Cádiz vs Las Palmas Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla Mon, 27 Apr - 6:30 PM
La Liga 2
Cádiz CAD
1 Winner 2
Las Palmas LPA
Full Time Mon, 27 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Joaquín González - 4'
Goal
|
Goal
Kirian Rodríguez - 71', 15'
Bojan Kovacevic 90+2' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

In a competitive La Liga encounter at the Estadio Ramón de Carranza, Cádiz fell 1-2 to Las Palmas. The first half ended level at 1-1, with both sides sharing the spoils amid balanced play. Cádiz held 48% possession against Las Palmas' 52%, reflecting a closely fought battle. The turning point came in the second half when Cádiz received a red card, leaving them with ten men and distorting the game's structure. Las Palmas, identified as the stronger team, capitalized on the numerical advantage to score the decisive goal and secure the victory. Despite the setback, Cádiz showed resilience but couldn't overcome the disadvantage. The outcome displayed minimal structural deviation, aligning with pre-match assessments of Las Palmas' edge.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation was minimal at 3.5% favoring Las Palmas.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable xG data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as true for the outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without xG statistics.
  • Event impact: Red card event to Cádiz impacted second half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion listed in second half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Sánchez López

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Mira García

1st Assistant

J. Hernández García

2nd Assistant

F. Expósito Jaramillo

4th Official

Cádiz S. González Soriano
S. González Soriano
VS
Las Palmas L. García Fernández
L. García Fernández
0.76
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: L
FC Andorra Rank: L
Córdoba Rank: L
Real Valladolid Rank: L
Ceuta Rank: L
Málaga Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leganés Rank: W
Málaga Rank: L
Huesca Rank: W
Granada Rank: W
SD Eibar Rank: L
Sporting Gijón Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 6 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cádiz
0.19%
Draw
3.33%
Away Las Palmas
96.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
12.72
28.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cádiz
Las Palmas
Power Score
12.72
28.86
League Position
18
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cádiz — Opponent-weighted form score
Las Palmas — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cádiz Las Palmas

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cádiz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Las Palmas

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cádiz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Las Palmas
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.73
29.62
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.62
25.73
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cádiz -0.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Las Palmas +0.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cádiz
Las Palmas
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cádiz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Las Palmas
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cádiz Las Palmas
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cádiz Las Palmas
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cádiz
Las Palmas
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cádiz
vs
Las Palmas
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cádiz Las Palmas
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cádiz 0.41
Las Palmas 0.50
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cádiz Las Palmas
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cádiz 0.07
Las Palmas 0.04
Cádiz
Las Palmas
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LPA had peak pressure around 63'.
  • CAD started the game with stronger pressure.
CAD Pressure LPA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LPA reached the top pressure at 63' (77.79).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cádiz CAD Home
14 matches
Las Palmas LPA Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
6
Draws
6
3
Losses
5
Goals
17
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
17
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:03:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
V. Aznar
Brazil
13 V. Aznar
I. Carcelén Valencia
Substitution
Spain
20 I. Carcelén Valencia
B. Kovačević
Serbia
14 B. Kovačević
I. Ortega
Spain
6 I. Ortega
M. Climent Plá
Spain
21 M. Climent Plá
J. Fernández Sáez de la Torre
Spain
11 J. Fernández Sáez de la Torre
J. González
Substitution
Spain
24 J. González
M. Diakité
Mali
5 M. Diakité
Antonio Cordero
Substitution
16 Antonio Cordero
?. García Pascual
Substitution
23 ?. García Pascual
L. Pérez Martínez
Substitution
Spain
7 L. Pérez Martínez
Pitch
D. Horkaš
Croatia
1 D. Horkaš
E. Clemente Maza
Spain
5 E. Clemente Maza
M. Marmol Medina
Spain
3 M. Marmol Medina
S. Barcia Laranxeira
Spain
6 S. Barcia Laranxeira
V. Álvarez Rozada
Spain
17 V. Álvarez Rozada
E. Pedrola Fortuny
Substitution
Spain
39 E. Pedrola Fortuny
L. Amatucci
Italy
16 L. Amatucci
K. Rodríguez Concepción
Substitution
Spain
20 K. Rodríguez Concepción
P. García Mejías
Substitution
Spain
22 P. García Mejías
M. Fuster Lázaro
Substitution
Spain
14 M. Fuster Lázaro
J. Rodríguez Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Rodríguez Ruiz

