Burnley vs Manchester City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Turf Moor Wed, 22 Apr - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Burnley BUR
0 Winner 1
Manchester City MCI
Full Time Wed, 22 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Manchester City claimed a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Burnley at Turf Moor, extending their strong form despite a resilient home defense. The decisive goal arrived in the first half, establishing a 0-1 halftime lead that Burnley could not overturn. City controlled proceedings with 65% possession compared to Burnley's 35%, generating sustained pressure but struggling to convert chances into further goals. Burnley's compact setup frustrated the visitors, forcing a gritty rather than fluid performance from the stronger side. No red cards disrupted the flow, and the second half saw no major tactical shifts, with both teams maintaining their approaches. The result underscores City's efficiency in tight contests, aligning with their status as the dominant force while highlighting Burnley's stubborn resistance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Manchester City exhibited a significant 18.3% structural deviation in their performance.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Madley

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Meredith

1st Assistant

C. Taylor

2nd Assistant

A. Herczeg

4th Official

Burnley S. Parker
S. Parker
VS
Manchester City Josep Guardiola
Josep Guardiola
0.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.13
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nottingham Forest Rank: L
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: L
Fulham Rank: L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: D
Everton Rank: L
Brentford Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arsenal Rank: W
Chelsea Rank: W
West Ham United Rank: D
Nottingham Forest Rank: D
Leeds United Rank: W
Newcastle United Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 19
19

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Burnley
6.07%
Draw
12.23%
Away Manchester City
81.7%

Movement

Changes since opening
Burnley
+5.88%
Draw
+8.53%
Manchester City
-14.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
13.18
38.15
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Burnley
Manchester City
Power Score
13.18
38.15
League Position
19
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Burnley — Opponent-weighted form score
Manchester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Burnley Manchester City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Burnley

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Manchester City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Burnley ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Manchester City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.71
50.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
50.15
28.71
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Burnley -2.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Manchester City +2.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Burnley
Manchester City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Burnley ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Manchester City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Burnley Manchester City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Burnley Manchester City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Burnley
Manchester City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Burnley
vs
Manchester City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Burnley Manchester City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Burnley 0.43
Manchester City 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Burnley Manchester City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Burnley 0.01
Manchester City 0.00
Burnley
Manchester City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MCI had peak pressure around 62'.
  • MCI started the game with stronger pressure.
BUR Pressure MCI Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MCI reached the top pressure at 62' (83.50).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Burnley BUR Home
23 matches
Manchester City MCI Away
Match Record
1
Wins
19
3
Draws
3
19
Losses
1
Goals
14
Goals Scored
74
74
Goals Conceded
14
-60
Goal Difference
+60

Data last updated: 2026-04-23T00:04:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Dúbravka
Slovakia
1 M. Dúbravka
K. Walker
England
2 K. Walker
B. Humphreys
Substitution
England
12 B. Humphreys
H. Ekdal
Sweden
18 H. Ekdal
M. Esteve
France
5 M. Esteve
Q. Hartman
Netherlands
3 Q. Hartman
L. Tchaouna
Substitution
France
17 L. Tchaouna
J. Ward-Prowse
England
20 J. Ward-Prowse
J. Laurent
Substitution
England
29 J. Laurent
J. Anthony
Substitution
England
11 J. Anthony
Z. Flemming
Substitution
Netherlands
19 Z. Flemming
Pitch
G. Donnarumma
Italy
25 G. Donnarumma
R. Aït Nouri
Substitution
Algeria
21 R. Aït Nouri
M. Guehi
England
15 M. Guehi
A. Khusanov
Uzbekistan
45 A. Khusanov
M. Nunes
Portugal
27 M. Nunes
N. O'Reilly
England
33 N. O'Reilly
B. Silva
Portugal
20 B. Silva
J. Doku
Belgium
11 J. Doku
M. Cherki
France
10 M. Cherki
A. Semenyo
Substitution
Ghana
42 A. Semenyo
E. Haaland
Norway
9 E. Haaland

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 22, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Turf Moor
Capacity :
22546
Attendance :
21259
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Steve Meredith
Craig Taylor
Andrew Madley
Adam Herczeg

Statistics

Possession
BUR
37%
MCI
63%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 28
21 Dangerous attacks 92
35 Possession 65
3 Corners 11
12 Free kicks 14

Match Overview

1 Injuries 0
5 Goal Attempts 16
10 Goal Kicks 3
63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 41
5 Successful Dribbles 11
0 Hit Woodwork 2
0 Assists 1
71 Ball Safe 81
8 Successful Headers 10
8 Dribble Attempts 27
10 Throwins 16
5 Substitutions 2

Attacking

67 Attacks 142
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

277 Successful Passes 605
79 Successful Passes Percentage 90
19 Successful Long Passes 13
60 Long Passes 28
350 Passes 671
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
6 Key Passes 23

Defensive

24 Tackles 11
8 Saves 1
48 Duels Won 42
12 Interceptions 13

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 12
2 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

