OH Leuven vs Sporting Charleroi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Pro League
OH Leuven OHL
0 Winner 2
Sporting Charleroi SPC
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 5 Conference League Play-off Group
|
Goal
Aurélien Scheidler - 69'
Antoine Bernier - 53'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. OH Leuven 0–2 Sporting Charleroi. The result saw Sporting Charleroi take the points. Sporting Charleroi showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 57%–43%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Charleroi's 0-2 win exhibited a 64% significant deviation from structural expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome aligned with pre-match market distributions.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to absent metrics.
  • Event impact: No major events like adjustments or ties altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards eliminated any disciplinary distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Letellier

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Maszowez

1st Assistant

C. Battiston

2nd Assistant

T. De Keyzer

4th Official

OH Leuven F. Mazzù
F. Mazzù
VS
Sporting Charleroi M. Kohnen
M. Kohnen
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Westerlo Rank: L
Antwerp Rank: L
Genk Rank: D
Standard Liège Rank: L
Antwerp Rank: W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genk Rank: D
Standard Liège Rank: L
Antwerp Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 8 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home OH Leuven
35.65%
Draw
28.35%
Away Sporting Charleroi
36%

Movement

Changes since opening
OH Leuven
+35.41%
Draw
+25.97%
Sporting Charleroi
-61.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.29
16.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
OH Leuven
Sporting Charleroi
Power Score
18.29
16.67
League Position
12
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) OH Leuven Sporting Charleroi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

OH Leuven

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting Charleroi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

OH Leuven ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
10.79
30.58
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.58
10.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
OH Leuven -1.88 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting Charleroi +1.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
OH Leuven
Sporting Charleroi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

OH Leuven ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
OH Leuven Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
OH Leuven Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
OH Leuven
Sporting Charleroi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
OH Leuven
vs
Sporting Charleroi
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
OH Leuven Sporting Charleroi
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
OH Leuven 0.09
Sporting Charleroi 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
OH Leuven Sporting Charleroi
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
OH Leuven 0.05
Sporting Charleroi 0.00
OH Leuven
Sporting Charleroi
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SPC had peak pressure around 81'.
  • SPC started the game with stronger pressure.
OHL Pressure SPC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SPC reached the top pressure at 81' (86.86).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

OH Leuven OHL Home
22 matches
Sporting Charleroi SPC Away
Match Record
9
Wins
5
8
Draws
8
5
Losses
9
Goals
27
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
27
+8
Goal Difference
-8
Expected Goals
1.46
xG
2.52
2.52
xGA
1.46

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:05:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. Leysen
Belgium
1 T. Leysen
E. Pletinckx
Belgium
28 E. Pletinckx
R. Nyakossi
Switzerland
34 R. Nyakossi
T. Ominami
Japan
5 T. Ominami
T. Vlietinck
Substitution
Belgium
77 T. Vlietinck
B. Kayo
Substitution
United States
48 B. Kayo
S. Schrijvers
Belgium
8 S. Schrijvers
H. Teklab
Germany
14 H. Teklab
T. Verlinden
Substitution
Belgium
7 T. Verlinden
S. Kaba
Substitution
Guinea
39 S. Kaba
Y. Maziz
Substitution
France
10 Y. Maziz
Pitch
M. Kone
France
30 M. Kone
M. Nzita
Belgium
24 M. Nzita
C. keita
France
95 C. keita
A. Ousou
Sweden
4 A. Ousou
L. Blum
Switzerland
27 L. Blum
Y. Khalifi
Substitution
Morocco
40 Y. Khalifi
E. Camara
France
5 E. Camara
A. Bernier
Substitution
Belgium
17 A. Bernier
P. Pflücke
Substitution
Germany
14 P. Pflücke
K. Van Den Kerkhof
Substitution
Algeria
3 K. Van Den Kerkhof
A. Colassin
Substitution
Belgium
25 A. Colassin

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 5 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion
Capacity :
10020
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Anthony Letellier
Nicolas Maszowez
Christophe Battiston
Tim De Keyzer

Statistics

Possession
OHL
54%
SPC
46%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 5
0 Shots 5
43 Dangerous attacks 43
57 Possession 43
4 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
13 Throwins 19
5 Goal Kicks 4
1 Successful Dribbles 6
0 Hit Woodwork 2
4 Dribble Attempts 9
4 Injuries 2
3 Goal Attempts 7
64 Ball Safe 60
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 2

