burnley
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Leeds United 0.03
Burnley 0.06
Leeds United
Burnley
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEE had peak pressure around 9'.
  • LEE started the game with stronger pressure.
LEE Pressure BUR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LEE reached the top pressure at 9' (84.94).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Leeds United LEE Home
22 matches
Burnley BUR Away
Match Record
11
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
11
Goals
29
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
29
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:03:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
K. Darlow
Wales
26 K. Darlow
J. Rodon
Wales
6 J. Rodon
J. Bijol
Slovenia
15 J. Bijol
P. Struijk
Netherlands
5 P. Struijk
J. Bogle
Substitution
England
2 J. Bogle
A. Stach
Substitution
Germany
18 A. Stach
E. Ampadu
Wales
4 E. Ampadu
A. Tanaka
Substitution
Japan
22 A. Tanaka
J. Justin
England
24 J. Justin
D. Calvert-Lewin
Substitution
England
9 D. Calvert-Lewin
N. Okafor
Substitution
Switzerland
19 N. Okafor
Pitch
M. Dúbravka
Slovakia
1 M. Dúbravka
Q. Hartman
Substitution
Netherlands
3 Q. Hartman
B. Humphreys
Substitution
England
12 B. Humphreys
M. Esteve
France
5 M. Esteve
H. Ekdal
Sweden
18 H. Ekdal
K. Walker
England
2 K. Walker
J. Anthony
England
11 J. Anthony
J. Ward-Prowse
Substitution
England
20 J. Ward-Prowse
J. Laurent
Substitution
England
29 J. Laurent
L. Tchaouna
France
17 L. Tchaouna
Z. Flemming
Substitution
Netherlands
19 Z. Flemming

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Elland Road
Capacity :
40242
Attendance :
36265
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Constantine Hatzidakis
Adam Herczeg
Thomas Bramall
Craig Taylor

Statistics

Possession
LEE
49%
BUR
51%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 0
11 Shots 5
48 Dangerous attacks 36
48 Possession 52
5 Corners 0
12 Free kicks 12
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

14 Throwins 22
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
23 Successful Headers 21
4 Goal Kicks 7
9 Dribble Attempts 12
2 Assists 1
3 Successful Dribbles 6
12 Goal Attempts 4
73 Ball Safe 80
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

115 Attacks 80

Possession

356 Successful Passes 414
24 Successful Long Passes 20
79 Successful Passes Percentage 82
57 Long Passes 50
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
13 Key Passes 7
448 Passes 503

Defensive

12 Interceptions 8
10 Tackles 14
46 Duels Won 53
2 Saves 5

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 8
6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

12 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Bramall

Starting XI ▼

26
Karl Darlow
Karl Darlow Goalkeeper
6.83
5
Pascal Struijk
Pascal Struijk Defender
6.93
6
Joe Rodon
Joe Rodon Defender
6.76
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Defender
6.88
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle Midfielder
6.59
7
Daniel James
Daniel James
Midfielder90+4'
6.55
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu Midfielder
6.99
18
Anton Stach
Anton Stach Midfielder
7.25
11
Brenden Aaronson
Brenden Aaronson
Midfielder72'
6.76
22
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka Midfielder
6.78
8
Sean Longstaff
Sean Longstaff
Midfielder72'
6.99
24
James Justin
James Justin Midfielder
6.9
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Attacker
6.9
29
Wilfried Gnonto
Wilfried Gnonto
Attacker90+4'
6.67
19
Noah Okafor
Noah Okafor Attacker
6.8
14
Lukas Nmecha
Lukas Nmecha
Attacker65'
6.71
Referee : Thomas Bramall

