Excelsior vs FC Utrecht Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion Sun, 26 Apr - 10:15 AM
Eredivisie
Excelsior EXC
Versus
FC Utrecht UTR
KICKOFF : Sun, 26 Apr - 10:15 AM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the Eredivisie 2025/2026 regular season, Excelsior welcomes FC Utrecht to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion for a matchup steeped in disparity. Excelsior, rooted in 15th place, confronts a seventh-placed Utrecht side with a commanding 17.1-point power advantage—30.67 to 13.53—highlighting the visitors' superior overall structure. Form scores further underscore this gap, with Utrecht's robust 31.56 eclipsing Excelsior's faltering 3.28, signaling sustained momentum for the away team. League standings reinforce Utrecht's edge, positioning them as protagonists in this contest. While set-piece and efficiency insights rely on low-confidence proxies, the raw power and form metrics paint a clear picture of Utrecht's dominance. Excelsior's home turf offers slim hope for an upset, but the data tilts decisively toward the visitors.

TL;DR

  • Structural: FC Utrecht possesses a 17.1-point power advantage over Excelsior, with scores of 30.67 versus 13.53.
  • Form: Excelsior's form score is 3.28, significantly trailing FC Utrecht's 31.56.
  • Squad: League positions show Excelsior in 15th and FC Utrecht in 7th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not detailed in available analyses.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance uses low-confidence proxy data for Excelsior and FC Utrecht.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables are unavailable due to lack of underlying data.
  • Market: Projection split: Excelsior 31.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.9% (Δ+0%) | FC Utrecht 42% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Excelsior R. den Uil
R. den Uil
VS
FC Utrecht R. Jans
R. Jans
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
PEC Zwolle Rank: D
NEC Nijmegen Rank: L
Heracles Almelo Rank: D
Feyenoord Rank: L
SC Heerenveen Rank: L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Telstar Rank: W
PSV Rank: L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: W
FC Twente Rank: W
Heracles Almelo Rank: D
AZ Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 7 - 14
14
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Excelsior
31.08%
Draw
26.91%
Away FC Utrecht
42.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
13.53
30.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Excelsior
FC Utrecht
Power Score
13.53
30.67
League Position
15
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Excelsior — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Utrecht — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Excelsior FC Utrecht

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Excelsior EXC Home
23 matches
FC Utrecht UTR Away
Match Record
2
Wins
14
7
Draws
7
14
Losses
2
Goals
26
Goals Scored
45
45
Goals Conceded
26
-19
Goal Difference
+19
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:10:56+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
S. van Gassel
1 S. van Gassel
I. Bronkhorst
2 I. Bronkhorst
R. Meissen
3 R. Meissen
C. Widell
4 C. Widell
L. Schouten
14 L. Schouten
A. Zagre
12 A. Zagre
D. Sanches Fernandes
30 D. Sanches Fernandes
I. Yegoian
23 I. Yegoian
L. Hartjes
20 L. Hartjes
G. de Regt
11 G. de Regt
N. Naujoks
10 N. Naujoks
V. Barkas
1 V. Barkas
S. Elkarouani
16 S. Elkarouani
M. van der Hoorn
3 M. van der Hoorn
M. Didden
40 M. Didden
N. Vesterlund
23 N. Vesterlund
G. Zechiël
21 G. Zechiël
A. Engwanda
27 A. Engwanda
Y. Cathline
10 Y. Cathline
D. de Wit
20 D. de Wit
Ángel Galiot
77 Ángel Galiot
A. Stepanov
18 A. Stepanov

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 10:15 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
Capacity
4500
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Stijn van Gassel
Stijn van Gassel Goalkeeper
7.18
11
Gyan de Regt
Gyan de Regt Midfielder
6.8
30
Derensili Sanches Fernandes
Derensili Sanches Fernandes Midfielder
6.74
10
Noah Naujoks
Noah Naujoks Centre Forward
6.83
2
Ilias Bronkhorst
Ilias Bronkhorst Right Back
6.81
20
Lennard Hartjes
Lennard Hartjes Central Midfield
6.71
23
Irakli Yegoian
Irakli Yegoian Central Midfield
6.99
3
Rick Meissen
Rick Meissen Right Back
6.76
4
Casper Widell
Casper Widell Centre Back
6.85
14
Lewis Schouten
Lewis Schouten Left Back
6.65
12
Arthur Zagré
Arthur Zagré Left Back
6.74

Starting XI ▼

1
Vasilios Barkas
Vasilios Barkas Goalkeeper
7.05
18
Artem Stepanov
Artem Stepanov Centre Forward
6.8
77
Ángel Alarcón
Ángel Alarcón Right Wing
7.13
3
Mike van der Hoorn
Mike van der Hoorn Left Back
6.97
10
Yoann Cathline
Yoann Cathline Left Wing
6.94
40
Matisse Didden
Matisse Didden Right Back
6.92
16
Souffian El Karouani
Souffian El Karouani Left Back
7.42
20
Dani de Wit
Dani de Wit Attacking Midfield
6.96
21
Gjivai Zechiël
Gjivai Zechiël Defensive Midfield
7.08
23
Niklas Vesterlund
Niklas Vesterlund Right Back
6.56
27
Alonzo Engwanda
Alonzo Engwanda Defensive Midfield
6.84

CONCLUSION

FC Utrecht arrives with multifaceted superiority, from a substantial power edge and elite form to a higher league standing, making them the standout favorites at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Excelsior's 15th-place struggles and weak form score amplify the challenge, especially without robust efficiency or set-piece edges. While home advantage could spark resilience, Utrecht's 17.1-point lead and 42% projection share suggest control in transitions and open play. Expect the visitors to capitalize on their strengths for a likely victory, barring an Excelsior miracle.

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