Everton vs Liverpool Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Hill Dickinson Stadium Sun, 19 Apr - 1:00 PM
Premier League
Everton EVE
1 Winner 2
Liverpool LIV
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Beto - 54'
Goal
|
Goal
Virgil van Dijk - 90+10'

CONTEXT

In a pulsating Merseyside Derby at Goodison Park, Liverpool edged Everton 2-1 to claim bragging rights. The Reds struck first, leading 1-0 at halftime with 56% possession against Everton's 44%, dictating the tempo early. Everton mounted a comeback in the second half, pulling one back to set up a tense finish, but Liverpool's resilience shone through. No red cards marred the contest, allowing both sides to play freely. Identified pre-match as the stronger outfit, Liverpool delivered a win with minimal structural deviation of just 4.8%, fully aligning with market projections. Efficiency stayed in line with expectations, underscoring a composed performance devoid of major second-half adjustments. This victory reinforces Liverpool's dominance in the fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Liverpool's win showed minimal structural deviation at 4.8 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment fully realized in Liverpool's victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events shifted momentum.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Kavanagh

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Cook

1st Assistant

J. Mainwaring

2nd Assistant

A. Madley

4th Official

Everton D. Moyes
D. Moyes
VS
Liverpool A. Slot
A. Slot
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brentford Rank: D
Chelsea Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: L
Burnley Rank: W
Newcastle United Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fulham Rank: W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: L
West Ham United Rank: W
Nottingham Forest Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 20 - 30
30

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Everton
0.19%
Draw
4.58%
Away Liverpool
95.23%

Movement

Changes since opening
Everton
0%
Draw
-0.51%
Liverpool
+0.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.83
27.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Everton
Liverpool
Power Score
24.83
27.07
League Position
10
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Everton — Opponent-weighted form score
Liverpool — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Everton Liverpool

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Everton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Liverpool

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Everton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Liverpool
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.39
28.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.13
27.39
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Everton -0.08 Efficiency Index
vs
Liverpool +0.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Everton
Liverpool
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Everton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Liverpool
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Everton Liverpool
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Everton Liverpool
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Everton
Liverpool
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Everton
vs
Liverpool
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Everton Liverpool
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Everton 0.24
Liverpool 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Everton Liverpool
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Everton 0.06
Liverpool 0.02
Everton
Liverpool
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • EVE had peak pressure around 74'.
  • EVE started the game with stronger pressure.
EVE Pressure LIV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: EVE reached the top pressure at 74' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 56 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Everton EVE Home
56 matches
Liverpool LIV Away
Match Record
6
Wins
30
20
Draws
20
30
Losses
6
Goals
44
Goals Scored
88
88
Goals Conceded
44
-44
Goal Difference
+44

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:03:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Pickford
England
1 J. Pickford
J. O´Brien
Republic of Ireland
15 J. O´Brien
J. Tarkowski
England
6 J. Tarkowski
J. Branthwaite
Substitution
England
32 J. Branthwaite
V. Mykolenko
Ukraine
16 V. Mykolenko
I. Gueye
Senegal
27 I. Gueye
J. Garner
England
37 J. Garner
D. McNeil
Substitution
England
7 D. McNeil
K. Dewsbury-Hall
England
22 K. Dewsbury-Hall
I. Ndiaye
Senegal
10 I. Ndiaye
N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
Substitution
Portugal
9 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
Pitch
G. Mamardashvili
Substitution
Georgia
25 G. Mamardashvili
A. Robertson
Substitution
Scotland
26 A. Robertson
V. van Dijk
Netherlands
4 V. van Dijk
I. Konaté
France
5 I. Konaté
C. Jones
England
17 C. Jones
R. Gravenberch
Netherlands
38 R. Gravenberch
D. Szoboszlai
Hungary
8 D. Szoboszlai
C. Gakpo
Substitution
Netherlands
18 C. Gakpo
F. Wirtz
Substitution
Germany
7 F. Wirtz
M. Salah
Egypt
11 M. Salah
A. Isak
Substitution
Sweden
9 A. Isak

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Hill Dickinson Stadium
Capacity :
52888
Attendance :
52585
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Chris Kavanagh
Daniel Cook
James Mainwaring
Andy Madley

Statistics

Possession
EVE
46%
LIV
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 4
41 Dangerous attacks 35
44 Possession 56
1 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Successful Dribbles 5
2 Injuries 2
19 Successful Headers 13
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
81 Ball Safe 96
18 Throwins 21
5 Goal Kicks 7
8 Goal Attempts 10
10 Dribble Attempts 14
1 Assists 2
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
87 Attacks 112

Possession

284 Successful Passes 410
371 Passes 491
23 Successful Long Passes 18
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
61 Long Passes 56
77 Successful Passes Percentage 84
9 Key Passes 13

