AIK vs Kalmar Prediction, Preview and Stats
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Strawberry Arena
Sun, 19 Apr - 12:00 PM
Allsvenskan
AIK
AIK
1
0
0
Kalmar
KAL
Full Time
Sun, 19 Apr
12:00 PM
Round 3 ·
Regular Season
Johan Hove - 26' (P)
|
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
In a gritty Allsvenskan encounter at Friends Arena, AIK clinched a crucial 1-0 victory over pre-match favorites Kalmar, striking first in the opening half and holding firm thereafter. Despite Kalmar controlling 53% possession to AIK's 47%, the hosts' defensive resilience and clinical finishing proved decisive in a match devoid of red cards or major disruptions. Kalmar, deemed the stronger team beforehand, generated pressure but failed to convert, allowing AIK to defy slight expectations with a minimal 4.8% structural deviation. The game remained level only at kickoff, as AIK's early lead shaped a second half of containment and counter-threats. No significant tactical shifts or events altered the flow, highlighting AIK's efficiency in a balanced contest. This result strengthens AIK's push up the table while exposing Kalmar's profligacy.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: AIK's win featured minimal structural deviation of 4.8%.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match evaluations.
-
xG alignment: xG data absence prevents alignment determination.
-
Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market views.
-
xG expectations: Missing xG data blocks expectations analysis.
-
Event impact: Empty second-half adjustments produced no event impact.
-
Red card distortion: Zero red cards caused no distortion in dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Aganovic
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
17.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
M. Beigi
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
17.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
A. Ladebäck
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
17.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
A. Gergess
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
17.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
J. Riveiro
VS
T. Koskela
1.33
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brommapojkarna
Rank:
D
Halmstad
Rank:
W
Halmstad
Rank:
L
Elfsborg
Rank:
W
Häcken
Rank:
D
Hammarby
Rank:
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Djurgården
Rank:
L
Västerås SK
Rank:
L
16
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 10 - 12
12
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
AIK
95.23%
Draw
4.58%
Kalmar
0.19%
Movement
Changes since opening
AIK
+0.51%
Draw
-0.51%
Kalmar
0%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.86
27.78
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
AIK
Kalmar
Power Score
22.86
27.78
League Position
5
15
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
AIK
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Kalmar
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
AIK Kalmar
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
AIK
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Kalmar
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
AIK
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Kalmar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.17
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
AIK
-1.42
Efficiency Index
vs
Kalmar
+1.42
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AIK
Kalmar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
AIK
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Kalmar
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
AIK
Kalmar
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
AIK
Kalmar
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
1.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AIK
Kalmar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
AIK
vs
Kalmar
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
AIK
Kalmar
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
AIK
0.20
Kalmar
0.31
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
AIK
Kalmar
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
AIK
0.00
Kalmar
0.02
AIK
Kalmar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- AIK had peak pressure around 27'.
- KAL started the game with stronger pressure.
AIK Pressure
KAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
AIK reached the top pressure at 27' (61.85).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
AIK
AIK
Home
38
matches
Kalmar
KAL
Away
Match Record
16
Wins
12
10
Draws
10
12
Losses
16
Goals
40
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
40
+10
Goal Difference
