Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu Sun, 19 Apr - 11:30 AM
Super Lig
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa
1 Winner 0
Alanyaspor ANY
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 30 Regular Season
İrfan Can Kahveci - 60'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Kasımpaşa pulled off a narrow 1-0 victory over the stronger Alanyaspor at home, defying expectations in a tightly contested Süper Lig clash. The first half finished 0-0, with Alanyaspor enjoying 55% possession but unable to break the deadlock despite their superiority. Kasımpaşa, more efficient with the ball, struck decisively in the second half to claim the points. No red cards disrupted proceedings, and the game remained even at halftime. This result showed minimal structural deviation, aligning closely with pre-match assessments. Kasımpaşa capitalized on limited chances, while Alanyaspor's dominance yielded nothing. Possession favored the visitors, yet home resilience prevailed in a match defined by defensive solidity and a single moment of quality.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kasımpaşa recorded minimal structural deviation of 3.9% from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable precluded alignment determination.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome fully aligned with market consensus.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without performance metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or ties altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured undistorted match progression.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Baltacı
G. Baltacı
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
O. Aksu
O. Aksu
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
K. Ersoy
K. Ersoy
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
O. Gökçen
O. Gökçen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Kasımpaşa E. Belözoğlu
E. Belözoğlu
VS
Alanyaspor N. Pereira Costa
N. Pereira Costa
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Göztepe Rank: D
Kayserispor Rank: W
Beşiktaş Rank: L
Eyüpspor Rank: W
Konyaspor Rank: D
Rizespor Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Trabzonspor Rank: D
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: D
Kocaelispor Rank: W
Göztepe Rank: D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: D
Galatasaray Rank: L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 2 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kasımpaşa
96.07%
Draw
3.73%
Away Alanyaspor
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kasımpaşa
+0.84%
Draw
-0.85%
Alanyaspor
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.64
20.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kasımpaşa
Alanyaspor
Power Score
18.64
20.67
League Position
13
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kasımpaşa — Opponent-weighted form score
Alanyaspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kasımpaşa Alanyaspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kasımpaşa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Alanyaspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kasımpaşa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Alanyaspor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.11
16.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.91
19.11
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kasımpaşa +0.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Alanyaspor -0.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kasımpaşa
Alanyaspor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kasımpaşa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Alanyaspor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kasımpaşa Alanyaspor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kasımpaşa Alanyaspor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kasımpaşa
Alanyaspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kasımpaşa
vs
Alanyaspor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kasımpaşa Alanyaspor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kasımpaşa 0.22
Alanyaspor 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kasımpaşa Alanyaspor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kasımpaşa 0.00
Alanyaspor 0.03
Kasımpaşa
Alanyaspor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Kasımpaşa had peak pressure around 44'.
  • Kasımpaşa started the game with stronger pressure.
Kasımpaşa Pressure ANY Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Kasımpaşa reached the top pressure at 44' (64.85).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa Home
19 matches
Alanyaspor ANY Away
Match Record
11
Wins
6
2
Draws
2
6
Losses
11
Goals
37
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
37
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:01:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
A. Gianniotis
Greece
1 A. Gianniotis
C. Winck Neto
Brazil
2 C. Winck Neto
N. Opoku
Ghana
20 N. Opoku
A. Arous
Tunisia
4 A. Arous
G. Owusu Frimpong
Netherlands
21 G. Owusu Frimpong
C. Ribeiro Dias
Portugal
8 C. Ribeiro Dias
A. Baldursson
Iceland
16 A. Baldursson
İ. Kahveci
Turkey
71 İ. Kahveci
F. Diabaté
Substitution
Mali
34 F. Diabaté
M. Ben Ouannes
Substitution
Tunisia
12 M. Ben Ouannes
A. Benedyczak
Substitution
Poland
19 A. Benedyczak
P. de Mileo Vidotti
Brazil
48 P. de Mileo Vidotti
?. Akdağ
Substitution
Romania
50 ?. Akdağ
N. Reis Lima
Portugal
3 N. Reis Lima
F. Aksoy
Turkey
20 F. Aksoy
R. Pereira Duarte
Substitution
Brazil
11 R. Pereira Duarte
N. Janvier
France
17 N. Janvier
G. Makouta
Substitution
France
42 G. Makouta
F. Hadërgjonaj
Kosovo
94 F. Hadërgjonaj
U. Hwang
South Korea
16 U. Hwang
G. Yalçın
Substitution
Turkey
10 G. Yalçın
İ. Kaya
Substitution
Turkey
27 İ. Kaya

