Brighton & Hove Albion vs Chelsea Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
The American Express Community Stadium Tue, 21 Apr - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion BHA
Versus
Chelsea CHE
KICKOFF : Tue, 21 Apr - 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Brighton & Hove Albion host Chelsea at The American Express Community Stadium in a Premier League Regular Season fixture during the 2025/2026 season. The home team is currently ninth in the league standings and the away team is sixth. Brighton's season form reads W4 D1 L1 from 6 matches while Chelsea's season form reads W1 D1 L4 from 6 matches. Brighton’s last outing was a Draw away versus Tottenham Hotspur. Chelsea’s last outing was a Draw home versus Manchester United. The recent form indicates that the home side has been performing better than the visitors over the last six matches.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Brighton & Hove Albion hold a +3.9 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Brighton & Hove Albion sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Brighton & Hove Albion show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Brighton & Hove Albion have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Brighton & Hove Albion carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Brighton & Hove Albion hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Baseline split: Brighton & Hove Albion 38.2% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.8% (Δ+0%) | Chelsea 36% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Brighton & Hove Albion F. Hürzeler
F. Hürzeler
VS
Chelsea L. Rosenior
L. Rosenior
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: D
Burnley Rank: W
Liverpool Rank: W
Sunderland Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: L
Nottingham Forest Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester United Rank: D
Manchester City Rank: L
Everton Rank: L
Newcastle United Rank: L
Aston Villa Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 4 - 10
10
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brighton & Hove Albion
38.24%
Draw
25.79%
Away Chelsea
35.96%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.43
24.49
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brighton & Hove Albion
Chelsea
Power Score
28.43
24.49
League Position
9
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Brighton & Hove Albion — Opponent-weighted form score
Chelsea — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brighton & Hove Albion Chelsea

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brighton & Hove Albion BHA Home
19 matches
Chelsea CHE Away
Match Record
5
Wins
10
4
Draws
4
10
Losses
5
Goals
24
Goals Scored
33
33
Goals Conceded
24
-9
Goal Difference
+9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T02:01:54+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 21, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
The American Express Community Stadium
Capacity
31876
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Craig Pawson
Lee Betts
Matthew Wilkes
Ruebyn Ricardo

Squad

Referee : Craig Pawson

Squad ▼

23
Jason Steele
Jason Steele Goalkeeper
38
Thomas McGill
Thomas McGill Goalkeeper
1
Bart Verbruggen
Bart Verbruggen Goalkeeper
5
Lewis Dunk
Lewis Dunk Defender
4
Adam Webster
Adam Webster Defender
34
Joël Veltman
Joël Veltman Defender
24
Ferdi Erenay Kadıoğlu
Ferdi Erenay Kadıoğlu Defender
3
Igor Julio dos Santos de Paulo
Igor Julio dos Santos de Paulo Defender
21
Olivier Boscagli
Olivier Boscagli Defender
29
Maxim De Cuyper
Maxim De Cuyper Defender
27
Mats Wieffer
Mats Wieffer Defender
6
Jan Paul van Hecke
Jan Paul van Hecke Defender
20
James Philip Milner
James Philip Milner Midfielder
30
Pascal Groß
Pascal Groß Midfielder
33
Matthew O'Riley
Matthew O'Riley Midfielder
26
Yasin Abbas Ayari
Yasin Abbas Ayari Midfielder
13
Jack Hinshelwood
Jack Hinshelwood Midfielder
25
Diego Alexander Gómez Amarilla
Diego Alexander Gómez Amarilla Midfielder
17
Carlos Balepa Noom Quomah
Carlos Balepa Noom Quomah Midfielder
18
Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck
Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck Attacker
7
Solomon March
Solomon March Attacker
22
Kaoru Mitoma
Kaoru Mitoma Attacker
10
Georginio Rutter
Georginio Rutter Attacker
9
Stefanos Tzimas
Stefanos Tzimas Attacker
11
Yankuba Minteh
Yankuba Minteh Attacker
19
Charalampos Kostoulas
Charalampos Kostoulas Attacker
Referee : Craig Pawson

Squad ▼

1
Robert Lynch Sanchez
Robert Lynch Sanchez Goalkeeper
—
James Hillson
James Hillson Goalkeeper
12
Filip Jörgensen
Filip Jörgensen Goalkeeper
44
Gabriel Slonina
Gabriel Slonina Goalkeeper
28
Teddy Sharman-Lowe
Teddy Sharman-Lowe Goalkeeper
4
Oluwatosin Adarabioyo
Oluwatosin Adarabioyo Defender
3
Marc Cucurella Saseta
Marc Cucurella Saseta Defender
23
Trevoh Chalobah
Trevoh Chalobah Defender
24
Reece James
Reece James Defender
5
Benoît Badiashile Mukinayi
Benoît Badiashile Mukinayi Defender
29
Wesley Fofana
Wesley Fofana Defender
6
Levi Samuels Colwill
Levi Samuels Colwill Defender
27
Malo Gusto
Malo Gusto Defender
—
Caleb Ryan Wiley
Caleb Ryan Wiley Defender
19
Mamadou Sarr
Mamadou Sarr Defender
21
Jorrel Hato
Jorrel Hato Defender
34
Joshua Kofi Acheampong
Joshua Kofi Acheampong Defender
10
Cole Palmer
Cole Palmer Midfielder
8
Enzo Jeremías Fernández
Enzo Jeremías Fernández Midfielder
25
Moisés Isaac Caicedo Corozo
Moisés Isaac Caicedo Corozo Midfielder
45
Roméo Lavia
Roméo Lavia Midfielder
17
Andrey Nascimento dos Santos
Andrey Nascimento dos Santos Midfielder
14
Dario Cassia Luis Essugo
Dario Cassia Luis Essugo Midfielder
7
Pedro Lomba Neto
Pedro Lomba Neto Attacker
—
Mykhailo Mudryk
Mykhailo Mudryk Attacker
9
Liam Delap
Liam Delap Attacker
20
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus Attacker
49
Alejandro Garnacho Ferreyra
Alejandro Garnacho Ferreyra Attacker
11
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens Attacker
38
Marc Guiu Paz
Marc Guiu Paz Attacker
41
Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves Attacker

CONCLUSION

Brighton & Hove Albion enters with the stronger pre-match profile, holding a 3.9 point power advantage and superior recent form of four wins, one draw and one loss in six games. Chelsea has one win, one draw and four losses over the same period and holds a league position of sixth to the home side's ninth. Both teams are coming off draws in their last matches. Projections have Brighton & Hove Albion as the leader, in alignment with the structural signals. Execution in the final third will likely decide the outcome of this encounter.

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