-10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:01:57+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-4-2
15 K. Nordfeldt
L. Bergquist
#546'
12 C. Pavey
4 S. Papagiannopoulos
25 I. Cissé
A. Faqa
#3780'
21 S. Wilson
8 J. Hove
A. Csongvai
#3328'
19 D. Beširović
36 Zadok Yohanna
A. Mujanic
#759'
48 A. Kouame
10 B. Celina
E. Hovden Flataker
#959'
29 K. Filling
30 J. Kindberg
S. Øverby
#376'
2 V. Larsson
20 A. Dari
39 L. Sætra
4 R. Jansson
C. Nnamani
#7076'
10 M. Söderbäck
23 R. Gojani
M. Hallberg
#563'
7 N. Chourak
13 C. Rosenquist
24 C. Sagoe Junior
6 V. Tyren
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 3 · Regular Season
Stadium
Strawberry Arena
Capacity
54000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adi Aganovic
Mahbod Beigi
Adam Ladebäck
Abdelmasih Gergess
Next Match
AIK
vs
Degerfors
League: Allsvenskan
Kickoff: Thu, 23 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Stora Valla
Kalmar
vs
IFK Göteborg
League: Allsvenskan
Kickoff: Thu, 23 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Guldfågeln Arena
Statistics
Possession
AIK
49%
KAL
51%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
0
2
Big Chances Created
0
9
Shots
17
44
Dangerous attacks
54
47
Possession
53
4
Corners
5
8
Free kicks
12
3
Yellow Cards
2
Match Overview
19
Throwins
17
33
Successful Dribbles Percentage
9
6
Goal Attempts
7
85
Ball Safe
75
18
Dribble Attempts
11
9
Goal Kicks
5
5
Substitutions
3
1
Penalties
0
6
Successful Dribbles
1
1
Injuries
1
Attacking
66
Attacks
113
1
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
85
Successful Passes Percentage
87
370
Successful Passes
404
56
Long Passes
43
35
Successful Long Passes
24
63
Successful Long Passes Percentage
56
435
Passes
464
7
Key Passes
8
Defensive
42
Duels Won
41
9
Interceptions
10
18
Tackles
19
3
Saves
5
Build-up
8
Total Crosses
24
0
Accurate Crosses
4
Discipline
1
Offsides
2
12
Fouls
9
Lineup
Referee :
Adi Aganovic
Manager ▼
J. Riveiro
Coach
Starting XI ▼
15
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
Goalkeeper
7.23
4
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos
Defender
6.19 12
Charlie Pavey
Defender
6.82
5Lukas Bergquist
6.27Defender46'
21
Stanley Wilson
Defender
7.23
37Ahmad Faqa
6.54Defender80'
25
Ibrahim Cissé
Defender
7.4 8
Johan Hove
Midfielder
10
Bersant Celina
Midfielder
7.2 19
Dino Besirovic
Midfielder
6.73 33Áron Csongvai
7.45Midfielder28'
36
Z. Yohanna
Midfielder
7.67 48
Axel Kouame
Midfielder
6.63 7Amel Mujanic
6.98Midfielder59'
29
Kevin Filling
Attacker
6.49 9Erik Flataker
6.7Attacker59'
Substitutes ▼
30
Kalle Joelsson
Goalkeeper
11
Victor Gonçalves Andersson
Midfielder
6.67 18
Abdihakim Ali
Midfielder
6.84 45
Taha Ayari
Midfielder
6.68
Referee :
Adi Aganovic
Manager ▼
T. Koskela
Coach
Starting XI ▼
30
J. Kindberg
Goalkeeper
6.5 2
Victor Larsson
Defender
6.63 3S. Øverby
6.51Defender76'
4
R. Jansson
Defender
6.68 20
Achraf Dari
Defender
6.95
39
L. Sætra
Defender
6.27
7
N. Chourak
Midfielder
6.78 5M. Hallberg
6.86Midfielder63'
10
Marius Söderbäck
Midfielder
6.34 70Emeka Nnamani
6.55Attacker76'
13
C. Rosenquist
Midfielder
6.81 23
R. Gojani
Midfielder
7.08 6
V. Tyren
Attacker
6.6 24
Charles Sagoe Jr
Attacker
6.48 Substitutes ▼
1
S. Brolin
Goalkeeper
12
Z. Råvik
Defender
6.14 14
Elion Imeri
Midfielder
21
A. Magashy
Midfielder
11
A. Olusanya
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
90+1'
L. Sætra
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
87'
Ahmad Faqa → Stanley Wilson
8th Substitution
80'
76'
S. Øverby → Victor Larsson
7th Substitution
76'
Emeka Nnamani → Marius Söderbäck
6th Substitution
Stanley Wilson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
63'
M. Hallberg → N. Chourak
5th Substitution
Erik Flataker → Kevin Filling
3rd Substitution
59'
Amel Mujanic → Axel Kouame
4th Substitution
59'
Lukas Bergquist → Charlie Pavey
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Achraf Dari
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Áron Csongvai → Dino Besirovic
1st Substitution
28'
Johan Hove
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
26'
Charlie Pavey
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
18'
6th Yellowcard
18'
CONCLUSION
AIK's disciplined 1-0 triumph over stronger-rated Kalmar underscores their home fortitude, converting limited possession into a clean-sheet win via first-half precision. Kalmar's possession edge yielded nothing, as AIK's backline neutralized threats seamlessly. With market alignment and minimal deviation confirming a fair outcome, this performance signals AIK's rising momentum in the Allsvenskan race. Kalmar must sharpen finishing to match their potential, but AIK's tactical poise delivers three points that propel their campaign forward effectively.