NAC Breda vs Ajax Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Rat Verlegh Stadion Sat, 25 Apr - 6:00 PM
Eredivisie
NAC Breda NAC
Versus
Ajax AJA
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 6:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

NAC Breda welcome Ajax to Rat Verlegh Stadion in this Eredivisie regular season encounter for the 2025/2026 campaign. The hosts sit precariously in 17th place, grappling with relegation pressures, while Ajax occupy a strong 5th position. Ajax hold a decisive edge with a power score of 28.79 compared to NAC's 15.03, yielding a 13.8-point advantage that underscores their structural superiority. Form metrics further tilt the scales, as Ajax's 16.78 rating outpaces NAC's modest 8.22. Projections reflect this imbalance, assigning Ajax the highest likelihood at 47.8%, ahead of NAC's 26.6% and a 25.7% draw chance. Advanced data on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces remains limited due to unavailable xG metrics, setting up a classic David versus Goliath battle where Ajax's quality should prevail.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Ajax command a 13.8-point power advantage over NAC Breda.
  • Form: Ajax's form score of 16.78 surpasses NAC Breda's 8.22.
  • Squad: Ajax rank 5th in the Eredivisie while NAC Breda sit 17th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable for this fixture.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data limited by lack of xG availability and low confidence.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable, with proxies used for both sides.
  • Market: Projection split: NAC Breda 26.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.7% (Δ+0%) | Ajax 47.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
NAC Breda C. Hoefkens
C. Hoefkens
VS
Ajax Ó. García Junyent
Ó. García Junyent
0.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fortuna Sittard Rank: D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: D
PEC Zwolle Rank: L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: L
Feyenoord Rank: D
Telstar Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Heracles Almelo Rank: W
FC Twente Rank: L
Feyenoord Rank: D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: W
FC Groningen Rank: L
PEC Zwolle Rank: D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 5 - 20
20
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home NAC Breda
26.57%
Draw
25.66%
Away Ajax
47.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.03
28.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
NAC Breda
Ajax
Power Score
15.03
28.79
League Position
17
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
NAC Breda — Opponent-weighted form score
Ajax — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) NAC Breda Ajax

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

NAC Breda NAC Home
27 matches
Ajax AJA Away
Match Record
2
Wins
20
5
Draws
5
20
Losses
2
Goals
17
Goals Scored
75
75
Goals Conceded
17
-58
Goal Difference
+58
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:09:35+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. Bielica
99 D. Bielica
D. Odoi
3 D. Odoi
L. Greiml
12 L. Greiml
C. Leemans
8 C. Leemans
B. Kemper
4 B. Kemper
F. Oldrup Jensen
20 F. Oldrup Jensen
K. Sowah
14 K. Sowah
J. Talvitie
32 J. Talvitie
L. Holtby
90 L. Holtby
R. Paula
11 R. Paula
André Ayew Pelé
24 André Ayew Pelé
M. Paes
26 M. Paes
L. Rosa
2 L. Rosa
Y. Baas
15 Y. Baas
J. Šutalo
37 J. Šutalo
A. Gaaei
3 A. Gaaei
J. Mokio
24 J. Mokio
K. Itakura
4 K. Itakura
O. Gloukh
10 O. Gloukh
M. Godts
11 M. Godts
W. Weghorst
25 W. Weghorst
S. Berghuis
23 S. Berghuis

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Rat Verlegh Stadion
Capacity
19000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

99
Daniel Bielica
Daniel Bielica Goalkeeper
6.84
24
André Ayew
André Ayew Centre Forward
6.69
90
Lewis Holtby
Lewis Holtby Attacking Midfield
6.83
4
Boy Kemper
Boy Kemper Left Back
6.93
14
Kamal Sowah
Kamal Sowah Defensive Midfield
6.7
3
Denis Odoi
Denis Odoi Right Back
6.63
8
Clint Leemans
Clint Leemans Left Back
6.77
32
Juho Talvitie
Juho Talvitie Right Wing
6.67
12
Leo Greiml
Leo Greiml Right Back
7.03
11
Raul Paula
Raul Paula Left Wing
6.71
20
Fredrik Oldrup Jensen
Fredrik Oldrup Jensen Defensive Midfield
6.72

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Paes
Maarten Paes Goalkeeper
6.92
11
Mika Godts
Mika Godts Attacker
7.56
23
Steven Berghuis
Steven Berghuis Attacker
7.39
25
Wout Weghorst
Wout Weghorst Centre Forward
7.13
2
Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa Left Back
6.92
3
Anton Gaaei
Anton Gaaei Right Back
6.78
4
Ko Itakura
Ko Itakura Central Midfield
6.94
10
Oscar Gloukh
Oscar Gloukh Central Midfield
6.95
15
Youri Baas
Youri Baas Left Back
7.15
24
Jorthy Mokio
Jorthy Mokio Central Midfield
6.8
37
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Right Back
6.77

CONCLUSION

Ajax enter as clear frontrunners against NAC Breda, backed by superior power ratings, league standing, and recent form. The 13.8-point edge signals their dominance in structure and quality, likely translating to control in possession and chance creation. NAC Breda face an uphill task at home, relying on grit and set-piece opportunities amid sparse advanced data. While the hosts' desperation might spark moments of chaos, Ajax's pedigree positions them to secure a convincing victory and climb the table further.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Eredivisie View all league clusters