Dundee vs Dundee United Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park Sun, 15 Mar - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Dundee DUD
2 – 2
Dundee United DUD
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 2:00 PM
Ashley Hay - 90+4'
Ross Graham - 90+6' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Amar Fatah - 50' (P)
L. Stephenson - 66'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Dundee 2–2 Dundee United. The match ended in a draw. Dundee United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 56%–44%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dundee United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Snedden
I. Snedden
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
D. Nicolson
D. Nicolson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
D. Roome
D. Roome
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
C. Rae
C. Rae
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Dundee S. Pressley
S. Pressley
VS
Dundee United J. Goodwin
J. Goodwin
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.12
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell Rank: 69 W
Hibernian Rank: 69 D
Aberdeen Rank: 60 W
Livingston Rank: 53 D
Falkirk Rank: 65 L
St. Mirren Rank: 58 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Mirren Rank: 57 W
Motherwell Rank: 68 L
Aberdeen Rank: 59 D
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 D
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Hibernian Rank: 69 L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 6 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dundee
37.72%
Draw
28.91%
Away Dundee United
33.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.67
60.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dundee
Dundee United
Power Score
58.67
60.03
League Position
8
7
Global Rank
501
456

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dundee — Opponent-weighted form score
Dundee United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dundee Dundee United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dundee

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dundee United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dundee ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.00
52.84
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
52.84
15.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dundee -3.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Dundee United +3.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee
Dundee United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dundee ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dundee Dundee United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dundee Dundee United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee
Dundee United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dundee DUD Home
8 matches
Dundee United DUD Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
2
Goals
10
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
10
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:13:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. McCracken
Scotland
1 J. McCracken
D. Wright
England
7 D. Wright
R. Astley
Wales
4 R. Astley
L. Graham
Scotland
22 L. Graham
I. Samuels
England
12 I. Samuels
E. Hamilton
Scotland
48 E. Hamilton
J. Cotterill
Substitution
Wales
24 J. Cotterill
C. Congreve
Substitution
Wales
20 C. Congreve
Y. Dhanda
Substitution
England
21 Y. Dhanda
T. Yogane
Substitution
England
17 T. Yogane
S. Murray
Substitution
Scotland
15 (C) S. Murray
A. Maynard-Brewer
Australia
1 A. Maynard-Brewer
K. Keresztes
Hungary
23 K. Keresztes
R. Graham
Scotland
6 (C) R. Graham
I. Iovu
Substitution
Moldova
4 I. Iovu
W. Ferry
Republic of Ireland
11 W. Ferry
E. Agyei
Ghana
12 E. Agyei
V. Ševelj
Croatia
5 V. Ševelj
L. Stephenson
Substitution
England
21 L. Stephenson
A. Ahmed Fatah
Sweden
17 A. Ahmed Fatah
N. Farrugia
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
20 N. Farrugia
M. Watters
Substitution
England
36 M. Watters

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Stadium
Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park
Capacity
12085
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Iain Snedden
Duncan Nicolson
D. Roome
Chris Rae

Statistics

Possession
DUD
53%
DUD
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 5
1 Shots 7
48 Dangerous attacks 65
56 Possession 44
4 Corners 7
13 Free kicks 4
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 7
27 Throwins 21
70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 73
10 Dribble Attempts 11
7 Successful Dribbles 8
1 Goal Attempts 13
0 Penalties 1
33 Successful Headers 23
103 Ball Safe 77
5 Substitutions 4
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

93 Attacks 91
0 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

240 Successful Passes 156
79 Long Passes 73
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
69 Successful Passes Percentage 59
23 Successful Long Passes 22
350 Passes 263
2 Key Passes 14

Defensive

9 Interceptions 13
9 Tackles 15
7 Saves 1

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 23
1 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

