Chelsea vs Leeds United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Wembley Stadium Sun, 26 Apr - 2:00 PM
FA Cup
Chelsea CHE
Versus
Leeds United LEE
KICKOFF : Sun, 26 Apr - 2:00 PM
Semi Finals

CONTEXT

Chelsea host Leeds United in FA Cup (Semi-finals) at Wembley Stadium. Power ranking favours Leeds United by 5.3 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Leeds United possess a 5.3-point power advantage over Chelsea with a 27.87 score to 22.6.
  • Form: Chelsea lead in form with a 50 score against Leeds United's 33.33.
  • Squad: No squad or injury updates available for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data not provided.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance unavailable due to low-confidence proxy data without xG.
  • xVariable: xG-based variables unavailable for analysis.
  • Market: Chelsea 54% (Δ-0.7%) | Draw 24.8% (Δ+0.5%) | Leeds United 21.2% (Δ+0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Chelsea L. Rosenior
L. Rosenior
VS
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Port Vale Rank: W
Wrexham Rank: W
Hull City Rank: W
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Ham United Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: W
Birmingham City Rank: D
Derby County Rank: W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 5 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Chelsea
54%
Draw
24.84%
Away Leeds United
21.15%

Movement

Changes since opening
Chelsea
-0.72%
Draw
+0.53%
Leeds United
+0.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.6
27.87
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Chelsea
Leeds United
Power Score
22.6
27.87
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Chelsea — Opponent-weighted form score
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Chelsea Leeds United

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Chelsea CHE Home
18 matches
Leeds United LEE Away
Match Record
9
Wins
4
5
Draws
5
4
Losses
9
Goals
29
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
29
+7
Goal Difference
-7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:13:28+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 FA Cup, England · Semi Finals
Stadium
Wembley Stadium
Capacity
90000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jarred Gillett
Neil Davies
Thomas Kirk
Simon Long

Squad

Referee : Jarred Gillett

Squad ▼

1
Robert Lynch Sanchez
Robert Lynch Sanchez Goalkeeper
—
James Hillson
James Hillson Goalkeeper
12
Filip Jörgensen
Filip Jörgensen Goalkeeper
44
Gabriel Slonina
Gabriel Slonina Goalkeeper
28
Teddy Sharman-Lowe
Teddy Sharman-Lowe Goalkeeper
4
Oluwatosin Adarabioyo
Oluwatosin Adarabioyo Defender
3
Marc Cucurella Saseta
Marc Cucurella Saseta Defender
23
Trevoh Chalobah
Trevoh Chalobah Defender
24
Reece James
Reece James Defender
5
Benoît Badiashile Mukinayi
Benoît Badiashile Mukinayi Defender
29
Wesley Fofana
Wesley Fofana Defender
6
Levi Samuels Colwill
Levi Samuels Colwill Defender
27
Malo Gusto
Malo Gusto Defender
—
Caleb Ryan Wiley
Caleb Ryan Wiley Defender
19
Mamadou Sarr
Mamadou Sarr Defender
21
Jorrel Hato
Jorrel Hato Defender
34
Joshua Kofi Acheampong
Joshua Kofi Acheampong Defender
10
Cole Palmer
Cole Palmer Midfielder
8
Enzo Jeremías Fernández
Enzo Jeremías Fernández Midfielder
25
Moisés Isaac Caicedo Corozo
Moisés Isaac Caicedo Corozo Midfielder
45
Roméo Lavia
Roméo Lavia Midfielder
17
Andrey Nascimento dos Santos
Andrey Nascimento dos Santos Midfielder
14
Dario Cassia Luis Essugo
Dario Cassia Luis Essugo Midfielder
7
Pedro Lomba Neto
Pedro Lomba Neto Attacker
—
Mykhailo Mudryk
Mykhailo Mudryk Attacker
9
Liam Delap
Liam Delap Attacker
20
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus Attacker
49
Alejandro Garnacho Ferreyra
Alejandro Garnacho Ferreyra Attacker
11
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens Attacker
38
Marc Guiu Paz
Marc Guiu Paz Attacker
41
Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves Attacker
Referee : Jarred Gillett

Squad ▼

26
Karl Darlow
Karl Darlow Goalkeeper
21
Alex Cairns
Alex Cairns Goalkeeper
16
Illan Meslier
Illan Meslier Goalkeeper
1
Lucas Estella Perri
Lucas Estella Perri Goalkeeper
25
Sam Byram
Sam Byram Defender
24
James Justin
James Justin Defender
5
Pascal Struijk
Pascal Struijk Defender
3
Gabriel Gudmundsson
Gabriel Gudmundsson Defender
6
Joe Rodon
Joe Rodon Defender
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle Defender
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Defender
23
Sebastiaan Bornauw
Sebastiaan Bornauw Defender
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu Midfielder
8
Sean Longstaff
Sean Longstaff Midfielder
22
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka Midfielder
18
Anton Stach
Anton Stach Midfielder
44
Ilia Gruev
Ilia Gruev Midfielder
11
Brenden Aaronson
Brenden Aaronson Midfielder
40
Facundo Valentín Buonanotte
Facundo Valentín Buonanotte Midfielder
50
Charlie Crew
Charlie Crew Midfielder
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Attacker
7
Daniel James
Daniel James Attacker
10
Joël Piroe
Joël Piroe Attacker
14
Lukas Nmecha
Lukas Nmecha Attacker
19
Noah Okafor
Noah Okafor Attacker
29
Degnand Wilfried Gnonto
Degnand Wilfried Gnonto Attacker

CONCLUSION

This FA Cup semi-final pits Leeds' structural superiority against Chelsea's form edge in Wembley's cauldron. Leeds' higher power rating suggests resilience, but Chelsea's 50 form score signals peaking at the right moment. With sparse advanced stats, the contest boils down to tactical nous and big-game mentality. Projections nudge Chelsea ahead, yet Leeds' underlying strength keeps it tight. Expect end-to-end action, where Chelsea's momentum might just prevail in a narrow victory, propelling them towards cup glory.

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