Odense BK vs Randers FC Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Nature Energy Park Sun, 19 Apr - 12:00 PM
Superliga
Odense BK ODE
3 Winner 1
Randers FC RDF
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 12:00 PM
Round 5 Relegation Round
Jona Niemiec - 19'
Leeroy Owusu - 71'
Marcus McCoy - 86'
Goal
|
Goal
Cyril Edudzi - 60'

CONTEXT

Odense BK secured a 3-1 home victory over Randers FC, asserting dominance after a 1-0 halftime lead. The hosts built on their early advantage with two second-half goals, while Randers managed a consolation strike. Possession tilted slightly to the visitors at 51%, but Odense's efficiency proved decisive in converting chances. No red cards marred the contest, enabling uninterrupted play and highlighting tactical discipline from the winners. Identified pre-match as the stronger team, Odense delivered a performance marked by a significant 58.5% structural deviation in their favor. This outcome aligned with pre-match market probabilities, reflecting expected superiority without major surprises in efficiency or events.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Odense BK recorded a significant 58.5% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments influenced the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards caused zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Tykgaard
M. Tykgaard
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.66
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
A. Petersen
A. Petersen
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.66
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
J. Bøgelund
J. Bøgelund
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.66
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
V. Skytte
V. Skytte
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.66
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Odense BK A. Zorniger
A. Zorniger
VS
Randers FC R. Bertelsen
R. Bertelsen
1.47
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.93
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Silkeborg IF Rank: L
Fredericia Rank: W
Vejle Boldklub Rank: D
FC København Rank: W
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: L
FC København Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC København Rank: L
Vejle Boldklub Rank: D
Silkeborg IF Rank: L
Fredericia Rank: W
FC København Rank: W
Fredericia Rank: L
20
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
20 - 19 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Odense BK
41.46%
Draw
27.44%
Away Randers FC
31.1%

Movement

Changes since opening
Odense BK
-56.43%
Draw
+25.52%
Randers FC
+30.9%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.73
18.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Odense BK
Randers FC
Power Score
22.73
18.46
League Position
8
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Odense BK — Opponent-weighted form score
Randers FC — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Odense BK Randers FC

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Odense BK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Randers FC

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Odense BK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Randers FC
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.59
33.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.73
24.59
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Odense BK -0.91 Efficiency Index
vs
Randers FC +0.91 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Odense BK
Randers FC
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Odense BK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Randers FC
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Odense BK Randers FC
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Odense BK Randers FC
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Odense BK
Randers FC
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Odense BK
vs
Randers FC
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Odense BK Randers FC
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Odense BK 0.24
Randers FC 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Odense BK Randers FC
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Odense BK 0.02
Randers FC 0.07
Odense BK
Randers FC
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RDF had peak pressure around 58'.
  • RDF started the game with stronger pressure.
ODE Pressure RDF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RDF reached the top pressure at 58' (86.33).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 55 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Odense BK ODE Home
55 matches
Randers FC RDF Away
Match Record
20
Wins
16
19
Draws
19
16
Losses
20
Goals
64
Goals Scored
62
62
Goals Conceded
64
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:02:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
V. Røsholt Myhra
Norway
16 V. Røsholt Myhra
L. Owusu
Substitution
Netherlands
20 L. Owusu
N. Bürgy
Switzerland
5 N. Bürgy
J. Berthel Askou Harvey
Denmark
13 J. Berthel Askou Harvey
M. McCoy
Denmark
15 M. McCoy
M. Ejdum
Denmark
18 M. Ejdum
R. Falk Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
8 R. Falk Jensen
I. Ouédraogo
Burkina Faso
22 I. Ouédraogo
J. Arp
Substitution
Germany
7 J. Arp
N. Ganaus
Substitution
Germany
17 N. Ganaus
J. Niemiec
Substitution
Germany
11 J. Niemiec
P. Izzo
Australia
1 P. Izzo
N. Dyhr
Substitution
Denmark
44 N. Dyhr
W. Dammers
Netherlands
4 W. Dammers
D. Høegh
Substitution
Denmark
3 D. Høegh
S. Osman Hansen
Substitution
Denmark
24 S. Osman Hansen
J. Björkengren
Sweden
6 J. Björkengren
A. Rømer
Substitution
Denmark
28 A. Rømer
C. Edudzi
Substitution
33 C. Edudzi
M. Greve
Denmark
17 M. Greve
E. Mahmoud
France
11 E. Mahmoud
W. Caddy
Madagascar
10 W. Caddy

