Thun vs Lugano Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stockhorn Arena Sat, 25 Apr - 6:30 PM
Super League
Thun THU
Versus
Lugano Lugano
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 6:30 PM
Championship Round

CONTEXT

Thun faces Lugano at Stockhorn Arena in the Super League Championship Round during the 2025/2026 season, a matchup pitting 5th-placed hosts against 3rd-placed visitors. Lugano enters with a power score of 23.49, surpassing Thun's 21 for a 2.5-point edge, marking them as the stronger side overall. Form scores reflect this closely, Lugano at 14.5 to Thun's 13.5, indicating subtle recent superiority. As both chase improved standings, home advantage bolsters Thun's case in a contest expected to hinge on execution amid unavailable specifics on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces. Low-confidence proxy data limits deeper set-piece insights, shifting emphasis to power and positioning. Lugano's higher ranking suggests quality, yet Thun's venue familiarity could level proceedings in this competitive league encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural: League table sees Lugano ahead in 3rd place while Thun holds 5th.
  • Form: Lugano claims a narrow form advantage at 14.5 over Thun's 13.5.
  • Squad: Power ratings favor Lugano's squad with 23.49 against Thun's 21.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency figures remain unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats use low-confidence proxies for Thun and Lugano.
  • xVariable: xG variables absent due to data unavailability.
  • Market: Baseline split: Thun 50.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.4% (Δ+0%) | Lugano 24.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Thun M. Lustrinelli
M. Lustrinelli
VS
Lugano M. Croci-Torti
M. Croci-Torti
2.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Basel Rank: W
Lugano Rank: L
Zürich Rank: L
Grasshopper Rank: W
Young Boys Rank: W
St. Gallen Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zürich Rank: W
Thun Rank: W
Young Boys Rank: D
St. Gallen Rank: D
Luzern Rank: L
Sion Rank: W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 7 - 8
8
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Thun
50.85%
Draw
24.41%
Away Lugano
24.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21
23.49
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Thun
Lugano
Power Score
21
23.49
League Position
5
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Thun — Opponent-weighted form score
Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Thun Lugano

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Thun THU Home
23 matches
Lugano Lugano Away
Match Record
8
Wins
8
7
Draws
7
8
Losses
8
Goals
32
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
32
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:09:48+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
N. Steffen
24 N. Steffen
F. Fehr
47 F. Fehr
G. Montolio Lafuente
4 G. Montolio Lafuente
J. Bamert
19 J. Bamert
M. Heule
27 M. Heule
F. Meichtry
77 F. Meichtry
L. Bertone
6 L. Bertone
J. Roth
16 J. Roth
K. Imeri
7 K. Imeri
C. Ibayi
18 C. Ibayi
E. Rastoder
74 E. Rastoder
A. Saipi
1 A. Saipi
M. Costa Marques
26 M. Costa Marques
H. Delcroix
3 H. Delcroix
A. Papadopoulos
6 A. Papadopoulos
M. Zanotti
46 M. Zanotti
D. dos Santos Correia
27 D. dos Santos Correia
U. Bislimi
25 U. Bislimi
A. Grgic
8 A. Grgic
Y. Cimignani
21 Y. Cimignani
G. Koutsias
9 G. Koutsias
R. Steffen
11 R. Steffen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Championship Round
Stadium
Stockhorn Arena
Capacity
10398
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

24
Niklas Steffen
Niklas Steffen Goalkeeper
6.93
7
Kastriot Imeri
Kastriot Imeri Midfielder
7
77
Franz-Ethan Meichtry
Franz-Ethan Meichtry Midfielder
6.82
18
Christopher Ibayi
Christopher Ibayi Attacker
6.98
74
Elmin Rastoder
Elmin Rastoder Attacker
7.08
6
Leonardo Bertone
Leonardo Bertone Central Midfield
7.05
4
Genís Montolio
Genís Montolio Right Back
7.1
16
Justin Roth
Justin Roth Central Midfield
6.79
19
Jan Bamert
Jan Bamert Left Back
7.01
27
Michael Heule
Michael Heule Left Back
7.06
47
Fabio Fehr
Fabio Fehr Right Back
7.11

Starting XI ▼

1
Amir Saipi
Amir Saipi Goalkeeper
7.29
21
Yanis Cimignani
Yanis Cimignani Midfielder
6.9
27
Daniel Dos Santos
Daniel Dos Santos Midfielder
6.91
9
Georgios Koutsias
Georgios Koutsias Attacker
6.74
11
Renato Steffen
Renato Steffen Attacker
7.05
6
Antonios Papadopoulos
Antonios Papadopoulos Right Back
7.06
8
Anto Grgic
Anto Grgic Central Midfield
7.3
26
Martim Marques
Martim Marques Left Back
6.62
46
Mattia Zanotti
Mattia Zanotti Right Back
7.06
3
Hannes Delcroix
Hannes Delcroix Left Back
6.92
25
Uran Bislimi
Uran Bislimi Central Midfield
7.18

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Lugano holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Lugano a 2.5-point edge. External projection is Thun 50.9%, draw 24.4%, and Lugano 24.7%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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