Avellino vs Bari 1908 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi Fri, 24 Apr - 7:00 PM
Serie B
Avellino AVE
2 Winner 0
Bari 1908 BAR
Full Time Fri, 24 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Martin Palumbo - 79'
Michele Besaggio - 67'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Avellino claimed a 2-0 win against Bari 1908 in a match that remained goalless at halftime with the score 0-0. The home side asserted control with 60% possession compared to Bari's 40%, gradually building pressure that culminated in two second-half goals. No red cards were issued, allowing the game to flow without major disruptions. Avellino, identified as the stronger team pre-match, delivered a performance that aligned with expectations, showing structural discipline and efficiency. The result marked a significant deviation in favor of the home team, reflecting their dominance on the pitch. Without available xG data, the focus remains on observable metrics like possession and clean execution in attack. Bari struggled to convert limited opportunities, unable to challenge Avellino's defensive solidity.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Avellino's win showed a 49.9% significant structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data was unavailable for alignment analysis.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No major events like second-half adjustments impacted the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Manganiello

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Ricci

1st Assistant

M. Emmanuele

2nd Assistant

G. Collu

4th Official

Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
VS
Bari 1908 M. Longo
M. Longo
1.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mantova Rank: W
Catanzaro Rank: D
Palermo Rank: L
Sampdoria Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: W
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: L
Monza Rank: L
Modena Rank: W
Carrarese Rank: L
Frosinone Rank: L
Reggiana Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 4 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Avellino
50.12%
Draw
27.56%
Away Bari 1908
22.32%

Movement

Changes since opening
Avellino
-47.77%
Draw
+25.64%
Bari 1908
+22.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.15
17.51
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Avellino
Bari 1908
Power Score
24.15
17.51
League Position
8
17
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Bari 1908 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Avellino Bari 1908

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bari 1908

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Avellino ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bari 1908
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.83
26.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.38
32.83
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Avellino +0.62 Efficiency Index
vs
Bari 1908 -0.62 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Avellino
Bari 1908
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Avellino ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bari 1908
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Avellino Bari 1908
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Avellino Bari 1908
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Avellino
Bari 1908
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Avellino
vs
Bari 1908
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Avellino Bari 1908
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Avellino 0.53
Bari 1908 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Avellino Bari 1908
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Avellino 0.00
Bari 1908 0.06
Avellino
Bari 1908
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AVE had peak pressure around 68'.
  • BAR started the game with stronger pressure.
AVE Pressure BAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AVE reached the top pressure at 68' (80.26).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Avellino AVE Home
19 matches
Bari 1908 BAR Away
Match Record
5
Wins
10
4
Draws
4
10
Losses
5
Goals
20
Goals Scored
31
31
Goals Conceded
20
-11
Goal Difference
+11

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:02:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
A. Iannarilli
Italy
1 A. Iannarilli
T. Cancellotti
Italy
29 T. Cancellotti
P. Enrici
Italy
56 P. Enrici
A. Izzo
Italy
4 A. Izzo
A. Fontanarosa
Italy
63 A. Fontanarosa
D. Sounas
Substitution
Greece
24 D. Sounas
L. Palmiero
Italy
6 L. Palmiero
M. Besaggio
Substitution
Italy
39 M. Besaggio
M. Palumbo
Norway
20 M. Palumbo
C. Patierno
Substitution
Italy
9 C. Patierno
R. Russo
Substitution
Italy
10 R. Russo
Pitch
M. Cerofolini
Italy
31 M. Cerofolini
D. Nikolaou
Substitution
Greece
43 D. Nikolaou
C. Odenthal
Netherlands
26 C. Odenthal
V. Mantovani
Italy
13 V. Mantovani
K. Piscopo
Italy
28 K. Piscopo
M. Braunöder
Austria
27 M. Braunöder
G. Maggiore
Substitution
Italy
18 G. Maggiore
B. Manè
Substitution
Italy
30 B. Manè
E. Dorval
France
93 E. Dorval
E. Rao
Substitution
Italy
17 E. Rao
G. Moncini
Substitution
Italy
11 G. Moncini

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 24, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Capacity :
26542
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Gianluca Manganiello
Marco Ricci
Marco Emmanuele
Giuseppe Collu

