Hibernian vs Hearts Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Easter Road Stadium Sun, 26 Apr - 3:30 PM
Premiership
Hibernian HIB
1 Winner 2
Hearts Hearts
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 3:30 PM
Round 34 2nd Phase
Martin Boyle - 7'
Goal
|
Goal
Blair Spittal - 86'
Warren O'Hora - 65' (Own Goal)
Raphael Sallinger 14' Red Card
Felix Passlack 48' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Hibernian faced Hearts in an intense Edinburgh derby, falling 1-2 despite leading 1-0 at halftime. The home side struck first but crumbled in the second half after two red cards left them with nine men. Hearts dominated with 76% possession compared to Hibernian's mere 24%, showcasing superior control and pressing the advantage relentlessly. The visitors, identified as the stronger team pre-match, overturned the deficit efficiently once numerical superiority was gained. Hibernian's early promise evaporated under the pressure of dismissals, allowing Hearts to secure a deserved victory. This outcome highlighted the impact of disciplinary lapses in a fiercely contested local rivalry, where resilience met overwhelming dominance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation was minimal at 2.6% in favor of Hearts.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true with the final outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: Two red cards to Hibernian decisively altered match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion dominated second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Robertson

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Steven

4th Official

R. MacLeod

1st Assistant

D. Roome

2nd Assistant

Hibernian D. Gray
D. Gray
VS
Hearts D. McInnes
D. McInnes
1.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aberdeen Rank: L
Kilmarnock Rank: W
Motherwell Rank: D
Livingston Rank: D
Dundee Rank: D
Celtic Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell Rank: W
Livingston Rank: D
Dundee Rank: W
Kilmarnock Rank: L
Aberdeen Rank: W
Falkirk Rank: W
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 20 - 25
25

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hibernian
0.19%
Draw
2.38%
Away Hearts
97.43%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hibernian
0%
Draw
-1.32%
Hearts
+1.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30.04
37.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hibernian
Hearts
Power Score
30.04
37.17
League Position
5
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hibernian — Opponent-weighted form score
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hibernian Hearts

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hibernian

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hibernian ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hearts
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.54
36.51
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.51
18.54
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hibernian -1.77 Efficiency Index
vs
Hearts +1.77 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hibernian
Hearts
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hibernian ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hearts
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hibernian Hearts
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hibernian Hearts
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hibernian
Hearts
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hibernian
vs
Hearts
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hibernian Hearts
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hibernian 0.44
Hearts 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hibernian Hearts
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hibernian 0.02
Hearts 0.11
Hibernian
Hearts
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Hearts had peak pressure around 62'.
  • HIB started the game with stronger pressure.
HIB Pressure Hearts Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Hearts reached the top pressure at 62' (94.23).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 60 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hibernian HIB Home
60 matches
Hearts Hearts Away
Match Record
15
Wins
25
20
Draws
20
25
Losses
15
Goals
52
Goals Scored
74
74
Goals Conceded
52
-22
Goal Difference
+22

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:07:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
R. Sallinger
Austria
1 R. Sallinger
W. O'Hora
Republic of Ireland
5 W. O'Hora
R. Bushiri
Belgium
33 R. Bushiri
J. Obita
England
21 J. Obita
F. Passlack
Germany
25 F. Passlack
M. Changa Chaiwa
Zambia
14 M. Changa Chaiwa
D. Barlaser
Substitution
England
22 D. Barlaser
N. Cadden
Substitution
Scotland
19 N. Cadden
J. McGrath
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
17 J. McGrath
M. Boyle
Substitution
Australia
10 M. Boyle
O. Elding
Substitution
England
47 O. Elding
Pitch
A. Schwolow
Germany
25 A. Schwolow
S. Findlay
Scotland
19 S. Findlay
C. Halkett
Scotland
4 C. Halkett
M. Steinwender
Substitution
Austria
15 M. Steinwender
S. Kingsley
Substitution
Scotland
3 S. Kingsley
B. Baningime
DR Congo
6 B. Baningime
M. Leonard
Scotland
49 M. Leonard
J. Altena
Substitution
Netherlands
23 J. Altena
L. Shankland
Scotland
9 L. Shankland
P. Kabore
Substitution
Burkina Faso
11 P. Kabore
C. Soares Braga
Substitution
Portugal
10 C. Soares Braga

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 34 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Easter Road Stadium
Capacity :
20421
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Colin Steven
Ross MacLeod
Don Robertson
D. Roome