5 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

1
Jon McCracken
Jon McCracken Goalkeeper
7.62
4
Ryan Astley
Ryan Astley Defender
7.01
7
Drey Wright
Drey Wright Defender
6.32
12
Imari Samuels
Imari Samuels Defender
6.4
22
Luke Graham
Luke Graham Defender
7.59
17
Tony Yogane
Tony Yogane Midfielder
6.39
25
Scott Wright
Scott Wright
Attacker75'
6.54
20
Cameron Congreve
Cameron Congreve Midfielder
5.81
18
Charlie Reilly
Charlie Reilly
Attacker80'
6.65
21
Yan Dhanda
Yan Dhanda Midfielder
6.73
10
Finlay Robertson
Finlay Robertson
Midfielder80'
6.58
24
Joel Cotterill
Joel Cotterill Midfielder
6.42
19
Joe Westley
Joe Westley
Attacker67'
6.64
48
Ethan Hamilton
Ethan Hamilton Midfielder
6.84
15
Simon Murray
Simon Murray (C) Attacker
6.13
11
Ashley Hay
Ashley Hay
Attacker68'
7.23
Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

1
Ashley Maynard-Brewer
Ashley Maynard-Brewer Goalkeeper
6.06
4
Iurie Iovu
Iurie Iovu Defender
6.62
8
Panutche Camara
Panutche Camara
Midfielder61'
6.1
6
Ross Graham
Ross Graham (C) Defender
6.45
23
Krisztián Keresztes
Krisztián Keresztes Defender
7.37
5
Vicko Sevelj
Vicko Sevelj Midfielder
6.95
11
Will Ferry
Will Ferry Midfielder
7.33
12
Emmanuel Agyei
Emmanuel Agyei Midfielder
6.71
21
L. Stephenson
L. Stephenson Midfielder
8.22
2
Ryan Strain
Ryan Strain
Defender83'
5.95
17
Amar Fatah
Amar Fatah Attacker
8.24
20
N. Farrugia
N. Farrugia Attacker
6.68
77
Johnny Russell
Johnny Russell
Attacker82'
6.58
36
Max Watters
Max Watters Attacker
6.6
9
Zachary Sapsford
Zachary Sapsford
Midfielder72'
6.19

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ethan Hamilton
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Ross Graham
Header / 1st Own Goal
90+6'
90+5'
Event
Ross Graham
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Ashley Hay
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+4'
90+2'
Event
Will Ferry
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Var
87'
83'
Event
Ryan Strain → L. Stephenson
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Johnny Russell → N. Farrugia
8th Substitution
Event
Charlie Reilly → Cameron Congreve
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Finlay Robertson → Yan Dhanda
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Scott Wright → Tony Yogane
5th Substitution
75'
73'
Event
Vicko Sevelj
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
72'
Event
Zachary Sapsford → Max Watters
4th Substitution
Event
Ashley Hay → Simon Murray
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Joe Westley → Joel Cotterill
2nd Substitution
67'
66'
Event
L. Stephenson
Header / 1st Goal
61'
Event
Panutche Camara → Iurie Iovu
1st Substitution
53'
Event
Iurie Iovu
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
50'
Event
Amar Fatah
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Will Ferry from Dundee United receives a yellow card in the 92nd minute.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ashley Hay scores for Dundee in the 94th minute!
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ethan Hamilton from Dundee received a yellow card in the 96th minute.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ross Graham of Dundee United scored an own goal in the 96th minute.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ross Graham from Dundee United received a yellow card in the 95th minute.
83
Substitution Substitution
Ryan Strain has been substituted for Dundee United in the 83rd minute.
82
Substitution Substitution
Johnny Russell of Dundee United is being substituted in the 82nd minute.
80
Substitution Substitution
Finlay Robertson from Dundee is being substituted in the 81st minute.
80
Substitution Substitution
Charlie Reilly from Dundee is being substituted in the 80th minute.
75
Substitution Substitution
Scott Wright from Dundee is being substituted in the 75th minute.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Vicko Sevelj of Dundee United received a yellow card in the 73rd minute.
72
Substitution Substitution
Zachary Sapsford is being substituted for Dundee United in the 72nd minute.
68
Substitution Substitution
Ashley Hay has been substituted for Dundee in the 68th minute.
67
Substitution Substitution
Joe Westley of Dundee is being substituted in the 67th minute.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Luca Stephenson scores for Dundee United in the 66th minute!
61
Substitution Substitution
Panutche Camara of Dundee United has been substituted in the 61st minute.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Iurie Iovu from Dundee United receives a yellow card in the 53rd minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dundee United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews