PSV vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Philips Stadion Thu, 23 Apr - 7:00 PM
Eredivisie
PSV PSV
Versus
PEC Zwolle PEC
KICKOFF : Thu, 23 Apr - 7:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

PSV Eindhoven hosts PEC Zwolle at the Philips Stadion in an Eredivisie regular season encounter during the 2025/2026 campaign. Leading the league from first place, PSV wields a formidable power score of 39.07 at home, dwarfing Zwolle's 20.6 and granting an 18.5-point advantage that marks them as the stronger side. Form metrics further tilt the scales, with PSV's 28.33 rating outpacing Zwolle's modest 14.72 amid their 13th-place standing. This matchup pits title contenders against mid-table battlers, where the hosts seek to solidify dominance on familiar turf. Detailed insights into efficiency, transitions, and set pieces remain elusive due to unavailable xG data and low-confidence proxies. Nonetheless, structural edges in power and positioning suggest PSV will dictate proceedings in a lopsided affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural: PSV commands an 18.5-point power advantage over PEC Zwolle, topping the Eredivisie while visitors sit 13th.
  • Form: Hosts PSV arrive with a 28.33 form score, significantly ahead of PEC Zwolle's 14.72.
  • Squad: PSV's home squad power rates at 39.07, contrasting sharply with PEC Zwolle's away mark of 20.6.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for this Eredivisie fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data absent from current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with proxy usage for both PSV and PEC Zwolle.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable as metadata indicates no add-on enabled.
  • Market: PSV 78.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 13.9% (Δ+0%) | PEC Zwolle 7.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
PSV P. Bosz
P. Bosz
VS
PEC Zwolle Henry van der Vegt
Henry van der Vegt
2.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.24
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: W
FC Utrecht Rank: W
Telstar Rank: L
NEC Nijmegen Rank: L
AZ Rank: W
Heracles Almelo Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Excelsior Rank: D
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: L
NAC Breda Rank: W
FC Groningen Rank: D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: D
Ajax Rank: D
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 1 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home PSV
78.44%
Draw
13.87%
Away PEC Zwolle
7.69%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
39.07
20.6
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
PSV
PEC Zwolle
Power Score
39.07
20.6
League Position
1
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
PSV — Opponent-weighted form score
PEC Zwolle — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) PSV PEC Zwolle

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

PSV PSV Home
25 matches
PEC Zwolle PEC Away
Match Record
21
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
21
Goals
77
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
77
+53
Goal Difference
-53
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T01:07:50+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Kovář
32 M. Kovář
K. Sildillia
25 K. Sildillia
R. Flamingo
6 R. Flamingo
Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
M. Ferreira dos Santos
17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
D. Man
27 D. Man
J. van den Berg
35 J. van den Berg
G. Til
20 G. Til
I. Saibari Ben El Basra
34 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
I. Perišić
5 I. Perišić
R. Pepi
9 R. Pepi
T. de Graaff
16 T. de Graaff
S. Floranus
2 S. Floranus
A. McNulty
4 A. McNulty
S. Graves Jensen
28 S. Graves Jensen
O. Aertssen
3 O. Aertssen
Z. Buurmeester
8 Z. Buurmeester
R. Thomas
30 R. Thomas
O. Velanas
18 O. Velanas
T. Oosting
25 T. Oosting
Y. Namli
9 Y. Namli
K. Kostons
10 K. Kostons

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 23, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Philips Stadion
Capacity
36500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

32
Matej Kovar
Matej Kovar Goalkeeper
6.82
9
Ricardo Pepi
Ricardo Pepi Centre Forward
7.13
25
Kiliann Sildillia
Kiliann Sildillia Right Back
6.75
6
Ryan Flamingo
Ryan Flamingo Right Back
6.78
3
Yarek Gasiorowski
Yarek Gasiorowski Left Back
6.91
17
Mauro Júnior
Mauro Júnior Left Back
7.25
27
Dennis Man
Dennis Man Defensive Midfield
7.01
35
Joël van den Berg
Joël van den Berg Defensive Midfield
6.67
20
Guus Til
Guus Til Right Wing
7.2
34
Ismael Saibari
Ismael Saibari Attacking Midfield
7.48
5
Ivan Perišić
Ivan Perišić Left Wing
7.3

Starting XI ▼

16
Tom de Graaff
Tom de Graaff Goalkeeper
6.92
10
Koen Kostons
Koen Kostons Centre Forward
7.02
3
Olivier Aertssen
Olivier Aertssen Right Back
6.56
28
Simon Graves
Simon Graves Right Back
6.83
4
Anselmo García MacNulty
Anselmo García MacNulty Left Back
6.69
2
Sherel Floranus
Sherel Floranus Left Back
6.61
30
Ryan Thomas
Ryan Thomas Defensive Midfield
6.93
8
Zico Buurmeester
Zico Buurmeester Defensive Midfield
6.36
9
Younes Namli
Younes Namli Right Wing
7.26
25
Thijs Oosting
Thijs Oosting Attacking Midfield
6.81
18
Odysseus Velanas
Odysseus Velanas Left Wing
6.85

CONCLUSION

PSV's overwhelming structural superiority, bolstered by top form and league position, positions them to overwhelm PEC Zwolle convincingly at Philips Stadion. The 18.5-point power gap and home advantage amplify expectations of a routine victory for the leaders. While granular data on set pieces, efficiency, and transitions lags, core metrics paint a clear picture of dominance. Zwolle faces an uphill battle to disrupt the hosts' rhythm, likely conceding control early. This clash underscores PSV's championship pedigree against mid-table resistance.

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