Südtirol vs Mantova Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Marco Druso Sat, 25 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Südtirol SUD
Versus
Mantova MAN
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 1:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Südtirol host Mantova in Serie B (Regular Season) at Stadio Marco Druso. Domestically, Südtirol sit 11th in the table while Mantova are 12th. Power ranking favours Mantova by 5.5 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Mantova hold a +5.5 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Mantova sit below baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Südtirol show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Mantova have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Mantova carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Mantova hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Baseline split: Südtirol 43.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 29.6% (Δ+0%) | Mantova 26.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
VS
Mantova F. Modesto
F. Modesto
1.11
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.3
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spezia Rank: L
Modena Rank: D
Cesena Rank: D
Frosinone Rank: L
Avellino Rank: L
Pescara Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Avellino Rank: L
Spezia Rank: W
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Modena Rank: L
Cesena Rank: W
Empoli Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Südtirol
43.75%
Draw
29.61%
Away Mantova
26.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.62
23.08
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Südtirol
Mantova
Power Score
17.62
23.08
League Position
11
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Südtirol Mantova

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Südtirol SUD Home
3 matches
Mantova MAN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
3
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:04:05+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Adamonis
31 M. Adamonis
F. Davi
23 F. Davi
N. Pietrangeli
19 N. Pietrangeli
F. Veseli
34 F. Veseli
S. Molina
79 S. Molina
J. Martini
6 J. Martini
D. Črnigoj
89 D. Črnigoj
M. Frigerio
26 M. Frigerio
F. Bordon
3 F. Bordon
E. Pecorino
9 E. Pecorino
S. Merkaj
33 S. Merkaj
F. Bardi
24 F. Bardi
A. Castellini
27 A. Castellini
S. Cella
29 S. Cella
A. Dembélé
3 A. Dembélé
F. Benaissa-Yahia
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
D. Wieser
10 D. Wieser
R. Kouda
80 R. Kouda
T. Maggioni
96 T. Maggioni
F. Ruocco
19 F. Ruocco
D. Bragantini
30 D. Bragantini
L. Mancuso
9 L. Mancuso

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Marco Druso
Capacity
5539
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
6.76
3
Filipe Bordon
Filipe Bordon Midfielder
6.57
79
Salvatore Molina
Salvatore Molina Midfielder
6.92
9
Emanuele Pecorino
Emanuele Pecorino Attacker
6.94
33
Silvio Merkaj
Silvio Merkaj Attacker
6.65
23
Federico Davi
Federico Davi Right Back
6.51
89
Domen Črnigoj
Domen Črnigoj Central Midfield
6.53
6
Jacopo Martini
Jacopo Martini Central Midfield
6.68
19
Nicola Pietrangeli
Nicola Pietrangeli Centre Back
6.5
26
Marco Frigerio
Marco Frigerio Central Midfield
6.56
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Left Back
6.55

Starting XI ▼

24
Francesco Bardi
Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper
6.61
50
Fahem Benaïssa
Fahem Benaïssa Midfielder
6.82
96
Tommaso Maggioni
Tommaso Maggioni Midfielder
6.66
19
Francesco Ruocco
Francesco Ruocco Midfielder
6.89
30
Davide Bragantini
Davide Bragantini Midfielder
6.99
9
Leonardo Mancuso
Leonardo Mancuso Centre Forward
6.71
3
Ali Dembélé
Ali Dembélé Right Back
6.78
10
David Wieser
David Wieser Central Midfield
6.62
27
Alessio Castellini
Alessio Castellini Left Back
7.02
29
Stefano Cella
Stefano Cella Centre Back
6.8
80
Rachid Kouda
Rachid Kouda Central Midfield
6.97

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Mantova holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Mantova a 5.5-point edge. External projection is Südtirol 43.8%, draw 29.6%, and Mantova 26.6%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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