Athletic Club vs Osasuna Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
San Mamés Barria Tue, 21 Apr - 5:00 PM
La Liga
Athletic Club ATH
1 Winner 0
Osasuna OSA
Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Gorka Guruzeta - 16'
Goal
|
Mikel Jauregizar 90+1' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Athletic Club clinched a gritty 1-0 home win against Osasuna, leading 1-0 at halftime after an early goal. Despite Osasuna's dominance with 64% possession to Athletic Club's 36%, the visitors could not break through. A red card to Athletic Club in the second half forced them to defend with ten men, yet they repelled waves of pressure. Considered the stronger team, Osasuna struggled to capitalize on their territorial advantage and numerical superiority. Athletic Club's defensive organization and resilience proved decisive, marking a minimal deviation from structural expectations. This result underscores their ability to secure points under duress, even as the game distorted post-red card.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Athletic Club exhibited minimal structural deviation of 5.3%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: Home red card significantly altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card introduced distortion in second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

V. García Verdura

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Fernández González

1st Assistant

J. Villaseñor Julián

2nd Assistant

F. Crespo Puente

4th Official

Athletic Club E. Valverde
E. Valverde
VS
Osasuna A. Lisci
A. Lisci
1.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Villarreal Rank: L
Getafe Rank: L
Real Betis Rank: W
Girona Rank: L
FC Barcelona Rank: L
Rayo Vallecano Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Betis Rank: D
Deportivo Alavés Rank: D
Girona Rank: W
Real Sociedad Rank: L
Mallorca Rank: D
Valencia Rank: L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 11 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Athletic Club
94.72%
Draw
5.09%
Away Osasuna
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Athletic Club
+2.26%
Draw
-2.24%
Osasuna
-0.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.14
23.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Athletic Club
Osasuna
Power Score
21.14
23.73
League Position
9
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Athletic Club — Opponent-weighted form score
Osasuna — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Athletic Club Osasuna

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Athletic Club

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Osasuna

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Athletic Club ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osasuna
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.47
15.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.31
23.47
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Athletic Club +0.74 Efficiency Index
vs
Osasuna -0.74 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Athletic Club
Osasuna
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Athletic Club ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osasuna
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Athletic Club Osasuna
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Athletic Club Osasuna
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Athletic Club
Osasuna
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Athletic Club
vs
Osasuna
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Athletic Club Osasuna
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Athletic Club 0.24
Osasuna 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Athletic Club Osasuna
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Athletic Club 0.00
Osasuna 0.03
Athletic Club
Osasuna
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • OSA had peak pressure around 61'.
  • ATH started the game with stronger pressure.
ATH Pressure OSA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: OSA reached the top pressure at 61' (83.29).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Athletic Club ATH Home
38 matches
Osasuna OSA Away
Match Record
17
Wins
10
11
Draws
11
10
Losses
17
Goals
50
Goals Scored
36
36
Goals Conceded
50
+14
Goal Difference
-14

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:02:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
U. Simón Mendibil
Spain
1 U. Simón Mendibil
A. Gorosabel Espinosa
Spain
2 A. Gorosabel Espinosa
Y. Álvarez López
Spain
5 Y. Álvarez López
A. Laporte
Substitution
Spain
14 A. Laporte
Y. Berchiche Izeta
Substitution
Spain
17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
Substitution
Spain
16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
M. Jauregizar Alboniga
Spain
18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
I. Williams Arthuer
Ghana
9 I. Williams Arthuer
A. Berenguer Remiro
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Berenguer Remiro
N. Williams Arthuer
Substitution
Spain
10 N. Williams Arthuer
G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
Spain
11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
Pitch
S. Herrera Pirón
Spain
1 S. Herrera Pirón
J. Galán Gil
Spain
20 J. Galán Gil
J. Herrando Oroz
Substitution
Spain
5 J. Herrando Oroz
F. Boyomos
Cameroon
22 F. Boyomos
V. Rosier
France
19 V. Rosier
L. Torró Marset
Substitution
Spain
6 L. Torró Marset
J. Moncayola Tollar
Substitution
Spain
7 J. Moncayola Tollar
V. Muñoz Villanueva
Spain
21 V. Muñoz Villanueva
A. Oroz
Substitution
Spain
10 A. Oroz
R. García Santos
Substitution
Spain
14 R. García Santos
A. Budimir
Croatia
17 A. Budimir

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 21, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
San Mamés Barria
Capacity :
53289
Attendance :
47500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Víctor García Verdura
Eliana Fernández González
Julián Villaseñor Julián
F. Crespo Puente

Statistics

Possession
ATH
41%
OSA
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
0 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 6
29 Dangerous attacks 36
36 Possession 64
5 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

17 Throwins 27
7 Successful Dribbles 10
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 59
13 Successful Headers 14
12 Dribble Attempts 17
5 Goal Kicks 6
74 Ball Safe 88
8 Goal Attempts 6
0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

