Mechelen vs Sint-Truiden Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne Sun, 26 Apr - 2:00 PM
Pro League
Mechelen MEC
1 Winner 4
Sint-Truiden SIT
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 5 Championship Round
Bouke Boersma - 26'
Goal
|
Goal
Ryotaro Ito - 75'
Ilias Sebaoui - 63'
Ryan Merlen - 49'
Joedrick Pupe - 44'

CONTEXT

Mechelen faced Sint-Truiden at home in a league match that concluded with a 1-4 defeat for the hosts. The halftime score stood at 1-1, reflecting an even contest in the opening period where Sint-Truiden enjoyed 58% possession compared to Mechelen's 42%. Post-interval, Sint-Truiden capitalized decisively, adding three goals without reply to secure victory. No red cards were issued, ensuring uninterrupted play throughout. Identified pre-match as the stronger team, Sint-Truiden delivered a performance marked by a significant 54.7% structural deviation, yet the outcome proved consistent with market alignments. Possession dominance translated into efficient goal output for the visitors, exposing Mechelen's second-half vulnerabilities. This result underscores Sint-Truiden's control and clinical finishing.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sint-Truiden recorded a significant 54.7% structural deviation in performance.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from provided data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or major events altered proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Visser

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Nijssen

2nd Assistant

N. Laforge

4th Official

R. Wyns

1st Assistant

Mechelen F. Vanderbiest
F. Vanderbiest
VS
Sint-Truiden W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
1.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.87
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Club Brugge Rank: L
Anderlecht Rank: L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
Gent Rank: D
Club Brugge Rank: L
Anderlecht Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Anderlecht Rank: W
Gent Rank: D
Club Brugge Rank: L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
Genk Rank: L
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 6 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mechelen
28.6%
Draw
26.11%
Away Sint-Truiden
45.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.64
21.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mechelen
Sint-Truiden
Power Score
16.64
21.1
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mechelen — Opponent-weighted form score
Sint-Truiden — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mechelen Sint-Truiden

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mechelen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sint-Truiden

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mechelen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sint-Truiden
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.14
31.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.03
22.14
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mechelen -0.84 Efficiency Index
vs
Sint-Truiden +0.84 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mechelen
Sint-Truiden
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mechelen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sint-Truiden
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mechelen Sint-Truiden
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mechelen Sint-Truiden
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mechelen
Sint-Truiden
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mechelen
vs
Sint-Truiden
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mechelen Sint-Truiden
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mechelen 0.31
Sint-Truiden 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mechelen Sint-Truiden
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mechelen 0.10
Sint-Truiden 0.04
Mechelen
Sint-Truiden
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SIT had peak pressure around 74'.
  • SIT started the game with stronger pressure.
MEC Pressure SIT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SIT reached the top pressure at 74' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mechelen MEC Home
36 matches
Sint-Truiden SIT Away
Match Record
12
Wins
18
6
Draws
6
18
Losses
12
Goals
40
Goals Scored
51
51
Goals Conceded
40
-11
Goal Difference
+11

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:05:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
I. Mirás Blanco
Spain
13 I. Mirás Blanco
R. Halhal
Morocco
2 R. Halhal
M. Konate
Guinea
8 M. Konate
J. Martinez Marsà
Spain
3 J. Martinez Marsà
B. Antonio
Zimbabwe
38 B. Antonio
F. Hammar
Sweden
6 F. Hammar
M. Servais
Belgium
17 M. Servais
T. Koudou
Substitution
France
7 T. Koudou
K. Mrabti
Substitution
Sweden
19 K. Mrabti
B. Boersma
Substitution
28 B. Boersma
M. van Brederode
Netherlands
9 M. van Brederode
Pitch
L. Kokubo
Japan
16 L. Kokubo
J. Pupe
Substitution
Belgium
23 J. Pupe
V. Musliu
Macedonia
26 V. Musliu
S. Taniguchi
Japan
5 S. Taniguchi
R. Vanwesemael
Belgium
60 R. Vanwesemael
R. Yamamoto
Japan
6 R. Yamamoto
A. Sissako
Substitution
France
8 A. Sissako
K. Matsuzawa
Substitution
Japan
38 K. Matsuzawa
R. Ito
Substitution
Japan
13 R. Ito
I. Sebaoui
Substitution
Morocco
10 I. Sebaoui
K. Goto
Japan
42 K. Goto

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 5 · Championship Round
Stadium :
AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
Capacity :
16672
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Lawrence Visser
Thibaud Nijssen
Nicolas Laforge
Ruben Wyns

