Aberdeen vs Celtic Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Pittodrie Stadium Fri, 6 Mar - 2:09 PM
Premiership
Aberdeen ABE
1 Winner 2
Celtic CEL
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:09 PM
Kevin Nisbet - 19' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Kieran Tierney - 5'
Benjamin Nygren - 67'

CONTEXT

The match between Aberdeen and Celtic has finished, with Celtic securing a 2-1 victory after the teams were deadlocked at 1-1 at half-time. This final result perfectly aligned with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the visitors with a 58% win probability compared to Aberdeen's slim 18.9% chance. To claim all three points, Celtic produced a significant deviation in performance from the baseline, asserting their dominance as the stronger side. Celtic dictated the tempo throughout the contest, controlling a commanding 62% of the possession while restricting the hosts to just 38% of the ball. Although expected goals (xG) data was not available to precisely measure the quality of scoring chances created by either side, the overall efficiency shift for the match was entirely in line with historical metrics for both clubs. The fixture proceeded cleanly without any red cards to alter either team's tactical framework. Ultimately, Celtic utilized their overwhelming possession advantage to break the halftime tie. By cleanly executing in the second half, the visitors ensured the final outcome firmly matched the oddsmakers' pre-game predictions.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Celtic showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Walsh
N. Walsh
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
D. McFarlane
D. McFarlane
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
C. Drummond
C. Drummond
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
G. Soutar
G. Soutar
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Aberdeen Peter Leven
Peter Leven
VS
Celtic M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.89
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rangers Rank: L
Rangers Rank: L
Falkirk Rank: L
Hibernian Rank: L
Dundee United Rank: D
Celtic Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Falkirk Rank: W
Dundee United Rank: W
Rangers Rank: L
Motherwell Rank: L
Livingston Rank: W
Aberdeen Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 8 - 63
63

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aberdeen
18.88%
Draw
23.08%
Away Celtic
58.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
33.33
66.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aberdeen
Celtic
Power Score
33.33
66.67
League Position
8
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aberdeen Celtic

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aberdeen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Celtic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aberdeen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celtic
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.05
34.52
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.52
26.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aberdeen -0.70 Efficiency Index
vs
Celtic +0.70 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aberdeen
Celtic
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aberdeen
vs
Celtic
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aberdeen Celtic
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+1.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aberdeen Celtic
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Aberdeen
Celtic
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aberdeen ABE Home
21 matches
Celtic CEL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
17
4
Draws
4
17
Losses
0
Goals
16
Goals Scored
55
55
Goals Conceded
16
-39
Goal Difference
+39
Expected Goals
1.53
xG
1.63
1.63
xGA
1.53

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:23:39+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 02:09 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Stadium
Pittodrie Stadium
Capacity
20866
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
N. Walsh
Daniel McFarlane
Colin Drummond
Greg Soutar

Statistics

Possession
ABE
39%
CEL
61%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 3
8 Shots 18
38 Dangerous attacks 68
38 Possession 62
6 Corners 6
11 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Assists 2
18 Successful Headers 21
19 Dribble Attempts 6
9 Goal Kicks 8
21 Throwins 20
37 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
1 Penalties 0
7 Successful Dribbles 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1
3 Goal Attempts 7
72 Ball Safe 100

Attacking

84 Attacks 153
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

69 Long Passes 55
375 Passes 641
73 Successful Passes Percentage 84
275 Successful Passes 541
5 Key Passes 14
22 Successful Long Passes 23
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

15 Interceptions 8
10 Tackles 19
2 Saves 1

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 17
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

13 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Reo Hatate
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Colby Donovan → Julián Araujo
10th Substitution
Event
Dylan Lobban → Jack Milne
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Topi Keskinen → Alexander Jensen
8th Substitution
79'
76'
Event
James Forrest
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Graeme Shinnie → Dennis Geiger
7th Substitution
69'
67'
Event
Benjamin Nygren
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
65'
Event
James Forrest → Hyun-jun Yang
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Marcelo Saracchi → Kieran Tierney
6th Substitution
Event
Kenan Bilalovic → Toyosi Olusanya
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Liam Morrison → Sivert Heltne Nilsen
4th Substitution
62'
61'
Event
Daizen Maeda → Luke McCowan
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Benjamin Nygren → Tomas Cvancara
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Toyosi Olusanya
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
41'
Event
Sivert Heltne Nilsen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
26'
Event
Kevin Nisbet
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
19'
5'
Event
Kieran Tierney
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Reo Hatate from Celtic received a yellow card in the 89th minute.
87
Substitution Substitution
Colby Donovan of Celtic is being substituted in the 87th minute.
79
Substitution Substitution
Dylan Lobban of Aberdeen has been substituted in the 79th minute.
79
Substitution Substitution
Topi Keskinen of Aberdeen is being substituted in the 80th minute.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
James Forrest of Celtic receives a yellow card in the 76th minute.
69
Substitution Substitution
Graeme Shinnie from Aberdeen has been substituted in the 69th minute.
67
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Benjamin Nygren scores for Celtic in the 67th minute!
65
Update Update
Marcelo Saracchi has been replaced for Celtic in the 65th minute.
65
Substitution Substitution
James Forrest of Celtic has been substituted in the 65th minute.
62
Substitution Substitution
Kenan Bilalovic of Aberdeen is being substituted in the 62nd minute.
62
Substitution Substitution
Liam Morrison of Aberdeen has been substituted in the 62nd minute.
61
Substitution Substitution
Daizen Maeda of Celtic has been substituted in the 61st minute.
61
Substitution Substitution
Benjamin Nygren has been substituted for Celtic in the 61st minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Celtic exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews