Malmö FF vs Sirius Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Malmö Stadion Thu, 23 Apr - 5:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Malmö FF MAL
Versus
Sirius SIR
KICKOFF : Thu, 23 Apr - 5:00 PM
Round 4 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Malmö FF host Sirius in Allsvenskan (Regular Season) at Malmö Stadion. Domestically, Malmö FF sit 4th in the table while Sirius are 1th. Power ranking favours Sirius by 19.8 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Sirius lead Allsvenskan in 1st place over 4th-placed Malmö FF with 19.8-point power advantage.
  • Form: Sirius outperform in form at 48.11 score versus Malmö FF's 27.11.
  • Squad: Sirius possess higher power score of 44.44 against Malmö FF's 24.6.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable.
  • Transition: Transition metrics not provided.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable with low confidence and proxy usage.
  • xVariable: xG variables inaccessible due to lack of data.
  • Market: Projection split: Malmö FF 44.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.7% (Δ+0%) | Sirius 29.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Malmö FF M. Ramírez
M. Ramírez
VS
Sirius A. Engelmark
A. Engelmark
1.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Djurgården Rank: W
GAIS Rank: W
Örgryte Rank: D
GAIS Rank: W
Häcken Rank: D
Hammarby Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Västerås SK Rank: W
Hammarby Rank: W
Degerfors Rank: W
Värnamo Rank: W
Norrköping Rank: W
Elfsborg Rank: W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 3 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Malmö FF
44.58%
Draw
25.69%
Away Sirius
29.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.6
44.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Malmö FF
Sirius
Power Score
24.6
44.44
League Position
4
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Malmö FF — Opponent-weighted form score
Sirius — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Malmö FF Sirius

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Malmö FF MAL Home
18 matches
Sirius SIR Away
Match Record
12
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
12
Goals
50
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
50
+28
Goal Difference
-28
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T01:07:27+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
R. Olsen
1 R. Olsen
J. Larsen
17 J. Larsen
B. Kurtulus
4 B. Kurtulus
C. Rosler
19 C. Rosler
G. Dal Toé Busanello
25 G. Dal Toé Busanello
T. Ali
22 T. Ali
O. Rosengren
7 O. Rosengren
T. Lundbergh
47 T. Lundbergh
O. Sjöstrand
24 O. Sjöstrand
S. Haksabanovic
29 S. Haksabanovic
E. Botheim
20 E. Botheim
D. Celic
34 D. Celic
O. Krusnell
22 O. Krusnell
T. Anker
4 T. Anker
M. Soumah
2 M. Soumah
H. Castegren
5 H. Castegren
M. Heier
10 M. Heier
M. Nartey
8 M. Nartey
M. Lindberg
6 M. Lindberg
I. Bjerkebo
11 I. Bjerkebo
R. Ure
9 R. Ure
O. Jönsson
17 O. Jönsson

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 23, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium
Malmö Stadion
Capacity
22500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Robin Olsen
Robin Olsen Goalkeeper
7.39
24
Oscar Sjöstrand
Oscar Sjöstrand Midfielder
6.9
22
Taha Ali
Taha Ali Midfielder
6.83
29
Sead Haksabanovic
Sead Haksabanovic Attacker
7.14
20
Erik Botheim
Erik Botheim Attacker
7.1
19
Colin Rösler
Colin Rösler Left Back
7.13
4
Bleon Kurtulus
Bleon Kurtulus Right Back
6.59
17
Jens Stryger Larsen
Jens Stryger Larsen Right Back
6.79
47
Theodor Lundbergh
Theodor Lundbergh Central Midfield
6.71
7
Otto Rosengren
Otto Rosengren Central Midfield
7.58
25
Busanello
Busanello Left Back
6.74

Starting XI ▼

34
David Celic
David Celic Goalkeeper
6.95
11
Isak Bjerkebo
Isak Bjerkebo Attacker
7.64
17
Neo Jönsson
Neo Jönsson Attacker
6.6
9
Robbie Ure
Robbie Ure Centre Forward
7.33
6
Marcus Lindberg
Marcus Lindberg Central Midfield
6.92
8
Matthias Nartey
Matthias Nartey Central Midfield
6.8
5
Henrik Castegren
Henrik Castegren Right Back
7.19
2
Mohamed Soumah
Mohamed Soumah Right Back
4
Tobias Anker
Tobias Anker Left Back
7.71
10
Melker Heier
Melker Heier Central Midfield
6.81
22
Oscar Krusnell
Oscar Krusnell Left Back
6.98

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Sirius holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Sirius a 19.8-point edge. External projection is Malmö FF 44.6%, draw 25.7%, and Sirius 29.7%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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