Statistics

Possession
HIB
31%
Hearts
69%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 6
9 Dangerous attacks 95
24 Possession 76
0 Corners 11
17 Free kicks 8
5 Yellow Cards 3
2 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Injuries 0
4 Goal Attempts 14
78 Ball Safe 62
5 Successful Dribbles 4
10 Dribble Attempts 17
1 Assists 1
14 Throwins 27
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 24
11 Goal Kicks 4
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 2

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
64 Attacks 138

Possession

14 Successful Long Passes 19
76 Successful Passes 413
79 Long Passes 42
18 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
43 Successful Passes Percentage 81
3 Key Passes 20
175 Passes 507

Defensive

65 Duels Won 57
21 Tackles 10
5 Interceptions 6
5 Saves 0

Build-up

2 Total Crosses 47
1 Accurate Crosses 14

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
8 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

1
Raphael Sallinger
Raphael Sallinger Goalkeeper
6.98
5
Warren O'Hora
Warren O'Hora Defender
6.97
21
Jordan Obita
Jordan Obita Defender
6.75
33
Rocky Bushiri
Rocky Bushiri Defender
6.87
14
Miguel Chaiwa
Miguel Chaiwa Midfielder
6.76
19
Nicky Cadden
Nicky Cadden Midfielder
6.98
13
Jordan Smith
Jordan Smith
Goalkeeper15'
6.76
22
Dan Barlaser
Dan Barlaser Midfielder
6.89
11
Joe Newell
Joe Newell
Midfielder64'
6.63
25
Felix Passlack
Felix Passlack Midfielder
7.05
10
Martin Boyle
Martin Boyle Attacker
6.71
77
Ante Suto
Ante Suto
Attacker64'
6.85
17
Jamie McGrath
Jamie McGrath Attacker
7.3
32
Josh Campbell
Josh Campbell
Midfielder64'
6.68
47
Owen Elding
Owen Elding Attacker
6.99
27
Kanayo Megwa
Kanayo Megwa
Defender50'
6.73
Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
6.78
4
Craig Halkett
Craig Halkett Defender
7.12
15
Michael Steinwender
Michael Steinwender Defender
6.7
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal
Midfielder58'
6.86
19
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay Defender
7.12
3
Stephen Kingsley
Stephen Kingsley Midfielder
6.9
5
Jamie McCart
Jamie McCart
Defender90'
6.77
6
Beni Baningime
Beni Baningime Midfielder
6.7
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena Midfielder
6.62
29
Sabah Kerjota
Sabah Kerjota
Attacker46'
6.63
49
Marc Leonard
Marc Leonard Midfielder
7.39
9
Lawrence Shankland
Lawrence Shankland Attacker
7.23
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Attacker
7.02
99
Islam Chesnokov
Islam Chesnokov
Midfielder90+3'
6.46
11
Pierre Landry Kabore
Pierre Landry Kabore Attacker
6.88
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis
Attacker58'
7.02

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Islam Chesnokov → Cláudio Braga
10th Substitution
Event
Rocky Bushiri
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+2'
90+2'
Event
Marc Leonard
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Lawrence Shankland
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Joe Newell
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+1'
90'
Event
Jamie McCart → Stephen Kingsley
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Blair Spittal
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
65'
Event
Warren O'Hora
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
Event
Joe Newell → Dan Barlaser
7th Substitution
64'
Event
Josh Campbell → Jamie McGrath
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Ante Suto → Martin Boyle
8th Substitution
64'
58'
Event
Alexandros Kyziridis → Pierre Landry Kabore
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Blair Spittal → Michael Steinwender
5th Substitution
Event
Kanayo Megwa → Owen Elding
3rd Substitution
50'
Event
Felix Passlack
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
48'
46'
Event
Sabah Kerjota → Jordi Altena
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Felix Passlack
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
45+3'
45+2'
Event
Stephen Kingsley
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Warren O'Hora
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Jordan Smith → Nicky Cadden
1st Substitution
15'
Event
Raphael Sallinger
Professional handball / 1st Redcard
14'
Event
Raphael Sallinger
Card adjusted
13'
Event
Martin Boyle
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
7'

CONCLUSION

Hearts emerged victorious 1-2 over Hibernian, capitalizing on two second-half red cards that shifted momentum dramatically from a 1-0 halftime deficit. With 76% possession, the away side overwhelmed a depleted defense, affirming their status as the stronger team. Hibernian's early lead showcased resilience, but numerical disadvantage proved insurmountable, underscoring discipline's critical role. This result aligns with pre-match structural views, minimal deviations noted, and event distortions evident in the turnaround.

Hibernian vs Hearts preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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