Estrela Amadora vs Porto Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio José Gomes Sun, 26 Apr - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Estrela Amadora Estrela Amadora
Versus
Porto POR
KICKOFF : Sun, 26 Apr - 5:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

At Estádio José Gomes, Estrela Amadora welcome league leaders Porto in a Liga Portugal regular season encounter from the 2025/2026 campaign. The hosts occupy 15th position, grappling with a modest power score of 13.93, while visitors Porto dominate with 39.3, forging a substantial 25.4-point advantage. Form metrics underscore the chasm: Estrela's 7.83 lags far behind Porto's potent 35.56. Projections mirror this imbalance, favoring Porto heavily at 68.9%, draw at 19.9%, and home success at 11.2%. Detailed insights into set pieces and efficiency elude us due to unavailable xG data and low-confidence proxies. Estrela must summon defensive resilience and rare attacking sparks to challenge the Dragons, who arrive unbeaten in recent outings and primed for another triumph. Porto's structural superiority positions them to dictate proceedings from the outset.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Estrela Amadora sit 15th in the Liga Portugal standings, contrasting sharply with Porto's commanding 1st place.
  • Form: Porto's form score reaches 35.56, towering over Estrela Amadora's mere 7.83.
  • Squad: Power ratings reveal Porto's squad strength at 39.3 against Estrela Amadora's 13.93.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency statistics remain unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable due to limited underlying data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data absent as xG unavailable with low confidence and proxy reliance.
  • xVariable: xVariable insights precluded by lack of xG-enabled statistics.
  • Market: Projection split: Estrela Amadora 11.2% (Δ+0%) | Draw 19.9% (Δ+0%) | Porto 68.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Estrela Amadora J. Rodrigues Carromeu
J. Rodrigues Carromeu
VS
Porto F. Farioli
F. Farioli
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.59
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arouca Rank: L
Sporting CP Rank: L
Nacional Rank: L
Casa Pia Rank: W
Rio Ave Rank: L
Gil Vicente Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tondela Rank: W
Estoril Rank: W
Famalicão Rank: D
Sporting Braga Rank: W
Moreirense Rank: W
Benfica Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Estrela Amadora
11.15%
Draw
19.91%
Away Porto
68.94%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
13.93
39.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Estrela Amadora
Porto
Power Score
13.93
39.3
League Position
15
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Estrela Amadora — Opponent-weighted form score
Porto — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Estrela Amadora Porto

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Estrela Amadora Estrela Amadora Home
13 matches
Porto POR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
9
1
Draws
1
9
Losses
3
Goals
10
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
10
-18
Goal Difference
+18
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T02:01:43+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio José Gomes
Capacity
9000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

40
Renan Ribeiro
Renan Ribeiro Goalkeeper
22
David Allen Grilo
David Allen Grilo Goalkeeper
13
Eduardo dos Santos Haesler
Eduardo dos Santos Haesler Goalkeeper
1
Diogo de Carvalho Pinto
Diogo de Carvalho Pinto Goalkeeper
5
Issiar Dramé
Issiar Dramé Defender
17
Jefferson Anilson Silva Encada
Jefferson Anilson Silva Encada Defender
14
Bernardo Schappo
Bernardo Schappo Defender
24
Bruno Alberto Langa
Bruno Alberto Langa Defender
30
Luan Patrick Wiedthauper
Luan Patrick Wiedthauper Defender
2
Yahya Kalley
Yahya Kalley Defender
3
Gabriel Miranda Rodrigues
Gabriel Miranda Rodrigues Defender
25
Stefan Leković
Stefan Leković Defender
21
Max Scholze
Max Scholze Defender
83
Otavio Manoel Galdino Fernandes
Otavio Manoel Galdino Fernandes Defender
6
Kevin Höög-Jansson
Kevin Höög-Jansson Midfielder
19
Paulo Daniel Valente Moreira
Paulo Daniel Valente Moreira Midfielder
28
Tom Moustier
Tom Moustier Midfielder
8
Robson Lucas Oliveira Botelho
Robson Lucas Oliveira Botelho Midfielder
63
Alexandre Mussolo Sola
Alexandre Mussolo Sola Midfielder
39
Eddy Gueladan Doué
Eddy Gueladan Doué Midfielder
9
Rodrigo Cunha Pereira de Pinho
Rodrigo Cunha Pereira de Pinho Attacker
11
Jovane Eduardo Borges Cabral
Jovane Eduardo Borges Cabral Attacker
10
Ianis Stoica
Ianis Stoica Attacker
26
Bilal Brahimi
Bilal Brahimi Attacker
20
Sydney van Hooijdonk
Sydney van Hooijdonk Attacker
77
Leandro Antonetti
Leandro Antonetti Attacker
99
Abraham Marcus
Abraham Marcus Attacker
18
Jorge Monteiro Meireles
Jorge Monteiro Meireles Attacker
70
Chilohem Chukwuma Onuoha
Chilohem Chukwuma Onuoha Attacker
17
Mathew Gbomadu
Mathew Gbomadu Attacker
80
Alisson Souza de Jesus
Alisson Souza de Jesus Attacker

Squad ▼

14
Cláudio Pires Morais Ramos
Cláudio Pires Morais Ramos Goalkeeper
24
João Paulo Santos da Costa
João Paulo Santos da Costa Goalkeeper
99
Diogo Meireles Costa
Diogo Meireles Costa Goalkeeper
3
Thiago Emiliano da Silva
Thiago Emiliano da Silva Defender
5
Jan Bednarek
Jan Bednarek Defender
12
Zaidu Sanusi
Zaidu Sanusi Defender
4
Jakub Piotr Kiwior
Jakub Piotr Kiwior Defender
18
Nehuén Pérez
Nehuén Pérez Defender
74
Francisco Sampaio Moura
Francisco Sampaio Moura Defender
20
Alberto Oliveira Baio
Alberto Oliveira Baio Defender
52
Martim Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
Martim Moreira Moutinho Fernandes Defender
21
Dominik Prpić
Dominik Prpić Defender
42
Seko Fofana
Seko Fofana Midfielder
13
Pablo Paulino Rosario
Pablo Paulino Rosario Midfielder
10
Gabriel Veiga Novas
Gabriel Veiga Novas Midfielder
22
Alan Varela
Alan Varela Midfielder
8
Victor Froholdt
Victor Froholdt Midfielder
86
Rodrigo Mora Carvalho
Rodrigo Mora Carvalho Midfielder
26
Luuk de Jong
Luuk de Jong Attacker
75
Yann Karamoh
Yann Karamoh Attacker
11
Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa
Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa Attacker
29
Terem Igobor Moffi
Terem Igobor Moffi Attacker
17
Borja Sainz Eguskiza
Borja Sainz Eguskiza Attacker
9
Samuel Omorodion Aghehowa
Samuel Omorodion Aghehowa Attacker
27
Deniz Gül
Deniz Gül Attacker
77
Oskar Pietuszewski
Oskar Pietuszewski Attacker
7
William Gomes Carvalho Santos
William Gomes Carvalho Santos Attacker

CONCLUSION

Porto's overwhelming advantages in power score, form, and league position cement their status as overwhelming favorites over Estrela Amadora. The 25.4-point edge and top-table perch signal a mismatch at Estádio José Gomes. Hosts' 15th-place woes and inferior 7.83 form expose vulnerabilities against the Dragons' relentless attack. Absent detailed set piece or efficiency breakdowns, raw metrics point to visitor control and likely victory. Estrela requires an extraordinary collective effort and opportunistic moments to defy projections assigning them just 11.2% chance. Porto, chasing supremacy, should navigate this routine assignment with authority and poise.

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