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
Capacity
14234
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gökmen Baltacı
Oğuzhan Aksu
Kerem Ersoy
Oğuzhan Gökçen

Statistics

Possession
Kasımpaşa
48%
ANY
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 3
32 Dangerous attacks 26
45 Possession 55
6 Corners 1
15 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

11 Successful Headers 13
4 Dribble Attempts 13
16 Throwins 17
8 Goal Kicks 7
4 Successful Dribbles 5
82 Ball Safe 103
100 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
7 Goal Attempts 7
2 Injuries 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

92 Attacks 82
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

29 Successful Long Passes 26
68 Long Passes 51
81 Successful Passes Percentage 85
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
402 Passes 499
326 Successful Passes 423
4 Key Passes 8

Defensive

13 Tackles 6
8 Interceptions 5
41 Duels Won 35
4 Saves 1

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 2
21 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

11 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Oğuzhan Aksu

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Gianniotis
Andreas Gianniotis Goalkeeper
6.72
2
Cláudio Winck
Cláudio Winck Defender
6.77
4
Adem Arous
Adem Arous Defender
6.88
20
Nicholas Opoku
Nicholas Opoku Defender
6.74
21
Godfried Frimpong
Godfried Frimpong Defender
6.53
8
Cafú
Cafú Midfielder
6.66
12
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
Mortadha Ben Ouanes Midfielder
6.86
5
Eyüp Aydın
Eyüp Aydın
Midfielder76'
6.67
16
Andri Fannar Baldursson
Andri Fannar Baldursson Midfielder
6.71
34
Fousseni Diabaté
Fousseni Diabaté Midfielder
6.72
11
Ali Yavuz Kol
Ali Yavuz Kol
Attacker88'
6.59
71
İrfan Can Kahveci
İrfan Can Kahveci Midfielder
6.81
19
Adrian Benedyczak
Adrian Benedyczak Attacker
7.14
17
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş
Attacker88'
6.65
Referee : Oğuzhan Aksu

Starting XI ▼

48
Paulo Victor
Paulo Victor Goalkeeper
6.74
3
Nuno Lima
Nuno Lima Defender
6.85
20
Fatih Aksoy
Fatih Aksoy Defender
6.59
50
Ümit Akdağ
Ümit Akdağ Defender
6.95
30
Bruno Viana
Bruno Viana
Defender67'
6.75
11
Ruan
Ruan Midfielder
6.94
8
Enes Keskin
Enes Keskin
Midfielder81'
6.74
17
Nicolas Janvier
Nicolas Janvier Midfielder
6.87
42
Gaius Makouta
Gaius Makouta Midfielder
6.75
58
Maestro
Maestro
Midfielder61'
6.87
94
Florent Hadergjonaj
Florent Hadergjonaj Midfielder
7.08
10
Güven Yalçın
Güven Yalçın Attacker
6.75
14
Ianis Hagi
Ianis Hagi
Midfielder61'
7.1
16
Ui-jo Hwang
Ui-jo Hwang Attacker
6.85
27
İbrahim Kaya
İbrahim Kaya Attacker
6.82
9
Steve Mounié
Steve Mounié
Attacker82'
6.67

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andri Fannar Baldursson
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş → Adrian Benedyczak
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Ali Yavuz Kol → Fousseni Diabaté
8th Substitution
88'
82'
Event
Steve Mounié → İbrahim Kaya
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Enes Keskin → Ruan
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Bruno Viana
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Eyüp Aydın → Mortadha Ben Ouanes
4th Substitution
76'
67'
Event
Bruno Viana → Ümit Akdağ
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Maestro → Gaius Makouta
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Ianis Hagi → Güven Yalçın
1st Substitution
Event
İrfan Can Kahveci
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
60'
60'
Event
Paulo Victor
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Ümit Akdağ
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Adem Arous
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
22'
12'
Event
Ui-jo Hwang
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Kasımpaşa's 1-0 win highlights their knack for grinding out results against favored opponents like Alanyaspor. Despite trailing in possession and facing a stronger side, they maintained discipline and struck at the right moment post-halftime. This minimal-deviation triumph reinforces their home strength, with efficiency matching forecasts. Alanyaspor's failure to convert possession into goals exposes ongoing conversion issues. Without disruptions from cards or major events, the result feels earned through tactical nous. Kasımpaşa climbs the table, while Alanyaspor must regroup to match their potential.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Super Lig View all league clusters