RB Leipzig vs FC Union Berlin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Red Bull Arena Fri, 24 Apr - 6:30 PM
Bundesliga
RB Leipzig RBL
Versus
FC Union Berlin FCU
KICKOFF : Fri, 24 Apr - 6:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

RB Leipzig host FC Union Berlin in Bundesliga (Regular Season) at Red Bull Arena. Domestically, RB Leipzig sit 4th in the table while FC Union Berlin are 11th. Power ranking favours RB Leipzig by 15.1 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: RB Leipzig enjoy a 15.1-point power advantage over FC Union Berlin.
  • Form: Leipzig's form score of 29.89 significantly outpaces Union's 10.61.
  • Squad: Leipzig sit 4th in the Bundesliga, while Union occupy 11th place.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Leipzig's superior power score suggests stronger transition play.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece metrics unavailable due to lack of xG data and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable, limiting advanced variable analysis.
  • Market: Baseline split: RB Leipzig 68.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 19.7% (Δ+0%) | FC Union Berlin 11.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
RB Leipzig O. Werner
O. Werner
VS
FC Union Berlin S. Baumgart
S. Baumgart
1.78
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: W
Werder Bremen Rank: W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: L
FC Augsburg Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: D
Heidenheim Rank: L
St. Pauli Rank: D
FC Bayern München Rank: L
SC Freiburg Rank: W
Werder Bremen Rank: L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 2 - 6
6
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home RB Leipzig
68.67%
Draw
19.66%
Away FC Union Berlin
11.67%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.85
17.74
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
RB Leipzig
FC Union Berlin
Power Score
32.85
17.74
League Position
4
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
RB Leipzig — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Union Berlin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) RB Leipzig FC Union Berlin

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

RB Leipzig RBL Home
13 matches
FC Union Berlin FCU Away
Match Record
5
Wins
6
2
Draws
2
6
Losses
5
Goals
19
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
19
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T02:06:34+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 24, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Red Bull Arena
Capacity
47069
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

1
Péter Gulácsi
Péter Gulácsi Goalkeeper
25
Leopold Zingerle
Leopold Zingerle Goalkeeper
26
Maarten Vandevoordt
Maarten Vandevoordt Goalkeeper
4
Willi Orban
Willi Orban Defender
39
Benjamin Henrichs
Benjamin Henrichs Defender
16
Lukas Klostermann
Lukas Klostermann Defender
22
David Raum
David Raum Defender
17
Ridle Bote Baku
Ridle Bote Baku Defender
23
Castello Lukeba
Castello Lukeba Defender
5
El Chadaille Bitshiabu
El Chadaille Bitshiabu Defender
35
Max Finkgräfe
Max Finkgräfe Defender
19
Kosta Nedeljković
Kosta Nedeljković Defender
24
Xaver Schlager
Xaver Schlager Midfielder
14
Christoph Baumgartner
Christoph Baumgartner Midfielder
13
Nicolas Seiwald
Nicolas Seiwald Midfielder
10
Brajan Gruda
Brajan Gruda Midfielder
6
Ezechiel Banzuzi
Ezechiel Banzuzi Midfielder
20
Forzan Assan Ouedraogo
Forzan Assan Ouedraogo Midfielder
33
Andrija Maksimović
Andrija Maksimović Midfielder
47
Viggo Gebel
Viggo Gebel Midfielder
37
Benno Valentin Kilan Kaltefleiter
Benno Valentin Kilan Kaltefleiter Midfielder
9
Johan Bakayoko
Johan Bakayoko Attacker
7
Antonio Eromonsele Nordby Nusa
Antonio Eromonsele Nordby Nusa Attacker
40
Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz
Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz Attacker
18
Sani Suleiman
Sani Suleiman Attacker
27
Tidiam Gomis
Tidiam Gomis Attacker
11
Conrad Harder
Conrad Harder Attacker
21
Ayodele Thomas
Ayodele Thomas Attacker
49
Yan Diomande
Yan Diomande Attacker
45
Samba Konate
Samba Konate Attacker

Squad ▼

25
Carl Klaus
Carl Klaus Goalkeeper
31
Matheo Raab
Matheo Raab Goalkeeper
1
Frederik Rønnow
Frederik Rønnow Goalkeeper
5
Danilho Doekhi
Danilho Doekhi Defender
28
Christopher Trimmel
Christopher Trimmel Defender
18
Josip Juranović
Josip Juranović Defender
4
Diogo Filipe Monteiro Pinto Leite
Diogo Filipe Monteiro Pinto Leite Defender
34
Stanley Nsoki
Stanley Nsoki Defender
39
Derrick Köhn
Derrick Köhn Defender
14
Leopold Querfeld
Leopold Querfeld Defender
15
Tom Rothe
Tom Rothe Defender
3
Andrik Markgraf
Andrik Markgraf Defender
8
Rani Khedira
Rani Khedira Midfielder
19
Janik Haberer
Janik Haberer Midfielder
33
Alex Král
Alex Král Midfielder
24
Robert Skov
Robert Skov Midfielder
13
András Schafer
András Schafer Midfielder
11
Woo-Yeong Jeong
Woo-Yeong Jeong Midfielder
6
Aljoscha Kemlein
Aljoscha Kemlein Midfielder
7
Oliver Burke
Oliver Burke Attacker
21
Tim Skarke
Tim Skarke Attacker
23
Andrej Ilić
Andrej Ilić Attacker
17
David Preu
David Preu Attacker
10
Ilyas Ansah
Ilyas Ansah Attacker
30
Dmytro Bohdanov
Dmytro Bohdanov Attacker
9
Livan Burcu
Livan Burcu Attacker
49
Linus Güther
Linus Güther Attacker

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward RB Leipzig holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give RB Leipzig a 15.1-point edge. External projection is RB Leipzig 68.7%, draw 19.7%, and FC Union Berlin 11.7%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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