Everton vs Liverpool Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Hill Dickinson Stadium Sun, 19 Apr - 1:00 PM
Premier League
Everton EVE
Versus
Liverpool LIV
KICKOFF : Sun, 19 Apr - 1:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the 2025/2026 Premier League season Everton welcome Liverpool to Hill Dickinson Stadium for a Regular Season Merseyside derby full of historical rivalry. Liverpool arrive as the stronger side with a power score of 27.03 compared to Everton's 25.11, giving them a 1.9-point edge. Both teams sit close in the table, Everton in eighth and Liverpool in fifth, and both carry identical recent form of three wins, one draw and two losses from six matches. Everton's last result was a draw away at Brentford while Liverpool beat Fulham at home. Form scores are level at 55.56 apiece, suggesting a tight tactical battle where squad depth, midfield control and defensive organisation will shape the outcome. The fixture offers little margin for error and plenty of scope for individual moments to decide the result.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Everton in 8th host 5th-placed Liverpool at Hill Dickinson Stadium in a traditional high-intensity derby.
  • Form: Both sides share a 55.56 form score and W3 D1 L2 record from six matches, pointing to evenly balanced momentum.
  • Squad: Liverpool hold a clear power-score advantage (27.03 vs 25.11), suggesting greater overall squad quality and depth.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics remain unavailable, so both teams must lean on recent match observations rather than advanced data.
  • Transition: Quick transitions could prove decisive; Liverpool's edge in squad pace may allow them to exploit turnovers more effectively.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece data shows low confidence and proxy values only, offering no clear advantage for either Everton or Liverpool.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables are unavailable, shifting focus onto traditional indicators such as work rate and organisation.
  • Market: Everton 30.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.6% (Δ+0%) | Liverpool 42.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Everton D. Moyes
D. Moyes
VS
Liverpool A. Slot
A. Slot
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brentford Rank: D
Chelsea Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: L
Burnley Rank: W
Newcastle United Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fulham Rank: W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: L
West Ham United Rank: W
Nottingham Forest Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 20 - 30
30
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Everton
30.31%
Draw
27.64%
Away Liverpool
42.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.11
27.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Everton
Liverpool
Power Score
25.11
27.03
League Position
8
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Everton — Opponent-weighted form score
Liverpool — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Everton Liverpool

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 56 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Everton EVE Home
56 matches
Liverpool LIV Away
Match Record
6
Wins
30
20
Draws
20
30
Losses
6
Goals
44
Goals Scored
88
88
Goals Conceded
44
-44
Goal Difference
+44
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T01:04:46+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
J. Pickford
1 J. Pickford
J. O´Brien
15 J. O´Brien
J. Tarkowski
6 J. Tarkowski
J. Branthwaite
32 J. Branthwaite
V. Mykolenko
16 V. Mykolenko
I. Gueye
27 I. Gueye
J. Garner
37 J. Garner
D. McNeil
7 D. McNeil
K. Dewsbury-Hall
22 K. Dewsbury-Hall
I. Ndiaye
10 I. Ndiaye
N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
9 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
G. Mamardashvili
25 G. Mamardashvili
A. Robertson
26 A. Robertson
V. van Dijk
4 V. van Dijk
I. Konaté
5 I. Konaté
J. Frimpong
30 J. Frimpong
R. Gravenberch
38 R. Gravenberch
D. Szoboszlai
8 D. Szoboszlai
R. Ngumoha
73 R. Ngumoha
F. Wirtz
7 F. Wirtz
M. Salah
11 M. Salah
C. Gakpo
18 C. Gakpo

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Hill Dickinson Stadium
Capacity
52888
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Chris Kavanagh
Daniel Cook
James Mainwaring
Andy Madley

Expected Lineup

Referee : Chris Kavanagh

Starting XI ▼

1
Jordan Pickford
Jordan Pickford Goalkeeper
6.86
9
Beto
Beto Centre Forward
6.7
6
James Tarkowski
James Tarkowski Right Back
7.14
15
Jake O'Brien
Jake O'Brien Right Back
6.7
16
Vitaliy Mykolenko
Vitaliy Mykolenko Left Back
6.68
32
Jarrad Branthwaite
Jarrad Branthwaite Left Back
6.89
37
James Garner
James Garner Defensive Midfield
7.35
7
Dwight McNeil
Dwight McNeil Right Wing
6.76
10
Iliman Ndiaye
Iliman Ndiaye Left Wing
6.96
22
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Attacking Midfield
7.1
27
Idrissa Gueye
Idrissa Gueye Defensive Midfield
6.9
Referee : Chris Kavanagh

Starting XI ▼

25
Giorgi Mamardashvili
Giorgi Mamardashvili Goalkeeper
6.89
18
Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo Centre Forward
7.11
4
Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk Left Back
7.12
5
Ibrahima Konaté
Ibrahima Konaté Right Back
6.95
7
Florian Wirtz
Florian Wirtz Attacking Midfield
7.06
8
Dominik Szoboszlai
Dominik Szoboszlai Defensive Midfield
7.37
11
Mohamed Salah
Mohamed Salah Right Wing
6.88
26
Andrew Robertson
Andrew Robertson Left Back
6.68
73
Rio Ngumoha
Rio Ngumoha Left Wing
6.89
30
Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong Right Back
6.71
38
Ryan Gravenberch
Ryan Gravenberch Defensive Midfield
7.09

CONCLUSION

Liverpool hold a modest power advantage and slightly superior league standing, yet the identical recent form records indicate this derby will be hard to predict. Everton's home environment at Hill Dickinson Stadium traditionally levels the playing field, forcing Liverpool to show patience and precision. With limited efficiency and set-piece data available, both managers will emphasise midfield control and rapid transitions. Small tactical adjustments and individual quality are likely to settle the contest. Liverpool possess the tools to edge a tight game, but Everton remain well equipped to frustrate their neighbours and secure a share of the points in an engaging, competitive fixture.

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