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 5 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Nature Energy Park
Capacity
15790
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Michael Tykgaard
Alex Petersen
Jonas Bøgelund
Victor Skytte

Statistics

Possession
ODE
48%
RDF
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 6
41 Dangerous attacks 64
49 Possession 51
6 Corners 8
6 Free kicks 15

Match Overview

15 Dribble Attempts 18
78 Ball Safe 79
10 Goal Kicks 8
8 Successful Dribbles 11
3 Assists 1
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
10 Goal Attempts 8
17 Throwins 17
6 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 3

Attacking

3 Counter Attacks 4
89 Attacks 102
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

9 Key Passes 11
84 Successful Passes Percentage 84
18 Successful Long Passes 35
474 Passes 481
50 Long Passes 53
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 66
399 Successful Passes 406

Defensive

12 Tackles 11
38 Duels Won 49
5 Saves 3
8 Interceptions 11

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 29
1 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

15 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Michael Tykgaard

Starting XI ▼

16
Viljar Myhra
Viljar Myhra Goalkeeper
6.87
5
Nicolas Bürgy
Nicolas Bürgy Defender
6.71
13
Julius Berthel Askou
Julius Berthel Askou Defender
6.92
15
Marcus McCoy
Marcus McCoy Defender
6.78
20
Leeroy Owusu
Leeroy Owusu Defender
6.85
24
Yaya Bojang
Yaya Bojang
Defender90+5'
6.67
7
Fiete Arp
Fiete Arp Midfielder
7.2
14
Gustav Grubbe
Gustav Grubbe
Midfielder86'
6.49
8
Rasmus Falk
Rasmus Falk Midfielder
7.02
23
William Martin
William Martin
Midfielder46'
6.5
18
Max Ejdum
Max Ejdum Midfielder
6.96
22
Ismahila Ouédraogo
Ismahila Ouédraogo Midfielder
6.88
11
Jona Niemiec
Jona Niemiec Attacker
6.72
31
Jay-Roy Grot
Jay-Roy Grot
Attacker66'
6.84
17
Noah Ganaus
Noah Ganaus Attacker
7.01
6
Jakob Bonde
Jakob Bonde
Midfielder90+5'
Referee : Michael Tykgaard

Starting XI ▼

1
Paul Izzo
Paul Izzo Goalkeeper
7.04
3
Daniel Høegh
Daniel Høegh Defender
7.11
2
Lucas Lissens
Lucas Lissens
Defender66'
6.64
4
Wessel Dammers
Wessel Dammers Defender
7.15
24
Sabil Hansen
Sabil Hansen Defender
6.85
23
Benjamin Orn
Benjamin Orn
Defender46'
6.2
44
Nikolas Dyhr
Nikolas Dyhr Defender
6.68
15
M. Sjølstad
M. Sjølstad
Defender79'
6.46
6
John Björkengren
John Björkengren Midfielder
6.96
11
Elies Mahmoud
Elies Mahmoud Midfielder
7.12
17
Mathias Greve
Mathias Greve Midfielder
7.08
28
André Römer
André Römer Midfielder
6.7
14
Frederik Lauenborg
Frederik Lauenborg
Midfielder66'
6.71
33
Cyril Edudzi
Cyril Edudzi Midfielder
6.73
19
Musa Touré
Musa Touré
Attacker79'
6.75
10
Warren Caddy
Warren Caddy Attacker
6.71

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jakob Bonde → Noah Ganaus
10th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Yaya Bojang → Leeroy Owusu
9th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Marcus McCoy
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
86'
Event
Gustav Grubbe → Fiete Arp
8th Substitution
86'
79'
Event
M. Sjølstad → Nikolas Dyhr
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Musa Touré → Cyril Edudzi
7th Substitution
Event
Leeroy Owusu
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
71'
Event
Jay-Roy Grot → Jona Niemiec
3rd Substitution
66'
66'
Event
Frederik Lauenborg → André Römer
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Lucas Lissens → Daniel Høegh
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Cyril Edudzi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
William Martin → Rasmus Falk
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Benjamin Orn → Sabil Hansen
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jona Niemiec
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
19'

CONCLUSION

Odense BK's 3-1 triumph over Randers FC exemplified their pre-identified strength, turning near-even possession into a clear win through sharp finishing. The significant structural deviation amplified their control, while market alignment confirmed the anticipated result. Absence of red cards or disruptions allowed inherent quality to prevail, with no efficiency shifts or events altering the narrative. This performance reinforces Odense's reliability in delivering on potential.

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