Aston Villa vs Sunderland Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Villa Park Sun, 19 Apr - 1:00 PM
Premier League
Aston Villa AVL
Versus
Sunderland SUN
KICKOFF : Sun, 19 Apr - 1:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

As the 2025/2026 Premier League season unfolds, Aston Villa hosts Sunderland at Villa Park in a regular season fixture. The home side currently occupies fourth position with a power score of 31.54, delivering a 6.8 point edge over the visitors who sit in tenth. Villa has shown inconsistency lately, recording one win, two draws and three losses across six matches after drawing their latest away game against Nottingham Forest. Sunderland arrives with stronger momentum from three wins, one draw and two defeats in six outings, including a home success over Tottenham Hotspur. This encounter highlights a structural tilt toward the hosts, yet the away team's recent displays indicate they can challenge robustly in a venue known for passionate support.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Aston Villa holds fourth place against Sunderland in tenth, backed by a 6.8 point power advantage at Villa Park where home support often amplifies their edge.
  • Form: Villa managed one win with two draws and three losses from six games after an away draw versus Nottingham Forest, whereas Sunderland secured three wins, one draw and two losses highlighted by victory over Tottenham.
  • Squad: Villa deploys an experienced lineup built for sustained Premier League campaigns while Sunderland fields an energetic group motivated to climb the standings this term.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency details stay limited yet both clubs emphasize sharp execution to convert opportunities and tighten defensive structures during key passages.
  • Transition: Rapid shifts in possession could benefit Villa through direct attacks, allowing Sunderland chances to counter effectively when the hosts overextend.
  • Set pieces: Set piece insights carry low confidence with sparse metrics available, prompting both teams to pursue advantages from dead ball deliveries and defensive organization.
  • xVariable: Atmosphere at Villa Park introduces variability that might elevate home performers while individual flair from either side remains capable of altering match direction.
  • Market: Aston Villa 57% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.5% (Δ+0%) | Sunderland 17.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
VS
Sunderland R. Le Bris
R. Le Bris
1.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nottingham Forest Rank: D
West Ham United Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: L
Chelsea Rank: L
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: L
Leeds United Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
Newcastle United Rank: W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: L
Leeds United Rank: W
AFC Bournemouth Rank: D
Fulham Rank: L
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 13 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aston Villa
56.97%
Draw
25.48%
Away Sunderland
17.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.54
24.74
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Power Score
31.54
24.74
League Position
4
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Sunderland — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aston Villa Sunderland

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 30 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aston Villa AVL Home
30 matches
Sunderland SUN Away
Match Record
12
Wins
5
13
Draws
13
5
Losses
12
Goals
39
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
39
+17
Goal Difference
-17
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T01:04:40+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. Martínez
23 D. Martínez
M. Cash
2 M. Cash
V. Nilsson Lindelöf
3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
P. Francisco Torres
14 P. Francisco Torres
L. Digne
12 L. Digne
A. Mvom Onana
24 A. Mvom Onana
Y. Tielemans
8 Y. Tielemans
J. McGinn
7 J. McGinn
R. Barkley
6 R. Barkley
M. Rogers
27 M. Rogers
O. Watkins
11 O. Watkins
R. Roefs
22 R. Roefs
R. Mandava
17 R. Mandava
O. Alderete Fernández
15 O. Alderete Fernández
N. Mukiele Mulere
20 N. Mukiele Mulere
L. O'Nien
13 L. O'Nien
G. Xhaka
34 G. Xhaka
N. Sadiki
27 N. Sadiki
E. Le Fée
28 E. Le Fée
M. Diarra
19 M. Diarra
C. Rigg
11 C. Rigg
B. Brobbey
9 B. Brobbey

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Villa Park
Capacity
42640
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Samuel Barrott
Richard West
Tim Wood
Tim Robinson

Expected Lineup

Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
6.93
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Centre Forward
6.8
3
Victor Lindelöf
Victor Lindelöf Right Back
6.63
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Right Back
6.94
6
Ross Barkley
Ross Barkley Attacking Midfield
6.83
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Defensive Midfield
7.17
24
Amadou Onana
Amadou Onana Defensive Midfield
6.97
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Left Wing
6.91
7
John McGinn
John McGinn Right Wing
6.84
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Left Back
6.73
14
Pau Torres
Pau Torres Left Back
6.76
Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

22
Robin Roefs
Robin Roefs Goalkeeper
7.05
9
Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey Centre Forward
6.71
13
Luke O'Nien
Luke O'Nien Right Back
6.37
15
Omar Alderete
Omar Alderete Left Back
6.89
17
Reinildo Mandava
Reinildo Mandava Left Back
6.77
19
Habib Diarra
Habib Diarra Attacking Midfield
6.73
20
Nordi Mukiele
Nordi Mukiele Right Back
7.03
11
Chris Rigg
Chris Rigg Right Wing
6.7
27
Noah Sadiki
Noah Sadiki Defensive Midfield
6.73
28
Enzo Le Fée
Enzo Le Fée Left Wing
6.9
34
Granit Xhaka
Granit Xhaka Defensive Midfield
7.13

CONCLUSION

Aston Villa enters this Premier League meeting poised to utilize their superior standing and familiar surroundings at Villa Park for a strong showing. Sunderland brings encouraging recent results that could test the hosts if defensive focus slips. The power scores point toward home control, yet the visitors aim to harness their form to create disruptions and seek valuable points. Both sides possess talent to generate fluid passages and capitalize on mistakes. Villa needs to elevate beyond their mixed record while containing Sunderland's forward momentum from notable wins. In the end, the hosts appear equipped to claim victory although the away team retains potential to deliver a competitive surprise.

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