10 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Andrew Madley

Starting XI ▼

1
Martin Dúbravka
Martin Dúbravka Goalkeeper
6.83
2
Kyle Walker
Kyle Walker Defender
6.52
3
Quilindschy Hartman
Quilindschy Hartman Defender
6.73
5
Maxime Estève
Maxime Estève Defender
6.65
12
Bashir Humphreys
Bashir Humphreys Defender
6.82
16
Florentino
Florentino
Midfielder82'
6.67
18
Hjalmar Ekdal
Hjalmar Ekdal Defender
6.66
11
Jaidon Anthony
Jaidon Anthony Midfielder
6.83
31
Mike Tresor
Mike Tresor
Attacker87'
6.53
17
Loum Tchaouna
Loum Tchaouna Midfielder
6.55
9
Lyle Foster
Lyle Foster
Attacker72'
6.6
20
James Ward-Prowse
James Ward-Prowse Midfielder
6.82
29
Josh Laurent
Josh Laurent Midfielder
6.49
10
Marcus Edwards
Marcus Edwards
Attacker87'
6.67
19
Zian Flemming
Zian Flemming Attacker
6.87
27
Armando Broja
Armando Broja
Attacker82'
6.45
Referee : Andrew Madley

Starting XI ▼

25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper
6.9
15
Marc Guéhi
Marc Guéhi Defender
7.04
21
Rayan Aït-Nouri
Rayan Aït-Nouri Defender
6.86
14
Nico González
Nico González
Midfielder65'
6.94
27
Matheus Nunes
Matheus Nunes Defender
7.09
45
Abdukodir Khusanov
Abdukodir Khusanov Defender
6.85
10
Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki Midfielder
7.31
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku Midfielder
7.07
20
Bernardo Silva
Bernardo Silva Midfielder
6.93
33
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Midfielder
6.95
42
Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo Midfielder
7
26
Savinho
Savinho
Attacker65'
6.6
9
Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland Attacker
7.35

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mike Tresor → Jaidon Anthony
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Marcus Edwards → Josh Laurent
6th Substitution
87'
Event
Florentino → Bashir Humphreys
5th Substitution
82'
Event
Armando Broja → Zian Flemming
4th Substitution
82'
Event
Lyle Foster → Loum Tchaouna
3rd Substitution
72'
65'
Event
Nico González → Rayan Aït-Nouri
1st Substitution
65'
Event
Savinho → Antoine Semenyo
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
5'
Event
Erling Haaland
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

