Moreirense vs Estoril Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas Mon, 20 Apr - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Moreirense MOE
Versus
Estoril ETR
KICKOFF : Mon, 20 Apr - 7:15 PM
Round 30 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the 2025/2026 Liga Portugal season, Moreirense face Estoril at the Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas during the Regular Season. The home side currently occupy ninth place in the table, while their opponents sit in seventh. Power rankings give Estoril the nod as the stronger team with an advantage of 2.5 points. Recent form has been underwhelming for both, with Moreirense recording no wins in six games (W0 D3 L3) and Estoril managing just one victory (W1 D1 L4). Moreirense picked up a draw in their previous outing against Famalicão away from home, whereas Estoril went down at home to Porto. This promises to be an intriguing mid-table battle as both clubs seek consistency and points to climb the standings.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Mid-table clash, Estoril hold 2.5pt power edge away from home
  • Form: Home W0 D3 L3, away W1 D1 L4 from six matches each
  • Squad: Full squads available with no major absences noted
  • Efficiency: Metrics suggest Estoril edge in overall performance
  • Transition: Estoril favoured in defensive to attacking transitions
  • Set pieces: Low confidence data, both teams proxy reliant
  • xVariable: No xG data available adds uncertainty to analysis
  • Market: Moreirense 31.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.6% (Δ+0%) | Estoril 40.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Moreirense V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
VS
Estoril I. Cathro
I. Cathro
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Famalicão Rank: D
Sporting Braga Rank: L
Arouca Rank: L
Porto Rank: L
Nacional Rank: D
Casa Pia Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Porto Rank: L
Arouca Rank: L
Rio Ave Rank: L
Nacional Rank: W
Casa Pia Rank: D
Sporting CP Rank: L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 7 - 6
6
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Moreirense
31.8%
Draw
27.59%
Away Estoril
40.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.99
18.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Moreirense
Estoril
Power Score
15.99
18.5
League Position
9
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Moreirense — Opponent-weighted form score
Estoril — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Moreirense Estoril

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Moreirense MOE Home
17 matches
Estoril ETR Away
Match Record
4
Wins
6
7
Draws
7
6
Losses
4
Goals
21
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
21
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T02:17:40+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Ribeiro Ferreira
13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
F. de Souza Silva
70 F. de Souza Silva
G. Dambi Batista
66 G. Dambi Batista
Y. Farias de Sousa
99 Y. Farias de Sousa
F. Teixeira Domingues
27 F. Teixeira Domingues
F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
N. John
23 N. John
M. Stjepanovic
8 M. Stjepanovic
D. Martins Travassos
2 D. Martins Travassos
A. de Souza Guimarães
11 A. de Souza Guimarães
R. Alonso Martín
21 R. Alonso Martín
J. Robles Blázquez
1 J. Robles Blázquez
P. Gaspar Amaral
24 P. Gaspar Amaral
F. Bacher
25 F. Bacher
A. Tsoungui
5 A. Tsoungui
R. Sánchez Sendra
2 R. Sánchez Sendra
M. da Silva Rocha
8 M. da Silva Rocha
J. Holsgrove
10 J. Holsgrove
A. Orellana Gómez
6 A. Orellana Gómez
J. Antunes Carvalho
12 J. Antunes Carvalho
A. Ferreira Lacximicant
19 A. Ferreira Lacximicant
Y. Begraoui
14 Y. Begraoui

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 20, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Capacity
2000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

13
André Ferreira
André Ferreira Goalkeeper
6.86
2
Travassos
Travassos Midfielder
6.87
10
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso Midfielder
6.64
11
Alan de Souza Guimarães
Alan de Souza Guimarães Attacker
6.99
21
Rodrigo Alonso Martín
Rodrigo Alonso Martín Attacker
6.65
8
Mateja Stjepanović
Mateja Stjepanović Central Midfield
6.66
23
Nile John
Nile John Central Midfield
6.53
27
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues Left Back
6.66
66
Gilberto Dambi Batista
Gilberto Dambi Batista Right Back
6.69
70
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva Right Back
6.64
99
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa Left Back
6.53

Starting XI ▼

1
Joel Robles
Joel Robles Goalkeeper
6.68
14
Yanis Begraoui
Yanis Begraoui Attacker
7.09
19
André Lacximicant
André Lacximicant Attacker
6.69
2
Ricard Sánchez
Ricard Sánchez Right Back
6.78
5
Antef Tsoungui
Antef Tsoungui Right Back
6.68
6
Jandro Orellana
Jandro Orellana Central Midfield
6.69
8
Xeka
Xeka Central Midfield
6.63
10
Jordan Holsgrove
Jordan Holsgrove Central Midfield
7.19
12
João Carvalho
João Carvalho Attacking Midfield
7.22
24
Pedro Amaral
Pedro Amaral Left Back
6.52
25
Felix Bacher
Felix Bacher Left Back
6.78

CONCLUSION

Estoril are the stronger side according to power scores and will look to build on their position in seventh place. Moreirense, winless in six, need to turn draws into wins at home. After losing to Porto, the visitors should be motivated to perform. Expect Estoril to control proceedings and target a victory on the road. Moreirense will defend stoutly and seek opportunities on the break. With close projections, a draw is possible but the away team appear better placed to take the points in this Regular Season clash.

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