90 Attacks 94
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 84
56 Long Passes 60
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
296 Passes 550
231 Successful Passes 461
5 Key Passes 4
23 Successful Long Passes 22

Defensive

44 Duels Won 47
10 Interceptions 5
13 Tackles 13
2 Saves 2

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 19
3 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

12 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Víctor García Verdura

Starting XI ▼

1
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
6.76
2
Andoni Gorosabel
Andoni Gorosabel Defender
6.6
5
Yeray Álvarez
Yeray Álvarez Defender
6.82
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Defender
6.89
3
Dani Vivian
Dani Vivian
Defender75'
6.72
17
Yuri Berchiche
Yuri Berchiche Defender
6.93
19
Adama Boiro
Adama Boiro
Defender81'
6.47
7
Álex Berenguer
Álex Berenguer Midfielder
6.89
8
Oihan Sancet
Oihan Sancet
Midfielder65'
6.68
9
Iñaki Williams
Iñaki Williams Midfielder
6.68
10
Nico Williams
Nico Williams Midfielder
6.84
23
Robert Navarro
Robert Navarro
Midfielder65'
6.71
16
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta Midfielder
6.83
30
Alejandro Rego
Alejandro Rego
Midfielder65'
6.65
18
Mikel Jauregizar
Mikel Jauregizar Midfielder
6.83
11
Gorka Guruzeta
Gorka Guruzeta Attacker
6.88
Referee : Víctor García Verdura

Starting XI ▼

1
Sergio Herrera
Sergio Herrera Goalkeeper
6.94
5
Jorge Herrando
Jorge Herrando Defender
6.62
16
Moi Gómez
Moi Gómez
Attacker84'
6.75
19
Valentin Rosier
Valentin Rosier Defender
6.65
20
Javi Galán
Javi Galán Defender
6.52
22
Enzo Boyomo
Enzo Boyomo Defender
6.74
6
Lucas Torró
Lucas Torró Midfielder
6.76
8
Iker Muñoz
Iker Muñoz
Midfielder71'
6.64
7
Jon Moncayola
Jon Moncayola Midfielder
6.83
9
Raúl García
Raúl García
Attacker84'
6.72
10
Aimar Oroz
Aimar Oroz Midfielder
6.84
11
Kike Barja
Kike Barja
Attacker78'
6.58
14
Rubén García
Rubén García Midfielder
6.91
18
Raúl Moro
Raúl Moro
Attacker71'
6.69
21
Víctor Muñoz
Víctor Muñoz Midfielder
6.76
17
Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir Attacker
7.11

