Heidenheim vs St. Pauli Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Heidenheim HDH
Versus
St. Pauli PAU
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Heidenheim host St. Pauli in Bundesliga (Regular Season) at Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion. Domestically, Heidenheim sit 18th in the table while St. Pauli are 16th. Power ranking favours St. Pauli by 1.1 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Heidenheim (18th) host St. Pauli (16th) in a Bundesliga relegation battle at Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion.
  • Form: Heidenheim's form score of 11.06 surpasses St. Pauli's 6.5.
  • Squad: St. Pauli possess a 1.1-point power advantage with 15.42 versus Heidenheim's 14.28.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable in the data.
  • Transition: Transition statistics not provided for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data uses low-confidence proxies without xG availability for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG data absent, limiting advanced variable analysis.
  • Market: Heidenheim 39.1% (Δ+0.6%) | Draw 27.9% (Δ+0%) | St. Pauli 33.1% (Δ-0.6%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Heidenheim F. Schmidt
F. Schmidt
VS
St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
0.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.83
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: L
FC Union Berlin Rank: W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: D
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Köln Rank: D
FC Bayern München Rank: L
FC Union Berlin Rank: D
SC Freiburg Rank: L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: L
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Heidenheim
39.09%
Draw
27.86%
Away St. Pauli
33.05%

Movement

Changes since opening
Heidenheim
+0.59%
Draw
0%
St. Pauli
-0.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.28
15.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Heidenheim
St. Pauli
Power Score
14.28
15.42
League Position
18
16
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Heidenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Heidenheim St. Pauli

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Heidenheim HDH Home
3 matches
St. Pauli PAU Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
3
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:04:36+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. Ramaj
41 D. Ramaj
M. Busch
2 M. Busch
P. Mainka
6 P. Mainka
J. Föhrenbach
19 J. Föhrenbach
H. Behrens
26 H. Behrens
N. Dorsch
30 N. Dorsch
J. Schöppner
3 J. Schöppner
J. Niehues
16 J. Niehues
A.Ibrahimovic
22 A.Ibrahimovic
M. Pieringer
18 M. Pieringer
M. Honsak
17 M. Honsak
N. Vasilj
22 N. Vasilj
K. Mets
3 K. Mets
H. Wahl
5 H. Wahl
T. Ando
15 T. Ando
L. Ritzka
21 L. Ritzka
M. Rasmussen
20 M. Rasmussen
J. Irvine
7 J. Irvine
A. Pyrka
11 A. Pyrka
J. Fujita
16 J. Fujita
D. Sinani
10 D. Sinani
A. Hountondji
27 A. Hountondji

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion
Capacity
15000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

41
Diant Ramaj
Diant Ramaj Goalkeeper
6.78
18
Marvin Pieringer
Marvin Pieringer Centre Forward
6.82
22
Arijon Ibrahimovic
Arijon Ibrahimovic Attacker
6.87
17
Mathias Honsak
Mathias Honsak Attacker
6.65
2
Marnon Busch
Marnon Busch Right Back
6.75
6
Patrick Mainka
Patrick Mainka Right Back
6.98
3
Jan Schöppner
Jan Schöppner Central Midfield
6.51
16
Julian Niehues
Julian Niehues Central Midfield
6.75
19
Jonas Föhrenbach
Jonas Föhrenbach Left Back
6.6
26
Hennes Behrens
Hennes Behrens Left Back
6.87
30
Niklas Dorsch
Niklas Dorsch Central Midfield
6.75

Starting XI ▼

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
6.83
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Midfielder
6.8
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Midfielder
6.65
10
Danel Sinani
Danel Sinani Midfielder
7.04
21
Lars Ritzka
Lars Ritzka Midfielder
6.59
27
Andréas Hountondji
Andréas Hountondji Centre Forward
6.56
15
T. Ando
T. Ando Right Back
6.67
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen Central Midfield
6.65
3
Karol Mets
Karol Mets Left Back
6.65
5
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl Centre Back
6.8
7
Jackson Irvine
Jackson Irvine Central Midfield
6.78

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward St. Pauli holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give St. Pauli a 1.1-point edge. External projection is Heidenheim 38.5%, draw 27.9%, and St. Pauli 33.6%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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