Hibernian vs Livingston Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Easter Road Stadium
Sat, 14 Mar - 3:00 PM
Premiership
Hibernian
HIB
0
–
0
Livingston
LIV
Full Time
Sat, 14 Mar
3:00 PM
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
The match between Hibernian and Livingston has finished, ending in a 0-0 full-time draw after being scoreless at the break. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Hibernian entered the contest as heavy favorites with a 66.4% implied probability of victory. A draw was priced at just 20.4%, with a Livingston win at 13.2%, meaning the final outcome completely failed to align with the pre-match market. Hibernian thoroughly dominated the ball, racking up 75% possession compared to a mere 25% for the visiting side. Despite this overwhelming control, there is no expected goals (xG) data available to determine if the scoreless outcome was consistent with the quality of chances created by either team. Furthermore, the match proceeded without any red cards, meaning disciplinary ejections did not impact the final scoreline or alter the tactical landscape. Regarding overall team performance metrics, the efficiency shift was in line with expectations. Hibernian posted an efficiency rating of 1.81, while Livingston recorded a -1.81. Ultimately, the significantly favored home team controlled the tempo and possession but could not find the crucial breakthrough to secure a victory.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Hibernian showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Ross
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
10.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
L. Wilson
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
10.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
G. Hanvidge
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
10.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
D. McGeachie
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
10.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
D. Gray
VS
M. Bartley
1.6
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0.38
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee
Rank: 58
D
Celtic
Rank: 78
W
St. Mirren
Rank: 58
W
Hearts
Rank: 73
L
Dundee United
Rank: 62
W
Rangers
Rank: 77
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Mirren
Rank: 57
D
Rangers
Rank: 77
D
Dundee
Rank: 57
D
Celtic
Rank: 78
L
Falkirk
Rank: 65
L
Motherwell
Rank: 68
L
12
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 6 - 8
8
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Hibernian
66.41%
Draw
20.44%
Livingston
13.15%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.2
51.73
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hibernian
Livingston
Power Score
68.2
51.73
League Position
5
12
Global Rank
215
647
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Hibernian
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Livingston
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Hibernian Livingston
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Hibernian
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Livingston
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Hibernian
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Livingston
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.93
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.00
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Hibernian
+0.91
Efficiency Index
vs
Livingston
-0.91
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hibernian
Livingston
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Hibernian
vs
Livingston
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Hibernian
Livingston
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00
vs
+0.00
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Hibernian
Livingston
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
Hibernian
Livingston
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Hibernian
HIB
Home
17
matches
Livingston
LIV
Away
Match Record
8
Wins
6
3
Draws
3
6
Losses
8
Goals
33
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
33
+13
Goal Difference
-13
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:04:28+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-4-1-2
Match Formation
3-5-2
1 R. Sallinger
5 (C) W. O'Hora
33 R. Bushiri
M. Boyle
#1061'
15 J. Iredale
25 F. Passlack
22 D. Barlaser
J. Campbell
#3275'
14 M. Changa Chaiwa
19 N. Cadden
17 J. McGrath
K. Andrews
#2875'
47 O. Elding
D. Scarlett
#4461'
77 A. Šuto
28 J. Prior
19 D. Finlayson
27 (C) D. Wilson
23 B. Kabongolo
B. Fati
#362'
26 C. Montaño Castillo
E. Danso
#2075'
25 M. Tait
8 S. Pittman
24 M. Sylla
L. Smith
#1574'
2 C. Kerr
R. Muirhead
#964'
7 J. Nouble
B. McKay
#1062'
17 S. May
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Stadium
Easter Road Stadium
Capacity
20421
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Douglas Ross
Lloyd Wilson
Gary Hanvidge
David McGeachie
Statistics
Possession
HIB
72%
LIV
28%
Top Statistics
1
Big Chances Created
0
5
Shots
4
114
Dangerous attacks
10
75
Possession
25
12
Corners
0
7
Free kicks
6
2
Yellow Cards
1
Match Overview
2
Hit Woodwork
0
70
Ball Safe
61
17
Throwins
13
9
Successful Dribbles
3
16
Successful Headers
16
23
Dribble Attempts
6
0
Injuries
1
3
Goal Kicks
11
39
Successful Dribbles Percentage
50
4
Substitutions
5
Attacking
192
Attacks
51
1
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
67
Successful Long Passes Percentage
35
90
Successful Passes Percentage
72
664
Successful Passes
182
29
Successful Long Passes
17
16
Key Passes
3
43
Long Passes
48
736
Passes
252
Defensive
3
Interceptions
7
8
Tackles
16
2
Saves
5
Build-up
15
Accurate Crosses
1
51
Total Crosses
4
Discipline
6
Fouls
7
1
Offsides
1
Lineup
Referee :
Lloyd Wilson
Manager ▼
D. Gray
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Raphael Sallinger
Goalkeeper
6.93 5
Warren O'Hora (C)
Defender
7.73 15
Jack Iredale
Defender
7.27 10Martin Boyle
6.55Attacker61'
33
Rocky Bushiri
Defender
7.32 14
Miguel Chaiwa
Midfielder
6.92
32Josh Campbell
6.2Midfielder75'
19
Nicky Cadden
Midfielder
8.48 22
Dan Barlaser
Midfielder
7.52 25
Felix Passlack
Midfielder
7.26 17
Jamie McGrath
Attacker
7.71 47
Owen Elding
Attacker
7.1 28Kai Andrews
Midfielder75'
6.3
77
Ante Suto
Attacker
6.72 44Dane Scarlett
6.68Attacker61'
Substitutes ▼
13
Jordan Smith
Goalkeeper
12
Chris Cadden
Defender
42
Munashe Garananga
Defender
11
Joe Newell
Midfielder
7
Élie Youan
Attacker
Referee :
Lloyd Wilson
Manager ▼
M. Bartley
Coach
Starting XI ▼
28
Jérôme Prior
Goalkeeper
8.19
19
Danny Finlayson
Defender
7.37 23
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Defender
7.04 27
Danny Wilson (C)
Defender
6.56 2
Cammy Kerr
Midfielder
6.56 15Lewis Smith
6.5Midfielder74'
8
Scott Pittman
Midfielder
6.85 24
Mohamad Sylla
Midfielder
6.98 25
Macaulay Tait
Midfielder
6.6 20Emmanuel Danso
6.73Midfielder75'
26
Cristian Montano
Midfielder
6.53 3Babacar Fati
6.65Defender62'
7
Joel Nouble
Attacker
6.82 9Robbie Muirhead
6.8Attacker64'
17
Stevie May
Attacker
6.43 10B. McKay
6.41Midfielder62'
Substitutes ▼
32
Jamie Smith
Goalkeeper
5
Ryan McGowan
Defender
37
Scott Arfield
Midfielder
18
Jeremy Bokila
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
Kai Andrews
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+2'
Martin Boyle
Penalty disallowed
90'
83'
Jérôme Prior
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
Kai Andrews → Owen Elding
7th Substitution
75'
Josh Campbell → Miguel Chaiwa
8th Substitution
75'
75'
Emmanuel Danso → Macaulay Tait
9th Substitution
74'
Lewis Smith → Cammy Kerr
6th Substitution
Miguel Chaiwa
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
73'
64'
Robbie Muirhead → Joel Nouble
5th Substitution
62'
B. McKay → Stevie May
4th Substitution
62'
Babacar Fati → Cristian Montano
3rd Substitution
Martin Boyle → Jack Iredale
1st Substitution
61'
Dane Scarlett → Ante Suto
2nd Substitution
61'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Hibernian exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.
Match Commentary