Elche vs Atlético Madrid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero Wed, 22 Apr - 5:00 PM
La Liga
Elche ELC
Versus
Atlético Madrid ATM
KICKOFF : Wed, 22 Apr - 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Elche host Atlético Madrid in La Liga (Regular Season) at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero. Domestically, Elche sit 18th in the table while Atlético Madrid are 4th. Power ranking favours Atlético Madrid by 7.2 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Atlético Madrid enters as the stronger side, holding 4th in La Liga versus Elche's 18th and a 7.2-point power score edge.
  • Form: Visitors showcase superior momentum with a 19.67 form score compared to Elche's 14.67.
  • Squad: Atlético's higher power rating of 28.12 reflects deeper squad quality over Elche's 20.91.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics remain unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Balanced transition dynamics expected given power disparities and league standings.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats unavailable due to low confidence and proxy data usage for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG data absent, limiting advanced performance insights.
  • Market: Elche 38.3% (Δ-0.2%) | Draw 24.7% (Δ-0.1%) | Atlético Madrid 36.9% (Δ+0.3%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Elche E. Sarabia Armesto
E. Sarabia Armesto
VS
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
0.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.86
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Valencia Rank: W
Rayo Vallecano Rank: L
Mallorca Rank: W
Real Madrid Rank: L
Villarreal Rank: L
Espanyol Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sevilla Rank: L
FC Barcelona Rank: L
Real Madrid Rank: L
Getafe Rank: W
Real Sociedad Rank: W
Real Oviedo Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 11
11
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Elche
38.33%
Draw
24.73%
Away Atlético Madrid
36.94%

Movement

Changes since opening
Elche
-0.24%
Draw
-0.05%
Atlético Madrid
+0.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.91
28.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Elche
Atlético Madrid
Power Score
20.91
28.12
League Position
18
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Elche — Opponent-weighted form score
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Elche Atlético Madrid

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Elche ELC Home
14 matches
Atlético Madrid ATM Away
Match Record
1
Wins
11
2
Draws
2
11
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
4
-23
Goal Difference
+23
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T02:02:35+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Dituro
1 M. Dituro
A. Sangaré Traoré
42 A. Sangaré Traoré
D. Affengruber
22 D. Affengruber
L. Pétrot
21 L. Pétrot
J. Morente Oliva
15 J. Morente Oliva
G. Villar del Fraile
12 G. Villar del Fraile
M. Carvalho Neto
16 M. Carvalho Neto
A. Febas Pérez
14 A. Febas Pérez
G. Karabinaite
11 G. Karabinaite
A. Valente Silva
9 A. Valente Silva
R. Mir Vicente
10 R. Mir Vicente
J. Musso
1 J. Musso
J. Del Romo
34 J. Del Romo
D. Martinez Moreno
30 D. Martinez Moreno
M. Pubill Pagès
18 M. Pubill Pagès
J. Franco
32 J. Franco
T. Almada
11 T. Almada
O. Vaargas
21 O. Vaargas
R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
R. Belaid Khellil
29 R. Belaid Khellil
A. Sørloth
9 A. Sørloth
A. Rodríguez
10 A. Rodríguez

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 22, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Capacity
31388
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Matías Dituro
Matías Dituro Goalkeeper
7.2
11
Germán Valera
Germán Valera Midfielder
7.01
15
Tete Morente
Tete Morente Midfielder
6.76
9
André Silva
André Silva Attacker
6.84
10
Rafa Mir
Rafa Mir Attacker
6.85
12
Gonzalo Villar
Gonzalo Villar Central Midfield
6.53
14
Aleix Febas
Aleix Febas Central Midfield
7.07
16
Martim Neto
Martim Neto Central Midfield
6.82
21
Léo Pétrot
Léo Pétrot Left Back
6.66
22
David Affengruber
David Affengruber Centre Back
6.85
42
Buba Sangaré
Buba Sangaré Right Back
6.44

Starting XI ▼

1
Juan Musso
Juan Musso Goalkeeper
7.11
11
Thiago Almada
Thiago Almada Midfielder
6.87
29
Rayane Belaid
Rayane Belaid Midfielder
6.26
9
Alexander Sørloth
Alexander Sørloth Attacker
6.78
10
Álex Baena
Álex Baena Attacker
6.97
4
Rodrigo Mendoza
Rodrigo Mendoza Central Midfield
6.61
18
Marc Pubill
Marc Pubill Right Back
7.12
21
Obed Vargas
Obed Vargas Central Midfield
6.66
30
Daniel Martínez
Daniel Martínez Left Back
6.16
32
Javier Boñar
Javier Boñar Right Back
7.17
34
Julio Díaz
Julio Díaz Left Back
7.02

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Atlético Madrid holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Atlético Madrid a 7.2-point edge. External projection is Elche 38%, draw 24.7%, and Atlético Madrid 37.3%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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