Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Pittodrie Stadium
Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Aberdeen
ABE
1
0
0
Kilmarnock
KIL
Full Time
Sat, 25 Apr
2:00 PM
Round 34 ·
2nd Phase
Afeez Aremu - 1'
|
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Jul 11
CONTEXT
Aberdeen secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Kilmarnock at home, striking first in the opening half to lead 1-0 at halftime and holding firm thereafter. Despite enjoying only 41% possession against Kilmarnock's 59%, the Dons demonstrated clinical finishing and resolute defending to defy expectations. Kilmarnock, considered the stronger side pre-match, dominated the ball but failed to convert chances, leaving Aberdeen's backline unbreached. The minimal structural deviation of 3.9% underscored a result closely aligned with underlying patterns, with no red cards or major disruptions altering the flow. Efficiency stayed in line with norms, and the outcome matched market alignments despite the possession disparity. Aberdeen's opportunistic approach proved decisive, capitalizing on their limited control to grind out three points in a tightly contested affair.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Aberdeen's 1-0 win exhibited minimal structural deviation of 3.9%.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
-
xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
-
Market alignment: Match outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without available metrics.
-
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events significantly impacted proceedings.
-
Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from disciplinary actions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
N. Walsh
•
25 matches in sample
Avg. cards
0.12
0.12
Fouls / match
0.52
Yellow cards / match
0.12
Red cards / match
0
Penalties / match
0
Other match officials
F. Connor
1st Assistant
D. McFarlane
2nd Assistant
S. Murdoch
4th Official
S. Robinson
VS
N. McCann
1.04
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0.72
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian
Rank:
W
St. Mirren
Rank:
L
Rangers
Rank:
L
Falkirk
Rank:
D
Celtic
Rank:
L
Hearts
Rank:
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee
Rank:
D
Hibernian
Rank:
L
Livingston
Rank:
W
Hearts
Rank:
W
Falkirk
Rank:
L
Dundee United
Rank:
D
38
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
38 - 12 - 17
17
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Aberdeen
96.07%
Draw
3.73%
Kilmarnock
0.19%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.18
19.66
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Power Score
15.18
19.66
League Position
8
11
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Aberdeen
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Kilmarnock
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Aberdeen Kilmarnock
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Aberdeen
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Kilmarnock
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Aberdeen
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Kilmarnock
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.34
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.76
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Aberdeen
+0.55
Efficiency Index
vs
Kilmarnock
-0.55
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Aberdeen
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Kilmarnock
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Aberdeen
vs
Kilmarnock
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Aberdeen
0.18
Kilmarnock
0.13
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Aberdeen
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.02
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- ABE had peak pressure around 82'.
- ABE started the game with stronger pressure.
ABE Pressure
KIL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
ABE reached the top pressure at 82' (59.31).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 67 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Aberdeen
ABE
Home
67
matches
Kilmarnock
KIL
Away
Match Record
38
Wins
17
12
Draws
12
17
Losses
38
Goals
99
Goals Scored
63
63
Goals Conceded
99
+36
Goal Difference
-36
Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:05:15+00:00
STARTING XI
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Match Formation
3-4-1-2
Match Formation
4-4-2
1 D. Mitov
E. Bwomono
#4281'
22 J. Milne
23 L. Morrison
21 G. Molloy
28 A. Jensen
A. Palaversa
#1872'
32 A. Aremu
M. Knoester
#572'
16 S. Armstrong
G. Shinnie
#458'
3 M. Frame
D. Geiger
#859'
25 L. Cameron
T. Keskinen
#8187'
20 T. Olusanya
15 K. Nisbet
1 M. Stryjek
R. McKenzie
#768'
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen
6 R. Deas
14 G. Stanger
D. Thompson
#35'
2 J. Brandon
K. Magennis
#1677'
11 G. Kiltie
36 A. Tshibola
D. Watson
#1284'
18 T. Lowery
B. Lyons
#884'
52 F. Curtis
44 J. Hugill
B. Anderson
#1977'
20 N. Serghei Clescenco
General Information
📅
Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