88
Update Update
Offside called against Burnley. Armando Broja is offside.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Marcus Edwards replaces Josh Laurent.
87
Update Update
Armando Broja from Burnley won a free kick on the right wing.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Marc Guéhi against Manchester City.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Mike Trésor replaces Jaidon Anthony.
86
Attempt Attempt
Nico González from Manchester City misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Quilindschy Hartman concedes.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Erling Haaland of Manchester City.
84
Update Update
James Ward-Prowse from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
84
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Cherki's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Matheus Nunes provided the assist.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Armando Broja replaces Zian Flemming.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Florentino replaces Bashir Humphreys.
82
Update Update
Jérémy Doku of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
82
Update Update
Kyle Walker fouled a Burnley player.
80
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Erling Haaland from Manchester City shot with his right foot from the center of the box.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Maxime Estève concedes.
77
Update Update
Offside called against Burnley. Jaidon Anthony is offside.
76
Update Update
Offside called against Burnley. Jaidon Anthony is offside.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by James Ward-Prowse against Burnley.
74
Update Update
Jérémy Doku of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
73
Update Update
James Ward-Prowse from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
73
Update Update
Nico O'Reilly fouled a Manchester City player.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Lyle Foster replaces Loum Tchaouna.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Zian Flemming concedes.
71
Corner Corner
Rayan Cherki from Manchester City had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but missing to the left. The assist came from Bernardo Silva after a corner.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after a concession by Martin Dúbravka.
70
Update Update
Savinho from Manchester City attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the right side of the box, but Martin Dúbravka, the Burnley goalkeeper, saves it in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Marc Guéhi.
68
Update Update
Zian Flemming from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by Abdukodir Khusanov of Manchester City.
66
Update Update
Nico González from Manchester City won a free kick in the attacking area.
66
Update Update
Fouled by Zian Flemming of Burnley.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Savinho replaces Antoine Semenyo.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Nico González replaces Rayan Aït-Nouri.
64
Update Update
Foul committed by Jérémy Doku of Manchester City.
64
Update Update
Kyle Walker of Burnley won a free kick in defense.
61
Attempt Attempt
James Ward-Prowse's shot for Burnley from outside the box is blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Quilindschy Hartman from Burnley shot with his left foot from outside the box.
60
Update Update
Fouled by Nico O'Reilly of Manchester City.
60
Update Update
Zian Flemming from Burnley won a free kick in an attacking position.
59
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Jérémy Doku from Manchester City shot with his right foot from outside the box.
55
Attempt Attempt
Erling Haaland from Manchester City hits the left post with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
51
Attempt Attempt
Loum Tchaouna's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
50
Corner Corner
Burnley wins a corner after Matheus Nunes concedes.
49
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Semenyo from Manchester City misses a chance with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
48
Update Update
Marc Guéhi of Manchester City won a free kick in the attacking area.
48
Update Update
Loum Tchaouna of Burnley commits a foul.
47
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Semenyo's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Rayan Cherki provided the assist.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Burnley 0, Manchester City 1.
45
Update Update
James Ward-Prowse from Burnley won a free kick on the right wing.
45
Update Update
Foul by Nico O'Reilly for Manchester City.
45
Corner Corner
Burnley is awarded a corner after Abdukodir Khusanov concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the match at Burnley 0, Manchester City 1.
43
Update Update
James Ward-Prowse from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Rayan Cherki against Manchester City.
43
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Rayan Aït-Nouri from Manchester City takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved.
42
Update Update
Nico O'Reilly of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
42
Update Update
Fouled by Zian Flemming of Burnley.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after being conceded by Maxime Estève.
40
Update Update
Zian Flemming from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Erling Haaland of Manchester City.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Josh Laurent concedes.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Jérémy Doku of Manchester City.
38
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Rayan Aït-Nouri from Manchester City shot with his right foot from the left side of the box.
35
Update Update
Maxime Estève from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
34
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Jérémy Doku from Manchester City.
31
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Martin Dúbravka from Burnley.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Quilindschy Hartman concedes.
29
Update Update
Zian Flemming from Burnley misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, sending it high and wide to the left. Loum Tchaouna provided the assist after a fast break.
28
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Nico O'Reilly from Manchester City shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but Martin Dúbravka from Burnley saves it in the left corner. The assist was provided by Rayan Cherki.
26
Update Update
Nico O'Reilly from Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Josh Laurent of Burnley.
25
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Rayan Cherki from Manchester City takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved in the left corner. The assist comes from Rayan Aït-Nouri.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Zian Flemming concedes.
25
Corner Corner
Nico O'Reilly of Manchester City attempts a header from a difficult position on the left, but Martin Dúbravka of Burnley makes a save in the left corner. The assist comes from Rayan Aït-Nouri's cross.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Hjalmar Ekdal concedes.
23
Update Update
Rayan Cherki from Manchester City won a free kick in the attacking area.
23
Update Update
Foul by Josh Laurent for Burnley.
20
Update Update
Rayan Cherki of Manchester City won a free kick in the attacking position.
20
Attempt Attempt
Bernardo Silva's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
20
Update Update
Offside called against Manchester City. Erling Haaland is offside.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Josh Laurent of Burnley.
19
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Cherki's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Bernardo Silva provided the assist.
18
Update Update
Offside called against Burnley. Zian Flemming is offside.
16
Attempt Attempt
Zian Flemming from Burnley had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box but missing to the left. The assist was provided by Kyle Walker.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Loum Tchaouna of Burnley.
13
Update Update
Rayan Aït-Nouri from Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
9
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Cherki's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Bernardo Silva provided the assist.
8
Attempt Attempt
Erling Haaland's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Rayan Cherki provided the assist.
8
Corner Corner
Manchester City win a corner after Maxime Estève concedes.
7
Attempt Attempt
Quilindschy Hartman from Burnley has his right-footed shot from the center of the box blocked. The assist was made by Jaidon Anthony.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester City takes the lead 1-0 against Burnley. Erling Haaland scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Jérémy Doku's through ball.
4
Corner Corner
Rayan Cherki of Manchester City attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Martin Dúbravka of Burnley makes a save in the top right corner. The assist was provided by Antoine Semenyo.
4
Update Update
Nico O'Reilly from Manchester City misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, but the ball goes high.
3
Update Update
Bashir Humphreys is flagged for offside for Burnley.
3
Update Update
Offside called against Burnley. Bashir Humphreys is in an offside position.
2
Attempt Attempt
Bernardo Silva's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Rayan Cherki provided the assist.
1
Update Update
Loum Tchaouna of Burnley commits a foul.
1
Update Update
Marc Guéhi of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.

CONCLUSION

Manchester City's 1-0 win at Burnley reinforces their reliability against lower-table opposition, converting first-half dominance into three points despite limited second-half breakthroughs. Burnley's defensive discipline earned respect, restricting the scoreline while enduring 65% possession disadvantage. With no disruptions from cards or shifts, the result reflects City's structural edge and market-favored status, though the narrow margin hints at vulnerabilities in finishing. This outcome bolsters City's title aspirations, providing a platform for upcoming fixtures amid a schedule demanding consistency.

Burnley vs Manchester City preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Premier League, England View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Jesper GK

Jesper GK contributes football previews covering key fixtures, league context, team news, and matchday talking points.