Alverca vs Arouca Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca Fri, 24 Apr - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Alverca Alverca
Versus
Arouca Arouca
KICKOFF : Fri, 24 Apr - 7:15 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Alverca host Arouca in Liga Portugal (Regular Season) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. Domestically, Alverca sit 10th in the table while Arouca are 11th. Power ranking favours Arouca by 0.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Alverca holds 10th position while Arouca sits 11th in the Liga Portugal table.
  • Form: Arouca boasts a stronger form score of 19.22 versus Alverca's 14.89.
  • Squad: Arouca possesses a 0.7-point power advantage over Alverca with scores of 21.96 to 21.29.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both Alverca and Arouca.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available for this matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set piece analysis shows low confidence with proxy metrics used for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG data is unavailable, relying on proxy indicators for both sides.
  • Market: Alverca 40.8% (Δ-0.1%) | Draw 29.7% (Δ+0.3%) | Arouca 29.5% (Δ-0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Alverca C. Dias de Castro
C. Dias de Castro
VS
Arouca V. Freire De Seabra
V. Freire De Seabra
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nacional Rank: L
Casa Pia Rank: W
Rio Ave Rank: W
Sporting CP Rank: L
Gil Vicente Rank: D
AVS Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estrela Amadora Rank: W
Sporting Braga Rank: L
Estoril Rank: W
Moreirense Rank: W
Benfica Rank: L
Famalicão Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Alverca
40.84%
Draw
29.7%
Away Arouca
29.46%

Movement

Changes since opening
Alverca
-0.1%
Draw
+0.28%
Arouca
-0.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.29
21.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Alverca
Arouca
Power Score
21.29
21.96
League Position
10
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Alverca — Opponent-weighted form score
Arouca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Alverca Arouca

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Alverca Alverca Home
1 matches
Arouca Arouca Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:02:34+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Ferreira
31 M. Ferreira
K. Marques Naves
4 K. Marques Naves
S. Gómez Solà
5 S. Gómez Solà
N. Meupiyou Menadjou
33 N. Meupiyou Menadjou
N. Zoubdi Touaizi
2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
R. Simião Gomes
26 R. Simião Gomes
L. Oliveira dos Santos
18 L. Oliveira dos Santos
I. James
12 I. James
L. Figueiredo dos Santos
20 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
S. Cordovil de Lima
91 S. Cordovil de Lima
Chiquinho
10 Chiquinho
I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
B. Kuipers
25 B. Kuipers
J. Fontán Mondragón
3 J. Fontán Mondragón
J. Silva
2 J. Silva
T. Sousa Esgaio
28 T. Sousa Esgaio
E. van Ee
22 E. van Ee
T. Fukui
21 T. Fukui
N. Djouahra
7 N. Djouahra
H. Lee
14 H. Lee
P. Gozalbez Gilabert
10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
I. Martínez Gonzálvez
17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 24, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Capacity
7705
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

31
Mateus Ferreira
Mateus Ferreira Goalkeeper
12
Isaac James
Isaac James Midfielder
2
Nabil Touaizi
Nabil Touaizi Midfielder
6.73
91
Sandro César Cordovil de Lima
Sandro César Cordovil de Lima Centre Forward
7.3
20
Figueiredo
Figueiredo Attacker
6.97
10
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira Attacker
6.97
4
Kaiky Marques Naves
Kaiky Marques Naves Right Back
6.93
5
Sergi Gómez Solà
Sergi Gómez Solà Centre Back
6.5
26
Rhaldney
Rhaldney Central Midfield
6.69
18
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos Central Midfield
7.09
33
Bastien Meupiyou
Bastien Meupiyou Left Back
6.56

Starting XI ▼

12
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Ignacio de Arruabarrena Goalkeeper
6.85
17
Iván Barbero
Iván Barbero Centre Forward
6.75
7
Naïs Djouahra
Naïs Djouahra Left Wing
6.84
22
Espen van Ee
Espen van Ee Defensive Midfield
6.79
10
Pablo Gozálbez
Pablo Gozálbez Right Wing
6.61
14
Hyun-ju Lee
Hyun-ju Lee Attacking Midfield
6.7
25
Bas Kuipers
Bas Kuipers Left Back
6.54
2
José Silva
José Silva Right Back
6.14
3
José Fontán
José Fontán Left Back
6.76
28
Tiago Esgaio
Tiago Esgaio Right Back
6.8
21
Taichi Fukui
Taichi Fukui Defensive Midfield
6.76

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Arouca holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Arouca a 0.7-point edge. External projection is Alverca 40.9%, draw 29.4%, and Arouca 29.6%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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