Starting XI ▼

1
Martin Dúbravka
Martin Dúbravka Goalkeeper
6.87
2
Kyle Walker
Kyle Walker Defender
6.53
3
Quilindschy Hartman
Quilindschy Hartman Defender
6.74
23
Lucas Pires
Lucas Pires
Defender65'
6.68
5
Maxime Estève
Maxime Estève Defender
6.67
12
Bashir Humphreys
Bashir Humphreys Defender
6.81
25
Zeki Amdouni
Zeki Amdouni
Attacker76'
6.69
18
Hjalmar Ekdal
Hjalmar Ekdal Defender
6.68
11
Jaidon Anthony
Jaidon Anthony Midfielder
6.84
17
Loum Tchaouna
Loum Tchaouna Midfielder
6.56
20
James Ward-Prowse
James Ward-Prowse Midfielder
6.93
16
Florentino
Florentino
Midfielder65'
6.67
29
Josh Laurent
Josh Laurent Midfielder
6.48
28
Hannibal
Hannibal
Midfielder54'
6.67
19
Zian Flemming
Zian Flemming Attacker
6.86
27
Armando Broja
Armando Broja
Attacker76'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Daniel James → Jayden Bogle
10th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Wilfried Gnonto → Dominic Calvert-Lewin
9th Substitution
90+4'
88'
Event
Hannibal
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Zeki Amdouni → Bashir Humphreys
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Armando Broja → Zian Flemming
8th Substitution
Event
Ethan Ampadu
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Brenden Aaronson → Anton Stach
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Sean Longstaff → Ao Tanaka
6th Substitution
72'
71'
Event
Loum Tchaouna
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
69'
Event
Lucas Pires
Var
Event
Lukas Nmecha → Noah Okafor
3rd Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Florentino → James Ward-Prowse
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Lucas Pires → Quilindschy Hartman
4th Substitution
Event
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
56'
54'
Event
Hannibal → Josh Laurent
1st Substitution
Event
Noah Okafor
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
52'
Event
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
48'
1ST-HALF
Event
Joe Rodon
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
40'
37'
Event
Loum Tchaouna
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
35'
Event
Bashir Humphreys
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Pascal Struijk
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'
Event
Anton Stach
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
8'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Daniel James comes on for Jayden Bogle.
90
Update Update
Degnand Wilfried Gnonto comes on for Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kyle Walker's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Update Update
Zeki Amdouni's header is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hannibal Mejbri takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jaidon Anthony takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel James takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hannibal Mejbri receives a yellow card.
85
Attempt Attempt
Joe Rodon's header is saved.
76
Update Update
Zeki Amdouni is on, and Bashir Humphreys is off.
76
Update Update
Armando Broja comes on for Zian Flemming.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ethan Ampadu receives a yellow card.
74
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Nmecha takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Update Update
Brenden Aaronson comes on for Anton Stach.
72
Substitution Substitution
Sean Longstaff is substituted for Ao Tanaka.
71
Update Update
Goal! Loum Tchaouna scores, making it 3-1.
71
Attempt Attempt
Loum Tchaouna takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
68
Attempt Attempt
Bashir Humphreys takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
68
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Lucas Pires Silva.
65
Update Update
Lukas Nmecha comes on for Noah Okafor.
65
Attempt Attempt
Pascal Struijk attempts a header but misses the shot.
65
Substitution Substitution
Lucas Pires Silva is substituted for Quilindschy Hartman.
65
Update Update
Florentino Ibrain Morris Luis comes on for James Ward-Prowse.
56
Attempt Attempt
Dominic Calvert-Lewin takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
56
Attempt Attempt
Ao Tanaka's right-footed shot is saved.
56
Update Update
Goal! Dominic Calvert-Lewin scores, making it 3-0.
54
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri comes on for Josh Laurent.
52
Attempt Attempt
Noah Okafor takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Anton Stach takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Noah Okafor takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dominic Calvert-Lewin receives a yellow card.
47
Attempt Attempt
James Ward-Prowse has a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jaidon Anthony takes a shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Josh Laurent takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
James Justin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Anton Stach takes a left-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Ethan Ampadu's right-footed shot is blocked.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joe Rodon receives a yellow card.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Loum Tchaouna receives a yellow card.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bashir Humphreys receives a yellow card.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pascal Struijk receives a yellow card.
22
Attempt Attempt
Anton Stach's left-footed shot is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Ethan Ampadu takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Ao Tanaka takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Anton Stach takes a right-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Anton Stach scores with a left-footed shot.
1
Update Update
Dominic Calvert-Lewin attempts a header but misses.

CONCLUSION

Leeds United's 3-1 triumph over Burnley underscores their promotion credentials, turning slight possession disadvantage into a dominant scoreline. Leading 1-0 at halftime, they surged ahead post-interval with sharp finishing, exposing Burnley's defensive frailties despite the visitors' ball control. As the pre-identified stronger team, Leeds delivered a result with significant structural deviation yet stayed true to efficiency norms and market views. Free from red card interruptions, the contest highlighted Leeds' resilience and clinical edge. This outcome bolsters their campaign, pressuring rivals while Burnley reflects on missed chances in a competitive affair.

Leeds United vs Burnley preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Premier League, England View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