Statistics

Possession
MEC
45%
SIT
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
2 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 13
26 Dangerous attacks 40
42 Possession 58
4 Corners 7
13 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
23 Throwins 18
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
99 Ball Safe 85
5 Goal Attempts 14
10 Goal Kicks 10
15 Dribble Attempts 10
8 Successful Dribbles 2
1 Assists 4
1 Injuries 1
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

27 Attacks 42
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

55 Long Passes 44
76 Successful Passes Percentage 83
339 Passes 458
259 Successful Passes 382
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
24 Successful Long Passes 23
8 Key Passes 15

Defensive

44 Duels Won 43
5 Saves 1
17 Tackles 17
7 Interceptions 7

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 7
13 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
11 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Lawrence Visser

Starting XI ▼

13
Nacho Miras
Nacho Miras Goalkeeper
7.19
2
Redouane Halhal
Redouane Halhal Defender
6.92
3
José Marsà
José Marsà Defender
6.72
8
Mory Konaté
Mory Konaté Defender
6.79
6
Fredrik Hammar
Fredrik Hammar Midfielder
7.03
7
Thérence Koudou
Thérence Koudou Midfielder
6.74
27
Keano Vanrafelghem
Keano Vanrafelghem
Attacker73'
6.7
17
Mathis Servais
Mathis Servais Midfielder
6.99
38
Bill Antonio
Bill Antonio Midfielder
6.52
9
Myron van Brederode
Myron van Brederode Attacker
7.13
19
Kerim Mrabti
Kerim Mrabti Attacker
6.88
11
Bilal Bafdili
Bilal Bafdili
Midfielder86'
6.7
28
Bouke Boersma
Bouke Boersma Attacker
6.68
14
Damir Milanovic
Damir Milanovic
Attacker73'
6.68
Referee : Lawrence Visser

Starting XI ▼

16
Leo Kokubo
Leo Kokubo Goalkeeper
7.01
5
Shogo Taniguchi
Shogo Taniguchi Defender
6.94
23
Joedrick Pupe
Joedrick Pupe Defender
6.6
18
Simen Juklerød
Simen Juklerød
Defender73'
6.73
26
Visar Musliu
Visar Musliu Defender
7.06
60
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael Defender
6.76
6
Rihito Yamamoto
Rihito Yamamoto Midfielder
7.17
8
Abdoulaye Sissako
Abdoulaye Sissako Midfielder
6.96
22
Wolke Janssens
Wolke Janssens
Defender88'
6.59
10
Ilias Sebaoui
Ilias Sebaoui Midfielder
6.88
99
Shion Shinkawa
Shion Shinkawa
Attacker83'
6.57
13
Ryotaro Ito
Ryotaro Ito Midfielder
7.43
4
Loïc Mbe Soh
Loïc Mbe Soh
Defender84'
6.98
38
Kaito Matsuzawa
Kaito Matsuzawa Midfielder
6.71
14
Ryan Merlen
Ryan Merlen
Midfielder46'
6.62
42
Keisuke Goto
Keisuke Goto Attacker
6.93

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
3rd Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Fredrik Hammar
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+2'
88'
Event
Wolke Janssens → Abdoulaye Sissako
8th Substitution
Event
Bilal Bafdili → Kerim Mrabti
7th Substitution
86'
84'
Event
Loïc Mbe Soh → Ryotaro Ito
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Shion Shinkawa → Ilias Sebaoui
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Ryotaro Ito
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Damir Milanovic → Bouke Boersma
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Keano Vanrafelghem → Thérence Koudou
4th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Simen Juklerød → Joedrick Pupe
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Ilias Sebaoui
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
49'
Event
Ryan Merlen
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Abdoulaye Sissako
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Ryan Merlen → Kaito Matsuzawa
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Joedrick Pupe
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Bouke Boersma
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
26'

CONCLUSION

Sint-Truiden's 4-1 win over Mechelen demonstrated their possession superiority and second-half ruthlessness after a 1-1 halftime draw. With 58% ball control, they efficiently converted chances while Mechelen faltered defensively. The significant 54.7% structural deviation for Sint-Truiden highlights outperformance against norms, aligning with their pre-designated strength and market views. Absence of red cards or adjustments preserved natural game flow. This victory solidifies Sint-Truiden's standing, exposing Mechelen's inability to sustain parity post-interval.

Mechelen vs Sint-Truiden preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Pro League, Belgium View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Dan A

Dan A creates clear football match previews built around team form, performance trends, and practical pre-match insights.