Attacking

102 Attacks 64
0 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

49 Long Passes 49
512 Passes 381
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
448 Successful Passes 318
24 Successful Long Passes 21
88 Successful Passes Percentage 83
4 Key Passes 9

Defensive

6 Interceptions 9
2 Saves 3
11 Tackles 3
33 Duels Won 26

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 18
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Anthony Letellier

Starting XI ▼

1
Tobe Leysen
Tobe Leysen Goalkeeper
7.01
5
Takuma Ominami
Takuma Ominami Defender
6.63
28
Ewoud Pletinckx
Ewoud Pletinckx Defender
6.84
34
Roggerio Nyakossi
Roggerio Nyakossi Defender
6.84
8
Siebe Schrijvers
Siebe Schrijvers Midfielder
7
14
Henok Teklab
Henok Teklab Midfielder
6.77
48
Bryang Kayo
Bryang Kayo Midfielder
6.56
24
Lukasz Lakomy
Lukasz Lakomy
Midfielder46'
6.83
77
Thibault Vlietinck
Thibault Vlietinck Midfielder
6.43
27
Óscar Gil
Óscar Gil
Defender46'
6.6
7
Thibaud Verlinden
Thibaud Verlinden Attacker
6.75
33
Mathieu Maertens
Mathieu Maertens
Midfielder77'
6.69
10
Youssef Maziz
Youssef Maziz Attacker
6.98
17
Kyan Vaesen
Kyan Vaesen
Attacker77'
6.59
39
Sory Kaba
Sory Kaba Attacker
6.88
19
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Attacker77'
6.68
Referee : Anthony Letellier

Starting XI ▼

30
Mohamed Koné
Mohamed Koné Goalkeeper
6.92
4
Aiham Ousou
Aiham Ousou Defender
6.86
24
Mardochée Nzita
Mardochée Nzita Defender
6.72
27
Lewin Blum
Lewin Blum Defender
6.63
95
Check Keita
Check Keita Defender
6.71
3
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof Midfielder
6.73
32
Mehdi Boukamir
Mehdi Boukamir
Defender86'
6.44
5
Étienne Camara
Étienne Camara Midfielder
6.89
14
Patrick Pflücke
Patrick Pflücke Midfielder
6.81
8
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Midfielder59'
6.72
17
Antoine Bernier
Antoine Bernier Midfielder
6.82
45
Y. Cisse
Y. Cisse
Midfielder80'
6.52
40
Yassine Khalifi
Yassine Khalifi Midfielder
6.67
23
Jules Gaudin
Jules Gaudin
Defender86'
6.62
25
Antoine Colassin
Antoine Colassin Attacker
6.64
21
Aurélien Scheidler
Aurélien Scheidler
Attacker59'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Jules Gaudin → Yassine Khalifi
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Mehdi Boukamir → Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
9th Substitution
Event
Siebe Schrijvers
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
80'
80'
Event
Y. Cisse → Antoine Bernier
8th Substitution
Event
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi → Sory Kaba
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Mathieu Maertens → Thibaud Verlinden
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Kyan Vaesen → Youssef Maziz
7th Substitution
77'
69'
Event
Aurélien Scheidler
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
Event
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas → Patrick Pflücke
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Aurélien Scheidler → Antoine Colassin
4th Substitution
53'
Event
Antoine Bernier
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Lukasz Lakomy → Bryang Kayo
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Óscar Gil → Thibault Vlietinck
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Sory Kaba
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'

CONCLUSION

Sporting Charleroi's 0-2 triumph over OH Leuven underscores the value of efficiency in modern football, turning 43% possession into victory against the stronger hosts. Leuven's 57% ball control yielded nothing, exposing vulnerabilities in their attack during a goalless first half that shifted dramatically post-interval. Without red cards or disruptive events, the game highlighted pure execution, with Charleroi's significant 64% deviation rewarding their opportunism. This outcome boosts Charleroi's momentum while prompting Leuven to refine chance creation. In a balanced contest, visitors proved decisive where it mattered most.

OH Leuven vs Sporting Charleroi preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.