Athletic Club vs Osasuna Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
San Mamés Barria Tue, 21 Apr - 5:00 PM
La Liga
Athletic Club ATH
Versus
Osasuna OSA
KICKOFF : Tue, 21 Apr - 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Athletic Club are preparing to play Osasuna in a La Liga regular season match, with the game taking place at San Mamés Barria in the 2025/2026 season. According to the latest standings, the home side sits in 11th position in the league, with the away side occupying 9th place. When it comes to current season form, Athletic Club's reads W1 D1 L4 from 6 matches. This form comes on the back of their last outing, a Loss at home to Villarreal. The away team Osasuna has a season form that reads W1 D3 L2 from 6 matches. That record follows on from a Draw at home to Real Betis in their previous fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Osasuna hold a +3 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Osasuna sit below baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Athletic Club show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Osasuna have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Osasuna carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Osasuna hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Athletic Club 51.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.1% (Δ+0%) | Osasuna 21% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Athletic Club E. Valverde
E. Valverde
VS
Osasuna A. Lisci
A. Lisci
1.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Villarreal Rank: L
Getafe Rank: L
Real Betis Rank: W
Girona Rank: L
FC Barcelona Rank: L
Rayo Vallecano Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Betis Rank: D
Deportivo Alavés Rank: D
Girona Rank: W
Real Sociedad Rank: L
Mallorca Rank: D
Valencia Rank: L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 11 - 10
10
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Athletic Club
51.91%
Draw
27.09%
Away Osasuna
21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.89
23.91
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Athletic Club
Osasuna
Power Score
20.89
23.91
League Position
11
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Athletic Club — Opponent-weighted form score
Osasuna — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Athletic Club Osasuna

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Athletic Club ATH Home
38 matches
Osasuna OSA Away
Match Record
17
Wins
10
11
Draws
11
10
Losses
17
Goals
50
Goals Scored
36
36
Goals Conceded
50
+14
Goal Difference
-14
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T02:17:49+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
U. Simón Mendibil
1 U. Simón Mendibil
Í. Lekue Martínez
15 Í. Lekue Martínez
D. Vivian Moreno
3 D. Vivian Moreno
A. Laporte
14 A. Laporte
Y. Berchiche Izeta
17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
M. Jauregizar Alboniga
18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
I. Williams Arthuer
9 I. Williams Arthuer
O. Sancet Tirapu
8 O. Sancet Tirapu
N. Williams Arthuer
10 N. Williams Arthuer
G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
S. Herrera Pirón
1 S. Herrera Pirón
J. Galán Gil
20 J. Galán Gil
Á. Cruz Armada
3 Á. Cruz Armada
J. Herrando Oroz
5 J. Herrando Oroz
V. Rosier
19 V. Rosier
I. Muñoz Cameros
8 I. Muñoz Cameros
J. Moncayola Tollar
7 J. Moncayola Tollar
V. Muñoz Villanueva
21 V. Muñoz Villanueva
A. Oroz
10 A. Oroz
R. García Santos
14 R. García Santos
A. Budimir
17 A. Budimir

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 21, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
San Mamés Barria
Capacity
53289
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
6.76
11
Gorka Guruzeta
Gorka Guruzeta Centre Forward
6.88
3
Dani Vivian
Dani Vivian Right Back
6.72
8
Oihan Sancet
Oihan Sancet Attacking Midfield
6.68
9
Iñaki Williams
Iñaki Williams Right Wing
6.68
10
Nico Williams
Nico Williams Left Wing
6.84
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Left Back
6.89
18
Mikel Jauregizar
Mikel Jauregizar Defensive Midfield
6.83
15
Iñigo Lekue
Iñigo Lekue Right Back
6.07
16
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta Defensive Midfield
6.83
17
Yuri Berchiche
Yuri Berchiche Left Back
6.93

Starting XI ▼

1
Sergio Herrera
Sergio Herrera Goalkeeper
6.94
17
Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir Centre Forward
7.11
3
Juan Cruz
Juan Cruz Left Back
6.51
5
Jorge Herrando
Jorge Herrando Right Back
6.62
7
Jon Moncayola
Jon Moncayola Defensive Midfield
6.83
8
Iker Muñoz
Iker Muñoz Defensive Midfield
6.64
10
Aimar Oroz
Aimar Oroz Attacking Midfield
6.84
14
Rubén García
Rubén García Right Wing
6.91
19
Valentin Rosier
Valentin Rosier Right Back
6.65
20
Javi Galán
Javi Galán Left Back
6.52
21
Víctor Muñoz
Víctor Muñoz Left Wing
6.76

CONCLUSION

Osasuna holds the stronger pre-match profile with a power advantage of 3 points. The projection leader is Athletic Club, but this diverges from the structural signals that favor Osasuna. Athletic Club currently sits in 11th place with a form record of W1 D1 L4 from 6 matches after a home loss to Villarreal, while Osasuna is in 9th with W1 D3 L2 from 6 matches following a home draw against Real Betis. Execution on set pieces will be key for the home side to challenge effectively. .

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