Reggiana vs Palermo Match Preview, Stats & Prediction

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore Sat, 25 Apr - 1:00 PM

Serie B

Reggiana Reggiana

1 – 1

Palermo PAL

Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 1:00 PM

Round 36 Regular Season

Mathis Lambourde - 21'

Antonio Palumbo - 30'

Andrea Papetti 83'

CONTEXT

Reggiana battled to a hard-fought 1-1 draw against pre-match stronger side Palermo in Serie B, leveling the score at halftime after both teams netted once in an even first period. The second half turned dramatic when Reggiana received a red card, reducing them to 10 players while Palermo seized 70% possession against the home side's 30%. Despite relentless pressure, Palermo failed to score again, thwarted by resolute defending. This outcome defied structural expectations, marking a significant deviation for the visitors who dominated but couldn't convert superiority into a win. Reggiana's resilience earned a crucial point, highlighting defensive solidity under duress.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Palermo recorded a significant structural deviation of 74.4% from expectations.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with pre-match assessments.
xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: Market alignment did not occur as the draw defied pre-match favoritism.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
Event impact: Red card event substantially influenced match progression.
Red card distortion: Red card distortion drove second-half adjustments.
Market: Reggiana 18.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.6% (Δ+0%) | Palermo 55.9% (Δ+0%).

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

E. Feliciani

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Cipressa

1st Assistant

T. Miniutti

2nd Assistant

D. Di Marco

4th Official

P. Bisoli

F. Inzaghi

0.78

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.93

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

2 - 0 - 4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Reggiana

18.52%

Draw

25.63%

Palermo

55.85%

Team Power Ranking

15.11

32.04

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Reggiana

Palermo

Power Score

15.11

32.04

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Reggiana — Opponent-weighted form score

Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Reggiana Palermo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Reggiana

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Reggiana ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Palermo

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

14.33

32.07

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

32.07

14.33

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Reggiana -1.71 Efficiency Index

Palermo +1.71 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Reggiana

Palermo

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Reggiana ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Palermo

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Reggiana Palermo

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Reggiana Palermo

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Reggiana

Palermo

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Reggiana

Palermo

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Reggiana Palermo

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Reggiana Palermo

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Reggiana

Palermo

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

PAL had peak pressure around 31'.
PAL started the game with stronger pressure.

Reggiana Pressure PAL Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: PAL reached the top pressure at 31' (70.05).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Reggiana Reggiana Home

6 matches

Palermo PAL Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-4

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:02:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

1 A. Micai

2 A. Papetti

34 F. Vicari

47 M. Vanelli Lusuardi

43 S. Bonetti

16 T. Reinhart

57 L. Belardinelli

10 K. Bozhanaj

93 M. Lambourde

90 M. Portanova

11 C. Gondo

66 J. Joronen

32 P. Ceccaroni

29 P. Peda

27 N. Pierozzi

3 T. Augello

10 F. Ranocchia

8 J. Segre

18 R. Muati Modesto

5 A. Palumbo

21 J. Le Douaron

20 J. Pohjanpalo

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 25, 2026, 01:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season

Stadium :

MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Capacity :

21584

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Ermanno Feliciani

Alessandro Cipressa

Thomas Miniutti

Davide Di Marco

Statistics

Possession

Reggiana

36%

PAL

64%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

2 Big Chances Created 2

3 Shots 12

26 Dangerous attacks 49

30 Possession 70

2 Corners 7

9 Free kicks 11

3 Yellow Cards 1

1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

22 Throwins 23

10 Goal Kicks 4

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36

0 Hit Woodwork 1

63 Ball Safe 64

14 Dribble Attempts 14

7 Successful Dribbles 5

3 Injuries 0

3 Goal Attempts 11

0 Assists 1

5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

51 Attacks 70

1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

66 Successful Passes Percentage 88

19 Successful Long Passes 22

50 Long Passes 35

200 Passes 455

38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 63

131 Successful Passes 400

1 Key Passes 16

Defensive

47 Duels Won 55

18 Tackles 16

7 Saves 0

5 Interceptions 10

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 36

1 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

6 Offsides 1

11 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Ermanno Feliciani

Manager ▼

P. Bisoli Coach

Starting XI ▼

Alessandro Micai Goalkeeper

6.84

Andrea Papetti Defender

6.64

Francesco Vicari Defender

6.67

Simone Bonetti Defender

6.48

Mateus Lusuardi Defender

6.66

Kleis Bozhanaj Midfielder

6.6

Alessandro Tripaldelli

Defender46'

6.56

Tobías Reinhart Midfielder

7.03

Massimo Bertagnoli

Midfielder46'

6.74

Luca Belardinelli Midfielder

6.49

Charlys

Midfielder90+4'

6.76

Manolo Portanova Midfielder

6.92

Mathis Lambourde Midfielder

6.61

Matteo Rover

Attacker88'

6.59

Cedric Gondo Attacker

6.84

Natan Girma

Attacker74'

6.92

Substitutes ▼

Massimo Bertagnoli

Midfielder46'

6.74

Alessandro Tripaldelli

Defender46'

6.56

Natan Girma

Attacker74'

6.92

Matteo Rover

Attacker88'

6.59

Charlys

Midfielder90+4'

6.76

Bench ▼

Andrea Seculin Goalkeeper

6.7

Matteo Cardinali Goalkeeper

Danilo Quaranta Defender

6.51

Francesco Vallarelli Midfielder

6.5

Pietro Pinelli Midfielder

Andrija Novakovich Attacker

6.66

Tommaso Fumagalli Attacker

6.83

Referee : Ermanno Feliciani