Olympique Marseille vs Nice Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Ligue 1, France

Stade Vélodrome Sun, 26 Apr - 6:45 PM

Ligue 1

Olympique Marseille OM

Nice NCE

KICKOFF : Sun, 26 Apr - 6:45 PM

Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Olympique Marseille welcome Nice to the Stade Vélodrome for a Ligue 1 regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting sixth in the table, Marseille boast a clear edge over 15th-placed Nice, underscored by a power score of 24.91 against 17.96, translating to a seven-point advantage that marks them as the stronger side. Recent form tilts in Marseille's favor too, with a 14.22 score eclipsing Nice's 11.44. Hosting at their fortress-like home ground, Marseille aim to capitalize on this superiority in a matchup ripe for dominance. Nice face an uphill battle, needing to defy the metrics to salvage points. Detailed set-piece and efficiency insights remain limited due to data constraints, but the structural chasm points to a home showcase.

TL;DR

Structural: Marseille hold a 7-point power advantage (24.91 vs 17.96) and sit 6th to Nice's 15th.
Form: Marseille lead form scores at 14.22 compared to Nice's 11.44.
Squad: Marseille's higher power score reflects superior squad depth over Nice.
Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for both teams.
Transition: Transition play data unavailable for analysis.
Set pieces: Set-piece stats show low confidence with proxy data used for both sides.
xVariable: xG data unavailable, limiting advanced variable insights.
Market: Olympique Marseille 65% (Δ+0%) | Draw 20.8% (Δ+0%) | Nice 14.2% (Δ+0%).

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Jan 25 vs Team A

Feb 1 vs Team B

Feb 8 vs Team C

H. Beye

C. Puel

1.62

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.82

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

23 - 5 - 12

No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Olympique Marseille

65%

Draw

20.82%

Nice

14.18%

Team Power Ranking

24.91

17.96

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Olympique Marseille

Nice

Power Score

24.91

17.96

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Olympique Marseille — Opponent-weighted form score

Nice — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Olympique Marseille Nice

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Olympique Marseille OM Home

40 matches

Nice NCE Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+25

Goal Difference

-25

Expected Goals

xGA

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T02:03:39+00:00

General Information

Date & Time

Apr 26, 2026, 06:45 PM

Competition

2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 31 · Regular Season

Stadium

Stade Vélodrome

Capacity

67395

Pitch Surface

Grass

Weather

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Manager ▼

H. Beye Coach

Squad ▼

Jeffrey de Lange Goalkeeper

Gerónimo Rulli Goalkeeper

Théo Vermot Goalkeeper

Jelle Van Neck Goalkeeper

Benjamin Pavard Defender

Emerson Palmieri dos Santos Defender

Facundo Axel Medina Defender

Naif Aguerd Defender

Leonardo Julián Balerdi Rossa Defender

Conrad Jonathan Egan Riley Defender

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Midfielder

Geoffrey Kondogbia Midfielder

Himad Abdelli Midfielder

Timothy Weah Midfielder

Quinten Maduro Midfielder

Bilal Nadir Midfielder

Ethan Chidiebere Nwaneri Midfielder

Arthur Vermeeren Midfielder

Tochukwu Nadi Midfielder

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Attacker

Amine Gouiri Attacker

Hamed Junior Traorè Attacker

Mason Greenwood Attacker

Igor Guilherme Barbosa da Paixão Attacker

Manager ▼

C. Puel Coach

Squad ▼

Maxime Dupé Goalkeeper

Yehvann Diouf Goalkeeper

Bartosz Żelazowski Goalkeeper

Dante Bonfim da Costa Santos Defender

Jonathan Clauss Defender

Ali Abdi Defender

Youssouf Ndayishimiye Defender

Melvin Bard Defender

Mohamed Abdelmonem Defender

Antoine Mendy Defender

Kojo Peprah Oppong Defender

Moise Bombito Defender

Abdulay Juma Bah Defender

Morgan Stéphane Sanson Midfielder

Tanguy NDombèlé Alvaro Midfielder

Hichem Boudaoui Midfielder

Charles Vanhoutte Midfielder

Salis Abdul Samed Midfielder

Tom Alexis Louchet Midfielder

Everton Pereira Midfielder

Gabin Bernardeau Midfielder

Djibril Coulibaly Midfielder

Sofiane Diop Attacker

Isak Jansson Attacker

Tiago Maria Antunes Gouveia Attacker

Sepe Elye Wahi Attacker

Kevin Carlos Omoruyi Benjamin Attacker

Mohamed-Ali Cho Attacker

Kaïl Boudache Attacker

CONCLUSION

Marseille's structural and form edges position them as firm favorites against struggling Nice at the Vélodrome. With a seven-point power lead and home advantage, expect the hosts to control proceedings and secure a comfortable victory. Nice's lower standing and form score suggest resilience will be tested, but Marseille's quality should prevail in a fixture highlighting Ligue 1's top-half intensity. Key battles in midfield and attack will define the outcome, favoring the Phocaeans' push up the table.

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