FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Mewa Arena Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 M05
Versus
FC Bayern München FCB
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

FSV Mainz 05 host FC Bayern München in Bundesliga (Regular Season) at Mewa Arena. Domestically, FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th in the table while FC Bayern München are 1th. Power ranking favours FC Bayern München by 20.6 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: FC Bayern München hold a 20.6-point power advantage and top the Bundesliga table ahead of 10th-placed FSV Mainz 05.
  • Form: Bayern edge form with a 38.06 rating over Mainz's 28.83.
  • Squad: Bayern's league-leading status highlights superior squad quality versus mid-table Mainz.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable as add-on not enabled.
  • Market: FSV Mainz 05 19.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 20.7% (Δ+0%) | FC Bayern München 59.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
VS
FC Bayern München V. Kompany
V. Kompany
1.3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.52
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: D
SC Freiburg Rank: L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: W
Werder Bremen Rank: W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfB Stuttgart Rank: W
St. Pauli Rank: W
SC Freiburg Rank: W
FC Union Berlin Rank: W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 4 - 25
25
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FSV Mainz 05
19.79%
Draw
20.66%
Away FC Bayern München
59.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.4
53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München
Power Score
32.4
53
League Position
10
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Bayern München — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FSV Mainz 05 FC Bayern München

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FSV Mainz 05 M05 Home
37 matches
FC Bayern München FCB Away
Match Record
8
Wins
25
4
Draws
4
25
Losses
8
Goals
43
Goals Scored
104
104
Goals Conceded
43
-61
Goal Difference
+61
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:04:46+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Mewa Arena
Capacity
34000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
27
Robin Zentner
Robin Zentner Goalkeeper
1
Lasse Finn Rieß
Lasse Finn Rieß Goalkeeper
21
Danny Vieira da Costa
Danny Vieira da Costa Defender
31
Dominik Kohr
Dominik Kohr Defender
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
2
Philipp Mwene
Philipp Mwene Defender
5
Maxim Leitsch
Maxim Leitsch Defender
19
Anthony Caci
Anthony Caci Defender
30
Silvan Widmer
Silvan Widmer Defender
25
Andreas Hanche-Olsen
Andreas Hanche-Olsen Defender
47
Maxim Bora Dal
Maxim Bora Dal Defender
18
Kasey Bos
Kasey Bos Defender
48
Kacper Potulski
Kacper Potulski Defender
10
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri Midfielder
7
Jae-Sung Lee
Jae-Sung Lee Midfielder
15
Lennard Patrick Maloney
Lennard Patrick Maloney Midfielder
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Midfielder
28
Niklas Tauer
Niklas Tauer Midfielder
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
24
Sota Kawasaki
Sota Kawasaki Midfielder
22
Nikolas Veratschnig
Nikolas Veratschnig Midfielder
42
Daniel Gleiber
Daniel Gleiber Midfielder
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
17
Benedict Hollerbach
Benedict Hollerbach Attacker
26
Silla Wamangituka
Silla Wamangituka Attacker
11
Armindo Sieb
Armindo Sieb Attacker
14
William Bøving Vick
William Bøving Vick Attacker
44
Nelson Felix Patrick Weiper
Nelson Felix Patrick Weiper Attacker
16
Stefan Bell
Stefan Bell Coach

Squad ▼

1
Manuel Neuer
Manuel Neuer Goalkeeper
26
Sven Ulreich
Sven Ulreich Goalkeeper
40
Jonas Urbig
Jonas Urbig Goalkeeper
48
Leon Klanac
Leon Klanac Goalkeeper
4
Jonathan Tah
Jonathan Tah Defender
2
Dayotchanculle Upamecano
Dayotchanculle Upamecano Defender
27
Konrad Laimer
Konrad Laimer Defender
19
Alphonso Davies
Alphonso Davies Defender
3
Min-Jae Kim
Min-Jae Kim Defender
21
Hiroki Ito
Hiroki Ito Defender
44
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic Defender
8
Leon Goretzka
Leon Goretzka Midfielder
6
Joshua Kimmich
Joshua Kimmich Midfielder
22
Raphaël Adelino José Guerreiro
Raphaël Adelino José Guerreiro Midfielder
10
Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala Midfielder
45
Aleksandar Pavlović
Aleksandar Pavlović Midfielder
20
Tom Bischof
Tom Bischof Midfielder
47
David Daiber
David Daiber Midfielder
42
Lennart Karl
Lennart Karl Midfielder
39
Bara Joseph Sapoko Ndiaye
Bara Joseph Sapoko Ndiaye Midfielder
7
Serge Gnabry
Serge Gnabry Attacker
9
Harry Kane
Harry Kane Attacker
14
Luis Fernando Díaz Marulanda
Luis Fernando Díaz Marulanda Attacker
17
Michael Olise
Michael Olise Attacker
11
Nicolas Jackson
Nicolas Jackson Attacker

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward FC Bayern München holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give FC Bayern München a 20.6-point edge. External projection is FSV Mainz 05 20.2%, draw 20.4%, and FC Bayern München 59.3%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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