Statistics

Possession
AVE
58%
BAR
42%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
7 Big Chances Created 0
10 Shots 6
34 Dangerous attacks 31
60 Possession 40
8 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
8 Goal Kicks 9
12 Throwins 19
12 Dribble Attempts 15
6 Successful Dribbles 4
4 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
86 Ball Safe 80
13 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

5 Big Chances Missed 0
67 Attacks 58

Possession

37 Successful Long Passes 24
413 Successful Passes 257
63 Long Passes 46
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
84 Successful Passes Percentage 79
490 Passes 326
11 Key Passes 8

Defensive

58 Duels Won 56
6 Interceptions 3
17 Tackles 9
0 Saves 5

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 20
3 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
13 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Starting XI ▼

1
Antony Iannarilli
Antony Iannarilli Goalkeeper
6.75
4
Armando Izzo
Armando Izzo Defender
7.17
29
Tommaso Cancellotti
Tommaso Cancellotti Defender
6.68
56
Patrick Enrici
Patrick Enrici Defender
6.67
63
Alessandro Fontanarosa
Alessandro Fontanarosa Defender
6.75
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero Midfielder
6.81
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo Midfielder
6.84
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Midfielder
6.96
27
Andréa Le Borgne
Andréa Le Borgne
Midfielder90+4'
6.38
39
Michele Besaggio
Michele Besaggio Midfielder
6.77
2
Filippo Missori
Filippo Missori
Defender86'
6.81
9
Cosimo Patierno
Cosimo Patierno Attacker
6.61
99
Andrea Favilli
Andrea Favilli
Attacker71'
6.64
10
Raffaele Russo
Raffaele Russo Attacker
6.8
7
Gennaro Tutino
Gennaro Tutino
Attacker86'
6.56
Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Starting XI ▼

31
Michele Cerofolini
Michele Cerofolini Goalkeeper
7.05
13
Valerio Mantovani
Valerio Mantovani Defender
6.57
26
Cas Odenthal
Cas Odenthal Defender
6.81
43
Dimitrios Nikolaou
Dimitrios Nikolaou Defender
6.66
10
Nicola Bellomo
Nicola Bellomo
Midfielder80'
6.62
18
Giulio Maggiore
Giulio Maggiore Midfielder
6.8
80
Federico Artioli
Federico Artioli
Midfielder80'
7.28
27
Matthias Braunöder
Matthias Braunöder Midfielder
6.77
28
Kevin Piscopo
Kevin Piscopo Midfielder
6.8
30
Moussa Mané
Moussa Mané Midfielder
6.59
49
Giacomo De Pieri
Giacomo De Pieri
Midfielder46'
6.62
11
Gabriele Moncini
Gabriele Moncini Attacker
6.75
90
Marvin Cuni
Marvin Cuni
Attacker66'
6.66
17
Emanuele Rao
Emanuele Rao Attacker
6.83
9
Christian Gytkjaer
Christian Gytkjaer
Attacker66'
6.62
93
Mehdi Dorval
Mehdi Dorval Attacker
6.79

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andréa Le Borgne → Dimitrios Sounas
9th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Gennaro Tutino → Raffaele Russo
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Filippo Missori → Michele Besaggio
7th Substitution
86'
81'
Event
Federico Artioli
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Federico Artioli → Giulio Maggiore
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Nicola Bellomo → Dimitrios Nikolaou
6th Substitution
Event
Martin Palumbo
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
79'
Event
Luca Palmiero
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
72'
Event
Andrea Favilli → Cosimo Patierno
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Michele Besaggio
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
67'
66'
Event
Christian Gytkjaer → Emanuele Rao
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Marvin Cuni → Gabriele Moncini
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Giacomo De Pieri → Moussa Mané
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Moussa Mané
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Cosimo Patierno
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
11'
Event
5th Yellowcard
11'

CONCLUSION

Avellino's 2-0 triumph over Bari 1908 underscored their superiority, converting second-half dominance into goals after a level first half. With 60% possession and no concessions, they maintained structural integrity against a resilient Bari side holding 40% of the ball. The significant deviation highlighted Avellino's execution edge, while market alignment confirmed pre-match favoritism. Lacking xG insights, the result hinged on tangible control and efficiency consistency. This victory bolsters Avellino's standing, demonstrating balanced play without reliance on chaotic events or cards.

Avellino vs Bari 1908 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.