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 27, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla
Capacity :
20724
Attendance :
12605
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Rafael Sánchez López
Jesús Manuel Mira García
José Hernández García
Francisco Javier Expósito Jaramillo

Statistics

Possession
CAD
48%
LPA
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
11 Shots 14
27 Dangerous attacks 28
48 Possession 52
6 Corners 5
8 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 0
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

22 Throwins 11
12 Dribble Attempts 18
5 Successful Dribbles 9
1 Assists 0
9 Goal Kicks 9
5 Substitutions 5
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
59 Ball Safe 63
8 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

98 Attacks 83
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

80 Successful Passes Percentage 85
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
41 Long Passes 48
358 Successful Passes 426
9 Key Passes 8
447 Passes 502
12 Successful Long Passes 14

Defensive

34 Duels Won 41
15 Tackles 14
1 Saves 3
10 Interceptions 12

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 10
2 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

9 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Rafael Sánchez López

Starting XI ▼

13
Victor Aznar
Victor Aznar Goalkeeper
6.8
6
Iker Recio
Iker Recio Defender
6.73
14
Bojan Kovacevic
Bojan Kovacevic Defender
6.7
20
Iza Carcelén
Iza Carcelén Defender
6.94
34
Juan Díaz
Juan Díaz
Defender33'
6.74
21
Mario Climent
Mario Climent Defender
6.7
5
Moussa Diakité
Moussa Diakité Midfielder
6.8
11
Suso
Suso Midfielder
6.77
16
Antoñito Cordero
Antoñito Cordero Midfielder
6.67
19
José Antonio de la Rosa
José Antonio de la Rosa
Attacker76'
6.58
24
Joaquín González
Joaquín González Midfielder
6.65
8
Álex Fernández
Álex Fernández
Midfielder82'
6.71
7
Lucas Pérez
Lucas Pérez Attacker
6.73
37
Jerónimo Dómina
Jerónimo Dómina
Attacker82'
6.52
23
García Pascual
García Pascual Attacker
6.84
17
Dawda Camara
Dawda Camara
Attacker76'
6.65
Referee : Rafael Sánchez López

Starting XI ▼

1
Dinko Horkas
Dinko Horkas Goalkeeper
6.84
3
Mika Mármol
Mika Mármol Defender
7.05
5
Enrique Clemente
Enrique Clemente Defender
7.02
6
Sergio Barcia
Sergio Barcia Defender
7.04
17
Viti Rozada
Viti Rozada Defender
6.66
16
Lorenzo Amatucci
Lorenzo Amatucci Midfielder
7
20
Kirian Rodríguez
Kirian Rodríguez Midfielder
2
6.74
26
Iñaki González
Iñaki González
Midfielder90'
6.79
22
Ale García
Ale García Midfielder
6.83
8
Iván Gil
Iván Gil
Midfielder90'
6.73
39
Estanis Pedrola
Estanis Pedrola Midfielder
6.93
2
Marvin Park
Marvin Park
Defender57'
6.84
10
Jesé
Jesé Attacker
6.92
49
Iker Bravo
Iker Bravo
Attacker74'
6.63
14
Manu Fuster
Manu Fuster Attacker
7.19
24
Pejiño
Pejiño
Attacker90'
6.76

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Bojan Kovacevic
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
90+2'
90'
Event
Iván Gil → Ale García
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Pejiño → Manu Fuster
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Iñaki González → Kirian Rodríguez
9th Substitution
Event
Jerónimo Dómina → Lucas Pérez
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Álex Fernández → Joaquín González
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Dawda Camara → García Pascual
4th Substitution
76'
Event
José Antonio de la Rosa → Antoñito Cordero
5th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Iker Bravo → Jesé
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Kirian Rodríguez
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Iker Recio
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
61'
57'
Event
Marvin Park → Estanis Pedrola
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Juan Díaz → Iza Carcelén
1st Substitution
33'
15'
Event
Kirian Rodríguez
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Joaquín González
Header / 1st Goal
4'

CONCLUSION

Las Palmas demonstrated superiority by winning 2-1 away to Cádiz, converting a 1-1 halftime draw into victory through effective second-half management. The red card to Cádiz created a pivotal distortion, allowing the visitors to exploit their man advantage despite similar possession stats. As the stronger team, Las Palmas' success showed minimal deviation from expected patterns and alignment with efficiency metrics. This result reinforces their form, while Cádiz must address disciplinary issues to avoid future setbacks in tight contests.

Cádiz vs Las Palmas preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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