Defensive

28 Tackles 13
8 Interceptions 9
62 Duels Won 37
3 Saves 3

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 10
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Chris Kavanagh

Starting XI ▼

1
Jordan Pickford
Jordan Pickford Goalkeeper
6.86
6
James Tarkowski
James Tarkowski Defender
7.14
15
Jake O'Brien
Jake O'Brien Defender
6.7
16
Vitaliy Mykolenko
Vitaliy Mykolenko Defender
6.68
32
Jarrad Branthwaite
Jarrad Branthwaite Defender
6.89
5
Michael Keane
Michael Keane
Defender87'
7.02
7
Dwight McNeil
Dwight McNeil Midfielder
6.76
19
Tyrique George
Tyrique George
Attacker80'
6.44
10
Iliman Ndiaye
Iliman Ndiaye Midfielder
6.96
22
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Midfielder
7.1
27
Idrissa Gueye
Idrissa Gueye Midfielder
6.9
37
James Garner
James Garner Midfielder
7.35
9
Beto
Beto Attacker
6.7
11
Thierno Barry
Thierno Barry
Attacker73'
6.61
Referee : Chris Kavanagh

Starting XI ▼

25
Giorgi Mamardashvili
Giorgi Mamardashvili Goalkeeper
6.89
28
Freddie Woodman
Freddie Woodman
Goalkeeper58'
6.68
4
Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk Defender
7.12
5
Ibrahima Konaté
Ibrahima Konaté Defender
6.95
17
Curtis Jones
Curtis Jones Defender
6.81
26
Andrew Robertson
Andrew Robertson Defender
6.68
6
Milos Kerkez
Milos Kerkez
Defender86'
6.79
7
Florian Wirtz
Florian Wirtz Midfielder
7.06
10
Alexis Mac Allister
Alexis Mac Allister
Midfielder84'
6.84
8
Dominik Szoboszlai
Dominik Szoboszlai Midfielder
7.37
11
Mohamed Salah
Mohamed Salah Midfielder
6.88
18
Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo Midfielder
7.11
30
Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong
Defender84'
6.71
38
Ryan Gravenberch
Ryan Gravenberch Midfielder
7.09
9
Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak Attacker
6.61
73
Rio Ngumoha
Rio Ngumoha
Attacker72'
6.89

