Granada vs Almería Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain

Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes Sun, 26 Apr - 2:15 PM

La Liga 2

Granada GRA

Almería ALM

Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 2:15 PM

Round 37 Regular Season

Pablo Sáenz - 90+7'

Pedro Alemañ Serna - 11'

Miguel de la Fuente - 68'

Sergio Arribas - 38' (P), 18', 14'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Granada 2–4 Almería. The result saw Almería take the points. Almería showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Structural deviation measured minimal at 2.4% favoring Almería.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Market alignment held true for the outcome.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events altered the match flow.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in dynamics.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

S. Ais Reig

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Esteve Valenzuela

1st Assistant

R. Landrove Lago

2nd Assistant

G. Conejero Sánchez

4th Official

J. Rojo Martín

J. Ferrer Sicilia

1.36

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.85

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

3 - 4 - 6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Granada

0.49%

Draw

1.91%

Almería

97.6%

Team Power Ranking

23.24

31.45

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Granada

Almería

Power Score

23.24

31.45

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Granada — Opponent-weighted form score

Almería — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Granada Almería

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Granada

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Almería

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Granada ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Almería

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

23.10

42.00

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

42.00

23.10

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Granada -1.89 Efficiency Index

Almería +1.89 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Granada

Almería

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Granada ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Almería

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Granada Almería

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Granada Almería

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Granada

Almería

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Granada

Almería

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Granada Almería

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Granada Almería

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Granada

Almería

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

ALM had peak pressure around 50'.
GRA started the game with stronger pressure.

GRA Pressure ALM Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: ALM reached the top pressure at 50' (76.36).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Granada GRA Home

13 matches

Almería ALM Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-8

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:05:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 L. Zidane

18 Á. Lemos Collazo

28 O. Naasei Oppong

24 L. Ntambue Kayumba

3 D. Hormigo Iturralde

22 B. Diallo

8 P. Serra

20 S. Ruiz Alonso

4 R. Alcaraz Jiménez

9 G. Petit Abad

11 J. Arnáiz Díaz

1 A. Fernández Moreno

3 A. Muñoz Miguel

18 F. Bonini

5 R. Ely

16 M. Ruiz

17 D. Lopy

29 S. Dzodic

23 A. Embarba Blázquez

11 S. Arribas Calvo

12 L. Carrilho Baptistão

24 M. De la Fuente Escudero

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 26, 2026, 02:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 37 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Capacity :

19189

Attendance :

15939

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Saúl Ais Reig

Ricard Esteve Valenzuela

Ricardo Landrove Lago

Guillermo Conejero Sánchez

Statistics

Possession

GRA

49%

ALM

51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 4

1 Big Chances Created 5

10 Shots 19

31 Dangerous attacks 40

50 Possession 50

4 Corners 3

14 Free kicks 10

2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Injuries 1

6 Substitutions 6

1 Hit Woodwork 0

4 Successful Dribbles 7

0 Penalties 1

44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44

8 Goal Kicks 7

9 Dribble Attempts 16

8 Goal Attempts 16

81 Ball Safe 77

2 Assists 2

31 Throwins 14

Attacking

93 Attacks 86

1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

268 Successful Passes 267

15 Successful Long Passes 26

31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

48 Long Passes 62

342 Passes 345

78 Successful Passes Percentage 77

7 Key Passes 12

Defensive

43 Duels Won 44

6 Interceptions 11

16 Tackles 12

6 Saves 4

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 5

19 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

4 Offsides 1

11 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Saúl Ais Reig

Manager ▼

J. Rojo Martín Coach

Starting XI ▼

Luca Zidane Goalkeeper

7.01

Ander Astralaga

Goalkeeper90'

6.72

Diego Hormigo Defender

6.27

Izan González

Midfielder46'

6.88

Álvaro Lemos Defender

6.38

Pau Casadesús

Defender69'

6.59

Baïla Diallo Defender

6.65

Sergio Rodelas

Attacker83'

6.67

Loïc Williams Defender

6.78

Oscar Naasei Oppong Defender

6.61

Rubén Alcaraz Midfielder

6.91

Pedro Alemañ Serna Midfielder

6.88

Sergio Ruiz Midfielder

6.82

Pablo Sáenz

Attacker46'

6.85

Gonzalo Petit Attacker

6.74

Baba Diocou

Attacker69'

6.73

José Manuel Arnáiz Attacker

6.95

Substitutes ▼

Izan González

Midfielder46'

6.88

Pablo Sáenz

Attacker46'

6.85

Pau Casadesús

Defender69'

6.59

Baba Diocou

Attacker69'

6.73

Sergio Rodelas

Attacker83'

6.67

Ander Astralaga

Goalkeeper90'

6.72

Bench ▼

Bambo Diaby Defender

6.5

Juanjo Flores Defender

6.53

Manu Trigueros Midfielder

6.72

Luka Gagnidze Midfielder

6.56

Mohamed Bouldini Attacker

6.63

Referee : Saúl Ais Reig