🏆
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 34 · 2nd Phase
🏟️
Stadium :
Pittodrie Stadium
👥
Capacity :
20866
🌱
Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️
Referees :
N. Walsh
Frank Connor
Daniel McFarlane
S. Murdoch
Next Match
Aberdeen
vs
Livingston
League: Premiership
Kickoff: Fri, 1 May - 6:45 PM
Venue: Tony Macaroni Arena
Kilmarnock
vs
Dundee United
League: Premiership
Kickoff: Sat, 2 May - 2:00 PM
Venue: Rugby Park
Statistics
Possession
ABE
41%
KIL
59%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
0
2
Big Chances Created
0
10
Shots
11
57
Dangerous attacks
84
41
Possession
59
6
Corners
5
16
Free kicks
16
1
Yellow Cards
4
Match Overview
6
Substitutions
3
4
Dribble Attempts
7
25
Successful Dribbles Percentage
86
24
Throwins
30
6
Goal Kicks
6
1
Successful Dribbles
6
66
Ball Safe
77
1
Injuries
1
1
Hit Woodwork
2
Attacking
78
Attacks
110
2
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
206
Successful Passes
321
302
Passes
428
26
Successful Long Passes Percentage
40
13
Successful Long Passes
30
7
Key Passes
7
50
Long Passes
75
68
Successful Passes Percentage
75
Defensive
44
Duels Won
51
8
Interceptions
5
15
Tackles
12
3
Saves
3
Build-up
20
Total Crosses
30
6
Accurate Crosses
5
Discipline
16
Fouls
16
1
Offsides
0
Lineup
Aberdeen
Referee :
N. Walsh
Manager ▼
S. Robinson
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Dimitar Mitov
Goalkeeper
6.82 21
Gavin Molloy
Defender
6.72 22
Jack Milne
Defender
6.73 42Elvis Bwomono
6.44Defender81'
23
Liam Morrison
Defender
6.54
3
Mitchel Frame
Midfielder
6.72 4Graeme Shinnie
6.71Midfielder58'
16
Stuart Armstrong
Midfielder
6.96 5Mats Knoester
6.87Defender72'
28
Alexander Jensen
Midfielder
6.69 32
Afeez Aremu
Midfielder
18Ante Palaversa
6.61Midfielder72'
15
Kevin Nisbet
Attacker
6.86 20
Toyosi Olusanya
Attacker
6.56 81Topi Keskinen
6.72Attacker87'
25
Lyall Cameron
Attacker
6.58 8Dennis Geiger
6.63Midfielder59'
Substitutes ▼
4Graeme Shinnie
6.71Midfielder58'
8Dennis Geiger
6.63Midfielder59'
5Mats Knoester
6.87Defender72'
18Ante Palaversa
6.61Midfielder72'
42Elvis Bwomono
6.44Defender81'
81Topi Keskinen
6.72Attacker87'
Bench ▼
99
Per Kristian Bråtveit
Goalkeeper
6.95 38
Dylan Lobban
Midfielder
6.55 27
Marko Lazetić
Attacker
6.58
Kilmarnock
Referee :
N. Walsh
Manager ▼
N. McCann
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Maksymilian Stryjek
Goalkeeper
7.11 2
Jamie Brandon
Defender
6.69 3Dominic Thompson
6.58Defender5'
6
Robbie Deas
Defender
6.73
14
George Stanger
Defender
6.58
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Defender
6.6 7Rory McKenzie
6.49Midfielder68'
11
Greg Kiltie
Midfielder
6.86 16Kyle Magennis
Midfielder77'
6.51
18
Tom Lowery
Midfielder
6.47
12David Watson
6.71Midfielder84'
36
Aaron Tshibola
Midfielder
6.64 52
Findlay Curtis
Midfielder
6.68 8Brad Lyons
6.77Midfielder84'
20
Nicky Clescenco
Attacker
6.44 19Bruce Anderson
6.61Attacker77'
44
Joe Hugill
Attacker
6.92 Substitutes ▼
3Dominic Thompson
6.58Defender5'
7Rory McKenzie
6.49Midfielder68'
16Kyle Magennis
Midfielder77'
6.51
19Bruce Anderson
6.61Attacker77'
12David Watson
6.71Midfielder84'
8Brad Lyons
6.77Midfielder84'
Bench ▼
13
Kelle Roos
Goalkeeper
7.02 4
Zac Williams
Defender
6.48 5
Lewis Mayo
Defender
6.67
Events
2ND-HALF
90+1'
Kyle Magennis
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Liam Morrison
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90'
Topi Keskinen → Toyosi Olusanya
12th Substitution
87'
84'
David Watson → Tom Lowery
11th Substitution
84'
Brad Lyons → Findlay Curtis
10th Substitution
Elvis Bwomono → Jack Milne
9th Substitution
81'
78'
Robbie Deas
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
Kyle Magennis → Greg Kiltie
8th Substitution
77'
Bruce Anderson → Nicky Clescenco
7th Substitution
Mats Knoester → Stuart Armstrong
5th Substitution
72'
Ante Palaversa → Afeez Aremu
6th Substitution
72'
68'
Rory McKenzie → Michael Schjönning-Larsen
4th Substitution
66'
Tom Lowery
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
64'
George Stanger
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Dennis Geiger → Lyall Cameron
3rd Substitution
59'
Graeme Shinnie → Mitchel Frame
2nd Substitution
58'
1ST-HALF
5'
Dominic Thompson → Jamie Brandon
1st Substitution
Afeez Aremu
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1'
CONCLUSION
Aberdeen's 1-0 triumph over Kilmarnock highlights their ability to win gritty battles through smart execution rather than dominance. Leading 1-0 at halftime, they absorbed pressure admirably despite ceding possession, showcasing defensive solidity and timely scoring. Kilmarnock's failure to capitalize on superior ball control exposed vulnerabilities in their attack. With minimal deviation and full market alignment, this result reinforces Aberdeen's resilience. No disruptions like red cards kept the focus on tactical discipline, proving that efficiency in key moments trumps raw stats. A statement win that boosts morale heading forward.
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
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Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.