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
James Garner
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+12'
90+10'
Event
Virgil van Dijk
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Michael Keane → Jarrad Branthwaite
8th Substitution
87'
86'
Event
Milos Kerkez → Andrew Robertson
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Jeremie Frimpong → Cody Gakpo
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Alexis Mac Allister → Florian Wirtz
5th Substitution
Event
Tyrique George → Dwight McNeil
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Thierno Barry → Beto
3rd Substitution
73'
72'
Event
Rio Ngumoha → Alexander Isak
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Freddie Woodman → Giorgi Mamardashvili
1st Substitution
Event
Beto
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
54'
1ST-HALF
29'
Event
Mohamed Salah
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Iliman Ndiaye
Goal disallowed
28'
Event
Jordan Pickford
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
22'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Offside called against Everton. Tyrique George is offside.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Rio Ngumoha of Liverpool shot with his right foot from the left side of the box.
90
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Szoboszlai's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Alexis Mac Allister provided the assist.
90
Update Update
Ibrahima Konaté of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Curtis Jones of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Thierno Barry from Everton committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Everton losing 1-2 to Liverpool.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by James Garner of Everton.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
James Garner of Everton receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Liverpool takes the lead 2-1 against Everton. Virgil van Dijk scores with a header from close range, assisted by Dominik Szoboszlai's cross following a corner.
90
Update Update
Jake O'Brien of Everton won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 11 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Handball by Jeremie Frimpong for Liverpool.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Jake O'Brien concedes.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexis Mac Allister - Liverpool.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexis Mac Allister - Liverpool.
88
Update Update
Idrissa Gueye from Everton won a free kick in defense.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Michael Keane replaces Jarrad Branthwaite due to injury.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Milos Kerkez replaces Andy Robertson.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Jeremie Frimpong replaces Cody Gakpo.
84
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Jarrad Branthwaite from Everton.
83
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch misses a chance for Liverpool, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but sending it high. The assist was provided by Cody Gakpo.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Alexis Mac Allister replaces Florian Wirtz.
82
Update Update
Thierno Barry from Everton commits a foul.
82
Update Update
Ibrahima Konaté of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Tyrique George replaces Dwight McNeil.
77
Attempt Attempt
Rio Ngumoha's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Cody Gakpo.
76
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. James Garner from Everton took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
75
Update Update
Curtis Jones of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
75
Update Update
Foul committed by James Garner of Everton.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Thierno Barry replaces Beto due to injury.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Rio Ngumoha replaces Alexander Isak.
71
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Beto from Everton.
69
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Ibrahima Konaté from Liverpool.
69
Attempt Attempt
Beto from Everton had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box, but it went high and wide to the right.
66
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Andy Robertson of Liverpool takes a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes close but misses. Assist by Florian Wirtz.
64
Update Update
Curtis Jones of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Dominik Szoboszlai of Liverpool.
61
Update Update
Cody Gakpo's header from the left side of the box is blocked after a cross from Mohamed Salah.
61
Update Update
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall of Everton won a free kick in an attacking position.
60
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Dwight McNeil of Everton shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but it's high and wide to the left. The assist comes from Jake O'Brien.
59
Update Update
Foul committed by James Tarkowski of Everton.
59
Attempt Attempt
Cody Gakpo from Liverpool misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
59
Update Update
Florian Wirtz of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Freddie Woodman replaces Giorgi Mamardashvili due to injury.
55
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Giorgi Mamardashvili of Liverpool.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Beto scores for Everton with a right-footed shot from close range into the right corner, assisted by Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.
53
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch from Liverpool won a free kick on the left wing.
53
Update Update
Idrissa Gueye from Everton commits a foul.
50
Update Update
Cody Gakpo of Liverpool commits a foul.
50
Update Update
Jake O'Brien of Everton won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Everton 0, Liverpool 1.
45
Attempt Attempt
Dwight McNeil from Everton missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box. Beto provided the assist.
45
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Szoboszlai's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Cody Gakpo.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Everton 0, Liverpool 1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Alexander Isak of Liverpool takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it is saved.
42
Corner Corner
Liverpool win a corner after Jordan Pickford concedes.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Jordan Pickford concedes.
37
Update Update
Andy Robertson of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
37
Update Update
Beto fouled Everton.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Everton after a concession by Mohamed Salah.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Curtis Jones of Liverpool.
34
Update Update
Vitalii Mykolenko from Everton has been awarded a free kick in defense.
33
Update Update
Cody Gakpo of Liverpool commits a foul.
33
Update Update
Jake O'Brien of Everton won a free kick in defense.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Liverpool takes the lead 1-0 against Everton. Mohamed Salah scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Cody Gakpo's through ball.
29
Attempt Attempt
Cody Gakpo of Liverpool attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box. The shot is saved by Everton's goalkeeper, Jordan Pickford, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Florian Wirtz, who provided a through ball.
28
Update Update
VAR decision: No goal. The match remains 0-0 between Everton and Liverpool.
27
Corner Corner
Goal! Everton leads 1-0 against Liverpool. Iliman Ndiaye scores for Everton with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Jake O'Brien's cross.
27
Update Update
Goal ruled out by VAR! Iliman Ndiaye scores for Everton, but the goal is overturned after a VAR review.
25
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. James Tarkowski from Everton takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it is saved.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Dominik Szoboszlai - Liverpool.
24
Update Update
Iliman Ndiaye from Everton won a free kick on the left wing.
22
Update Update
Idrissa Gueye of Everton won a free kick in defense.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Virgil van Dijk - Liverpool.
22
Corner Corner
Liverpool wins a corner after Jarrad Branthwaite concedes.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jordan Pickford of Everton receives a yellow card.
21
Corner Corner
Liverpool wins a corner after James Tarkowski concedes.
21
Attempt Attempt
Cody Gakpo of Liverpool has a shot from outside the box, but it is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Dwight McNeil of Everton had a right-footed shot from outside the box that was blocked.
17
Corner Corner
Liverpool win a corner after Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall concedes.
16
Attempt Attempt
Beto from Everton had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box. Jarrad Branthwaite provided the assist.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Everton after Giorgi Mamardashvili concedes.
14
Update Update
Iliman Ndiaye of Everton won a free kick in an attacking position.
14
Update Update
Idrissa Gueye of Everton won a free kick in the attacking area.
10
Update Update
Idrissa Gueye of Everton won a free kick in defense.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Gravenberch for Liverpool.
9
Corner Corner
Liverpool win a corner after Dwight McNeil concedes.
6
Attempt Attempt
Beto from Everton attempts a header from the center of the box, but it's saved.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Gravenberch - Liverpool.
3
Update Update
Iliman Ndiaye of Everton won a free kick on the left wing.

CONCLUSION

Liverpool's 2-1 derby win over Everton exemplifies their superior quality, converting halftime dominance into three vital points despite Everton's late push. With 56% possession and no disruptions from red cards, the Reds maintained control, their minimal 4.8% deviation and market alignment signaling a textbook stronger-team performance. Efficiency in line with norms highlights tactical discipline, while absent xG data spotlights raw stats favoring Liverpool. Everton's resolve earned respect, but this result propels Liverpool forward, intensifying the title race pressure on rivals.

Everton vs Liverpool preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.