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Moi Gómez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Iñaki Williams
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Mikel Jauregizar
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+1'
84'
Event
Raúl García → Jon Moncayola
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Moi Gómez → Jorge Herrando
10th Substitution
Event
Adama Boiro → Yuri Berchiche
8th Substitution
81'
78'
Event
Kike Barja → Aimar Oroz
7th Substitution
Event
Dani Vivian → Aymeric Laporte
6th Substitution
75'
71'
Event
Raúl Moro → Rubén García
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Iker Muñoz → Lucas Torró
5th Substitution
Event
Alejandro Rego → Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Oihan Sancet → Álex Berenguer
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Robert Navarro → Nico Williams
1st Substitution
65'
57'
Event
Ante Budimir
GoalkeeperSave
54'
Event
Enzo Boyomo
Penalty awarded
48'
Event
Aimar Oroz
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Gorka Guruzeta
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
16'
Event
Mikel Jauregizar
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'
Event
Lucas Torró
Penalty disallowed
5'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Javi Galán from Osasuna won a free kick on the left wing.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after Yeray Álvarez concedes.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Mikel Jauregizar of Athletic Club.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Athletic Club winning 1-0 against Osasuna.
90
Update Update
Valentin Rosier from Osasuna misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high and wide to the right.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mikel Jauregizar of Athletic Club receives a second yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
Kike Barja of Osasuna won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 8 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Víctor Muñoz of Osasuna.
90
Attempt Attempt
Víctor Muñoz of Osasuna has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
90
Update Update
Oihan Sancet from Athletic Club won a free kick in defense.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Moi Gómez of Osasuna receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
Oihan Sancet from Athletic Club won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Moi Gómez of Osasuna.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Iñaki Williams from Athletic Club receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Raúl Moro of Osasuna had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box but missing to the left. The assist was provided by Víctor Muñoz.
88
Update Update
Raúl Moro of Osasuna committed a foul.
88
Update Update
Robert Navarro of Athletic Club won a free kick in defense.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Raúl García replaces Jon Moncayola.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Alejandro Rego of Athletic Club.
84
Update Update
Iker Muñoz from Osasuna won a free kick in defense.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Moi Gómez replaces Jorge Herrando.
83
Update Update
Valentin Rosier of Osasuna won a free kick in defense.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Robert Navarro of Athletic Club.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Adama Boiro replaces Yuri Berchiche due to injury.
79
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Yuri Berchiche from Athletic Club.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Kike Barja replaces Aimar Oroz.
77
Update Update
Jon Moncayola from Osasuna committed a foul.
77
Update Update
Yuri Berchiche of Athletic Club won a free kick in defense.
77
Update Update
Jon Moncayola of Osasuna commits a foul.
76
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Andoni Gorosabel from Athletic Club.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Dani Vivian replaces Aymeric Laporte due to injury.
74
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Aymeric Laporte of Athletic Club.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after Alejandro Rego concedes.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Raúl Moro replaces Rubén García.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Raúl Moro replaces Rubén García.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Iker Muñoz replaces Lucas Torró.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after a concession by Jorge Herrando.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after a concession by Valentin Rosier.
67
Attempt Attempt
Robert Navarro's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Robert Navarro replaces Nico Williams.
65
Update Update
Mikel Jauregizar of Athletic Club commits a handball.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Alejandro Rego replaces Íñigo Ruíz de Galarreta.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Oihan Sancet replaces Alex Berenguer.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after Yuri Berchiche concedes.
63
Corner Corner
Lucas Torró from Osasuna missed a chance, heading the ball from the right side of the six-yard box high and wide to the right. The assist came from Rubén García, who delivered a cross after a corner.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Mikel Jauregizar of Athletic Club.
60
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna won a free kick in the attacking area.
57
Update Update
Unai Simón of Athletic Club won a free kick in defense.
57
Update Update
Yeray Álvarez of Athletic Club concedes a penalty for a handball in the penalty area.
57
Update Update
Javi Galán from Osasuna commits a foul.
54
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty for Osasuna.
53
Corner Corner
Ante Budimir of Osasuna had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from inside the six-yard box, but the ball went wide to the left. The assist came from Enzo Boyomo after a corner.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after a concession by Yuri Berchiche.
53
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Enzo Boyomo from Osasuna had a right-footed shot from the center of the box that was blocked.
50
Update Update
Yuri Berchiche of Athletic Club won a free kick on the left wing.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Rubén García of Osasuna.
48
Update Update
Andoni Gorosabel of Athletic Club won a free kick in defense.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aimar Oroz of Osasuna receives a yellow card for a foul.
48
Update Update
Aimar Oroz of Osasuna committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Torró of Osasuna.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Athletic Club leading Osasuna 1-0.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with Athletic Club leading Osasuna 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Nico Williams of Athletic Club won a free kick in defense.
44
Update Update
Yuri Berchiche of Athletic Club won a free kick in defense.
44
Update Update
Rubén García from Osasuna committed a foul.
39
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Alex Berenguer from Athletic Club had a right-footed shot from the center of the box that was close but missed to the left. The assist was by Gorka Guruzeta.
33
Update Update
Javi Galán from Osasuna won a free kick in defense.
33
Update Update
Andoni Gorosabel from Athletic Club commits a foul.
29
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna committed a foul.
29
Update Update
Víctor Muñoz of Osasuna won a free kick in defense.
24
Attempt Attempt
Yuri Berchiche from Athletic Club misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after Lucas Torró concedes.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after a concession by Lucas Torró.
18
Update Update
Valentin Rosier of Osasuna won a free kick on the right wing.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Yuri Berchiche of Athletic Club.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Mikel Jauregizar of Athletic Club.
18
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna won a free kick in defense.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gorka Guruzeta scores for Athletic Club with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner. The score is now Athletic Club 1, Osasuna 0.
16
Attempt Attempt
Nico Williams of Athletic Club attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, but his shot is saved by Osasuna's goalkeeper Sergio Herrera, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Alex Berenguer.
14
Update Update
Ante Budimir of Osasuna committed a foul.
14
Update Update
Aymeric Laporte of Athletic Club won a free kick in defense.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Mikel Jauregizar of Athletic Club.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mikel Jauregizar of Athletic Club receives a yellow card for a foul.
10
Update Update
Víctor Muñoz of Osasuna won a free kick in defense.
9
Update Update
VAR is checking a penalty for Athletic Club.
5
Update Update
The VAR decision confirms that there is no penalty for Athletic Club.
4
Corner Corner
Gorka Guruzeta of Athletic Club misses a chance, heading the ball from the center of the box high and wide to the left. The assist came from Nico Williams, who delivered a cross after a corner.
4
Corner Corner
Athletic Club wins a corner after Víctor Muñoz concedes.
1
Update Update
Íñigo Ruíz de Galarreta from Athletic Club won a free kick in an attacking position.
1
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Athletic Club's 1-0 triumph over Osasuna exemplifies defensive mastery amid adversity, holding firm despite 64% opponent possession and a second-half red card. The halftime lead proved pivotal, as Osasuna's control yielded no goals. This minimal deviation result reinforces Athletic Club's home resilience against a stronger-named foe. Their structure held, efficiency aligned, and market expectations met, with red card effects distorting but not derailing the outcome. Key for momentum, this win highlights tactical adaptability and squad depth in high-stakes scenarios.

Athletic Club vs Osasuna preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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